The Hard Numbers - Super Rugby Week 4
I’m somewhat unsurprised to have been let down by The Blues last week with my $4 TAB multi-bet falling over at the first hurdle. Being at the game live only made matters worse and the disappointment was compounded when the Reds later kicked their way to victory over the Brumbies. I was undone even further when the Sharks and Waratahs wound up in a deadlock, but let’s face it, who is ever going to pick a draw? Overall result from last week = 4/7.
Let’s take a look again at all the key stats ahead of this weekend so as to put our best foot forward with the bookies. Here I have laid down my picks and another $5 TAB multi-bet which is currently set to return a healthy $83.50.
Highlanders v Stormers
- The Highlanders have won their last two games against the Stormers, snapping a six-game losing streak against them prior.
- The Highlanders have won their last seven games on home turf, scoring 40+ points in all but one of those fixtures.
- The Stormers have now lost their last nine games in a row in New Zealand, losing by an average margin of 17 points in that time.
- The Highlanders have recorded a 100% scrum success rate in eight of their last nine home games, winning 63 of their 64 scrums in those nine games.
- Damian de Allende beat eight defenders last round, more than any other player and his most in a single game since beating 12 Brumbies’ defenders at the end of 2015.
My pick: Highlanders. Too strong at home, even when you factor in the brute force of the Stormers.
Rebels v Brumbies
- The Brumbies have won nine of the previous 13 encounters between these teams in Super Rugby history, though the Rebels picked up a two-point win in their last meeting in Melbourne.
- The Rebels will be looking for a third consecutive win for the first time in their Super Rugby history.
- The Brumbies have won one of their last four Australian derbies; they had previously won 10 such fixtures in succession.
- The Brumbies won 13 turnovers in their last start against the Rebels; only twice in the last six seasons have they won more in a single game (14 v Waratahs in Rd 4, 2017 & 14 v Cheetahs in Rd 5, 2016).
- Jack Maddocks has been directly involved in five tries this campaign (3 tries, 2 assists), more than any other player in the competition.
My pick: Rebels to continue their momentum against a Brumbies side that is trending downwards.
Hurricanes v Crusaders
- The Hurricanes have won seven of their last 10 games against the Crusaders, though only two of those 10 games were decided by double-digit margins.
- The Hurricanes have won their last four games at home against the Crusaders, previously they had won just two of 10 home games against them (D2, L6).
- The Crusaders will be looking to avoid back to back losses on the road in the regular season for the first time since May 2015.
- The Hurricanes have conceded just 15 points per game this campaign, the fewest of any team; the Rebels (18pts) are the only other team to have conceded fewer than 20 points per game.
- Julian Savea beat seven defenders last round, the equal second most of any player; the last time he made more in a single game was in Round 2, 2017 against the Rebels (8).
My pick: Hurricanes to shake their shambolic ways and sneak home at home.
Red v Bulls
- Each of the last 11 meetings between the Reds and Bulls has been won by the home team on the day; though, this will be the first meeting in Queensland since 2013.
- The Reds will be hunting for consecutive Super Rugby wins for the first time since May-June 2014.
- The Bulls have won just two of their last 19 games outside South Africa, with their last international win coming in Round 10, 2016.
- The Bulls have won 16 lineouts per game with a lineout success rate of 94%, the best of any team in either category this campaign.
- Lukhan Tui has crossed for a try once in each of his last two games at home for the Reds.
My pick: Reds. Simply put, the Bulls suck shit away from home.
Sharks v Sunwolves
- The Sharks have won each of the previous two meetings between these teams, scoring no fewer than 38 points on each occasion.
- The Sharks are now winless in three games at home; the last time they went longer without a home win was a stretch of four defeats across the 2009 and 2010 campaigns.
- The Sunwolves are yet to win on the road in Super Rugby, and have conceded 146 points in their last two games away from home.
- The Sunwolves are yet to lose a scrum on their own feed this campaign, one of just three teams yet to do so (Highlanders, Rebels).
- Robert du Preez has scored a try in each of his two games for the Sharks thus far, pulling in a points tally of 23 across those games.
My pick: Sharks. It’s going to happen, but it will be a long yet before the Sunwolves cause me an upset and actually win another game.
Lions v Blues
- The Lions have won their last three games against the Blues, though they were defeated in their seven meetings prior.
- The Lions have won four of their last six games against New Zealand opposition; however, all but one of those games came in the post-season.
- The Blues have won only one of their last 10 games in South Africa, letting two half-time leads slip in that period.
- The Lions have scored eight tries on the back of a lineout win this season, only three other teams in the competition has scored more than eight tries overall (Crusaders, Rebels, Stormers).
- Melani Nanai has an average gain of 12m per carry this season, the best of any player (min. 10 carries).
My pick: Lions. I’m not betting on the Blues ever again in my whole life for ever.
Jaguares v Waratahs
- The Jaguares ran out to a 40-27 win in their only previous encounter with the Waratahs.
- The Jaguares have lost their last four games in a row at home; they had previously never lost more than two games in a row on home turf.
- The Waratahs are winless in their last seven games outside Australia, failing to pick up a single competition point in five of those matches.
- The Jaguares have missed 109 tackles in just three games so far this campaign, more than any other team.
- Michael Hooper has crossed for a try in each of his two games for the Waratahs this season, and has missed just three of 25 tackle attempts in that time.
My pick: Jaguares. If anyone actually watches this game, let me know how it goes.
Thanks to Opta for providing all of the facts and statistics.
Comments on RugbyPass
Honestly, I am a bit lost here …. Ireland - RSA was (at least in my opinion) perhaps (from a purely technical / rugby-skills-show point of view) the pinnacle of the RWC2023 - almost flawless playing (putting aside the kicking of RSA which was the difference between the two teams), rugby at it’s very best …. if I were a Bok and after the game some Irish lads came around saying “see you in 5 weeks same place”, I definitely wouldn’t have thought of it as being in any way “arrogant”, rather a sort of jolly “if we both continue to play like this, no one could stop us” - besides, few of us fans would have, at that time, been surprised to see the same teams playing on 23 september and 28 october 2023 ….. well, we all know Ireland chose to hit a slump to keep the QF curse alive …..
133 Go to commentsThere’s value gleaned from having an All Black star running and training with your team. How many games he starts (or even where he plays in the backline) will be decided on a week by week basis based on the needs for that week. But the overall learning and growth for all concerned, I’d think, is massively beneficial. Especially for Irish players.
7 Go to commentsSon, whith just " raw athlete “ , you are able to beat “ better rugby players “ by 74 points…. May be England should recruit in athletics….
1 Go to commentsPffft. It’s not a one-way street bud and Irish teams don’t seem to have had an issue taking kiwi players previously.
7 Go to commentsParticularly great to have captain Scott Barrett back after going off last week for the Crusaders. Codie Taylor a real leader and mighty Tamaiti Williams join Fletcher Newell in the front row. Those 2 will make a big difference. Great bench with the likes of Tom Christie, Jamie Hannah etc who are playing well. Should be a great derby.
1 Go to commentsDoes a blitz defence not have a weekness against a well-placed grubber kick, perhaps angled cleverly. All the defence is up and the full-back can only cover so much ground. Thoughts?
28 Go to commentsWhile Iose is destructive in the Canes set-up, he is not big for an international 8 and could struggle against the top teams. With his speed, he could be developed into a seven but, as Ben points out, he doesn’t show a scavenging game with the Canes or make dominating tackles. Sotutu has shown a step up this year and attitude plus motivation seems to be the big areas of growth. Deserves another AB shot imo.
3 Go to commentsNaholo is my only question mark for this side. He wasn’t the only one who had a forgettable game against the Brumbies but he was passive, defensively poor and generally lacked energy. Needs to get a whole lot busier for me. I would have liked to see Sullivan on that wing with Higgins on the bench (if staying with a 6-2 as BeegMike points out on here!)
3 Go to commentsWell, I am sure that Eben said exactly what he meant to say, exactly how he meant to say it. Does he strike you as a man that doesn't know arrogance when he sees it. He should know it because he has shaken the arrogance out of many foes before.
133 Go to commentsPls get it into your thick arrogant heads that the final was played by two Southern Hemisphere teams. The best against the best and that Argentina was just unlucky otherwise non of the Northetn Hemisphere teams would have seen the light of day.
133 Go to commentsAs long as New Zealand youth are involved in sport they are passionate for, and are well supported, it’s all good. I love league as well as rugby. NRL clubs have long since scouted the First 15 competitions, the NH and Japan scout super rugby and NPC. It’s a miracle there’s any players left for the all blacks to pick from.
4 Go to commentsI'm a Bok fan, so I don't say this lightly, but he is one of my all time favourite players. I am really going to miss watching him play. Thanks for many great memories. You are a true legend of the game.
3 Go to commentsBest way to deal with all of this is to play another game.
133 Go to commentsIt’s 12-15 games Luke. Ringrose has barely played in 2024 and Henshaw and Keenan have also been out for spells in the same time period. There are always injuries and for younger players to play with the likes of Barrett will be great for them. It’s just looking for negatives where there are none.
7 Go to commentsAndy Goode pushing his own agenda with very dubious considerations on refereeing performances. Luke Pearce speaking a bit of French doesn’t make him a good and adequate referee for the Champions Cup final; his latest refereeing performance in particular was not so great.
4 Go to commentsJordie knows that he has to earn the right to put on the jersey, whatever that jersey might be.
7 Go to commentsThe best outside centre in the world at one point. He will be greatly missed.
3 Go to commentsYip his great for the big moments when needed as a safa really enjoy watching him
4 Go to commentsOne that will start to come up from now on is penalties for back pushes during kick chase scrambles. Very difficult to detect. In Croke Park if you replay the Hendy NH try, you will see Furbank push Porter in the back, who collides with Larmour knocking the ball across into Hendy’s path to dot down. A more significant example was in the RWC QTR final where Arendse pushes Fickou into two other French players for the ball to spill into Arendse’s path for him to gather and run in to score SAs first try. Not cheating if you are not caught and very difficult to spot but with kicking becoming so critical I feel its an area that will referreeed/TMO-ed more.
4 Go to commentsWhat a pathetic little twit Andy Goode is, as if we care what he thinks…..😂
133 Go to comments