The Hard Numbers - Super Rugby Week 5
Another week of Super Rugby, another five dollars to throw away on a multi at the TAB.
RugbyPass Employee of the Month Runner-Up Sam Smith hit on six of his seven picks last week, so I will try and emulate that scintillating form in week five (and no doubt, I too will be let down by the Blues – Sam’s only incorrect pick last week).
My $5 multi will turn into a tidy $81.80 if every game comes off. On to the picks!
Chiefs v Bulls
- The Chiefs are undefeated in their last four games against the Bulls (W3, D1), turning around a four-game losing streak against them prior to that run.
- The Chiefs have won their last eight games at home against teams visiting from outside New Zealand, their longest ever winning streak in such fixtures.
- The Bulls have won only one of their last 12 games in New Zealand, with their last victory coming against the Blues in Round 4, 2013.
- The Chiefs haven’t lost a scrum on their own feed at home since Round 3 last season, and have finished three of six games since without losing a lineout either.
- Roelof Smit has won eight turnovers so far this campaign, more than anyother player, all of those have been jackals.
My pick: Chiefs. The Chiefs are heavy favourites at home, paying just $1.08 for a win with the points line set at -17.5. As Sam said last week, “simply put, the Bulls suck shit away from home”.
Highlanders v Crusaders
- The Crusaders have won nine of their last 11 games against the Highlanders, including each of their last three meetings.
- The Highlanders have won their last eight games on home turf; the last time they won more in succession at home was a 13-game glut from 2000 to 2002.
- The Crusaders will be out to avoid consecutive losses in the regular season for the first time since April 2015.
- The Highlanders have made 15+ offloads in four of their last five games on home turf, making an average of 16 offloads per game in that time.
- Waisake Naholo has scored eight tries in his last five games against the Crusaders, with each coming in the form of a brace.
My pick: This is easily the game of the round. I’ll pick the Crusaders. They haven’t lost two in a row in three years! The TAB has this game dead even. Might be worth throwing a couple of dollars on a draw?
Brumbies v Sharks
- Three of the last four games between these teams has seen the away side on the day emerge victorious, including a 27-22 win to the Sharks in their last meeting.
- The Brumbies haven’t won a home game against a team from outside Australia since Round 14, 2016 (v Sunwolves), losing six such games since.
- The Sharks have left with competition points from all but one of their last seven games in Australia, picking up four wins and two losing bonus points in that time.
- The Sharks have made 18 clean breaks per game this season, more than any other side in the competition; only two players have made more clean breaks than Makazole Mapimpi (8) this season, who has played just twice.
- Only Damian de Allende (55) has made more carries this season than the Brumbies’ Isi Naisarani (48).
My pick: Sharks. Home advantage hasn’t meant anything to this Brumbies side. They’ve got a new combination at 10 and 12. I don’t like it.
Stormers v Blues
- The Stormers have won five of their last six games against the Blues, with their sole loss in that time coming by a margin of just one point.
- The Stormers have won nine of their last 10 regular season home games, only losing to fellow South African side the Lions in that time.
- The Blues will be looking for a second win in South Africa in a single season for the first time since 2008, when they picked up big wins against the Lions (55-10) and Cheetahs (50-26).
- The Blues have made an average gain of 542m per game this season, nearly 30m per game more than any other squad.oKobus van Dyk has made 29 tackles this campaign, the most of any player who is yet to miss an attempt.
My pick: I’m going to pick the Blues (that means definitely put money on the Stormers). The Blues are favourites at the TAB, but we all remember what happened the last time that was the case. The Stormers have also been battling the flu this week.
Lions v Sunwolves
- The Lions have taken wins in each of their previous two games against the Sunwolves, including a 94-7 demolition in their last meeting which stands as the second biggest win in Super Rugby history.
- The Lions haven’t lost back-to-back Super Rugby games since they opened their 2015 campaign with a string of three defeats.
- The Sunwolves continue to search for their maiden away win (L16), they’ve conceded 196 points across their last three games on the road.
- The Sunwolves have the best tackle success rate (87%) of any team so far in 2018.
- Elton Jantjies has provided five try assists this season, the equal most of any player (with Will Genia), as well as scoring one try of his own.
My pick: Don’t expect any miracles from the Sunwolves this week. The Lions might not put up 94 points this time, but I think they’ll put it to bed pretty early. They’re paying $1.01 and the points line is a comical -33.5.
Jaguares v Reds
- The Jaguares picked up a 22-8 win in their only previous meeting with the Reds.
- The Argentine squad have won four of their previous six games against Australian opposition, including each of their last three.
- The Queensland side have won just one of their last 20 games outside Australia, conceding an average of 35 points per game in that span.
- The Reds have gained just 350m per game this season, fewer than any other team.
- Emiliano Boffelli has scored four tries in his last four games overall for the Jaguares, as well has having scored four tries in his last four games at home for the Argentinian outfit.
My pick: Jaguares. Always put up a fight at home. The Reds don’t do too well outside of Australia, I don’t think this game will change that.
Waratahs v Rebels
- The Waratahs have won 11 of their previous 13 meetings between these teams, managing to pick up a losing bonus point in their only two losses to the Rebels.
- The Waratahs have scored only five first-half tries across their last six games, failing to find the whitewash in the opening stanza twice in that time.
- The Rebels will be looking for back-to-back wins away from home for the first time since Round 6, 2016, which included a 21-17 win over the ‘Tahs.
- The Waratahs are the only team yet to miss an attempt at goal; theHighlanders (92%) are the only other team with a goal kicking accuracy above 90%.
- Sefanaia Naivalu has an average gain of 16m per carry this season, the most of any player in the competition to have made at least 10 carries.
My pick: Rebels. The only upset I’ve picked this round – they’re paying $1.97. I would love to see the Rebels win four on the trot to start the season after they won just one game last year. The Waratahs have been absolutely uninspiring through the first four weeks.
Thanks to Opta for providing all of the facts and statistics.
Comments on RugbyPass
To me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
26 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
2 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
26 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
48 Go to commentsNot too bad. Questions at 6, lock and HB for me. The ABs will be a lot stronger once Jordan and Roigard return. Also, work needs to be made to secure Frizzell back for next season and maybe also Mo’unga; they’re just wasting time playing in japan
26 Go to commentsOn the title, i wonder for many of those people it is a case something like a belief in working smarter, not harder?
1 Go to commentsForget Sotutu. One of those whose top level is Super Rugby. Id take a punt on Wallace Sititi Finau ahead of Glass body Blackadder.
26 Go to commentsI’m a pensioner so I've been around a bit. My opinion of SBW is he is an elite athlete and a great New Zealander and roll model. He has been to the top and knows what he's talking about. To all the negative comments regarding SBW the typical New Zealand way, cut that tall poppy down.
17 Go to commentsI'm not listening to a guy moralise over others when this is the guy who walked out mid season on Canterbury RLFC when he had a contract with them, what a hypocrite. Those praising him are a joke.
17 Go to commentsI’d put Finau at 6 instead of Blackadder but that’s the only change I’d make. Can’t wait to see who Razor picks.
26 Go to commentsTamati Williams, Codie Taylor, and Same Cane? Not sure about Hoskins Sotutu at test level. Wasn’t that impressive last season. Need a balance between experience and talent/youth.
26 Go to commentsInteresting insight. Fantastic athlete, and a genuine human being.
17 Go to commentsThey played at night in Suva last weekend and it’s an afternoon game forecast for 19 degrees in Canberra this weekend. Heat change is a non issue.
1 Go to commentsWishing Rosie a speedy recovery
1 Go to commentsObscene that SA haven’t been knocking
1 Go to commentsChances of Blackadder being injured seem too high to give him serious consideration. ABs loosie combination finally looked good with 2 committed to tackling and clearing rucks in the centre and Ardie roaming. Hoskins/Ardie together would force one of them into where they don’t excel and don’t get to use their talent, or require a change in tactics. If we continue to evolve last years systems I would take Papali’i and Finau at 6 and 7 (conceding that Blackadder will be injured) and Ardie at 8.
26 Go to commentsArdie’s preferred position 7? Where do they get these writers from? I've no idea where he's playing in Japan, but the previous two seasons he wore the 7 jersey exactly twice.
17 Go to commentsNot good to hear Ulster described as “financially troubled”. Did not think it was getting to that level. I would hope the Irish system of spreading players of talent away from Leinster would kick in now. Better to have a Leinster fringe player with Ulster or Connacht, then getting only a few games a season in Dublin. 10, for example, would seem to be a case for spreading the talent. I would not be at all adverse to a SA man coming in as head coach/DR. Ludeke is worth trying. Certainly got a long and impressive coaching career at this level…..149 games in SR, then Japan, 30 years experience. And Ulster’s ledger of successful SA coaches and players is on the positive side. Is talk of Ruan Pienaar interested in coming back as a coach…..could be a good combination with Ludeke. And Pienaar and family would have no settling in to do, one would judge. He loved life in Ulster when there, by all reports.
1 Go to commentsSome thoughts to consider here, Sam. Thanks
2 Go to commentsI think he is right, SBW is respected in RSA. The guy who never stood up is a worm. Sseems lots of NZ SBW hate, you do the crime do the time.
17 Go to comments