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England backs give them edge against Australia - Andy Goode
The tables have turned and England’s edge is in the backs rather than the forwards now, but I fully expect them to avenge the defeat at the 2015 World Cup and make it 7-0 against Australia over the past four years.
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Historically, England have dominated Australia in the forwards more often than not over the past couple of decades but the teams look fairly well-matched in that area in this one. I still expect them to have a slight edge but it’s in the backs where they have the real advantage.
They have a significant advantage at half-back, where Will Genia hasn’t been playing anywhere near the level that he has done in the past and Christian Leali’ifano tends to play a bit deeper than the other fly-halves they have.
From an England perspective, I’m pleased not to see Nic White in there as he’s been hugely impressive over the course of the past year or so and he could do some real damage off the bench.
We don’t know what selection would have looked like for England against France but Eddie Jones has reverted to the Six Nations formula as opposed to the one that has been successful in the warm-up games and the first few games of the World Cup.
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It has raised a few eyebrows but it’s the right call. Ultimately, Owen Farrell is England’s leader and best player and should be playing in his best position and steering the ship from No10.
George Ford hasn’t been dropped on form because he has been playing well, but the team hasn’t been tested yet and this will be a step up. He probably wouldn’t have had the opportunity to start anywhere near as much of late if it hadn’t been for Henry Slade’s injury either.
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Ford is one of the best fly-halves in world rugby on the front foot but you can’t hide from the fact that he has gone missing a bit in big games in the past. The timing of the change might have surprised some but you can’t account for injuries and the midfield axis of Farrell, Slade and Manu Tuilagi was the incumbent one prior to Slade’s injury.
‘Even experts, we can’t tell on some of the concussions. It's a very diverse, varied sort of reaction to head injury. Every person is different’
– Dr Rahul Jandial on what message @owen_faz not needing @rugbyworldcup HIAs sends out to grassroots rugby https://t.co/qXyyECYsjl— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 17, 2019
Of course, there will be one eye on Australia’s selection as well and, with Samu Kerevi likely to be running down the No10 channel a lot, there are question marks over Ford’s defence and this combination does look more solid defensively.
Michael Cheika might like to say that he just concentrates on his own team rather than paying attention to the opposition but he will have been analysing England in detail, especially with his defence coach, and if he hasn’t been, he hasn’t been doing his job properly.
Picking Jordan Petaia at centre is possibly an indication that he has been as well as he and Kerevi have the physical capabilities to match England’s centres. Petaia may only be 19 and this may be his first Test start at centre but he has huge potential and could be dangerous.
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England vs Australia #RWC2019 #ENGvsAUS pic.twitter.com/xz086iXRUC
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 17, 2019
The other interesting pick for England is Courtney Lawes ahead of George Kruis. I know that call has always been pretty close between the two of them and Kruis often gets in because he is the lineout leader but the Wallabies lose a lineout option by selecting Michael Hooper and David Pocock together so maybe that allows Lawes to get in because of what he offers around the park.
It will be fascinating to see Sam Underhill and Tom Curry, the Kamikaze Kids as Eddie Jones has labelled them, go up against the masters in terms of a dual openside threat in Hooper and Pocock.
Their battle and the one at scrum time could be key in deciding who gets the upper hand if referee Jerome Garces enables those contests. There won’t be much communication at the breakdown as we know and it will be who adapts best that gets the better of things there.
“You can’t be brutal and lose your head, so it’s about being physical and brutal and making those good decisions."#ENGvAUS #RWC2019 ??https://t.co/riVmRnEQlN
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 17, 2019
England will stick to their power game but will be looking to use their kick-chase to put pressure on Australia’s back three, win the territory battle and force the Wallabies into errors.
Jones has won six out of six against Cheika’s Australia with England and they will be desperate to get their first win in this fixture since the 2015 World Cup. People often say history counts for nothing but it’s always there under the surface even if it isn’t mentioned all the time and there will be an air of confidence within the England team that they have done it before.
England are favourites going into the game and they have too much power and finishing ability out wide for Australia. They will win it by eight points.
WATCH: Former Australian international Matt Giteau sits down with RugbyPass in the latest episode of Rugby World Cups Memories
Comments on RugbyPass
Thanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
81 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
13 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to commentsExciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
13 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
3 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
26 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
3 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
3 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
13 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
5 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
5 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
5 Go to commentsNot sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
26 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
2 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to commentsTrue Jordie could earn a lot more in Japan. But by choosing Leinster he’ll be playing with 1 of the best clubs in the world and can win a champions cup and URC…..
6 Go to comments