Don’t anoint Leinster as Saracens’ successors just yet, 10 weeks is a long time in rugby – Andy Goode
It was an amazing finish to the Champions Cup pool stages and, while the favourites might look obvious to everyone right now, it’ll be a whole different ball game in 10 weeks’ time.
The fact that 14 teams went into the weekend fighting for seven quarter-final places and only one side was guaranteed a spot made for incredible entertainment and it was great to see the few clubs that weren’t in the mix fighting hard as well.
Apart from Castres against Munster in the last game of the weekend after the delay in Limerick, every team took it seriously even if they were out of contention. The likes of Leicester and Harlequins put in big efforts and that is a sign of a strength of the competition nowadays.
And it will only get even better next year with Italy not guaranteed a spot in the top tier and all of the PRO14 places having to be earned through league positions.
Certain teams will rue missed opportunities, with Bath in particular kicking themselves. Most people will say that losing at home to Scarlets cost them but actually you have to go all the way back to Round 1 and their failure to get the try bonus point against Benetton to find their major mistake.
And, Wasps will of course look back with massive regret on the last 15 minutes of last week’s game against Quins when they threw it away. They would have been in the quarter-finals had it not been for that brief period and it’s minute details within games that have proved the difference for teams.
Exeter had loads of possession in the first half against Glasgow but just couldn’t convert that into points and made lots of uncharacteristic errors. Sometimes knockout rugby changes people and for Exeter it was a knockout game. The Warriors had nothing to lose and scored some wonderful tries but the Chiefs will be disappointed with their performance.
La Rochelle will definitely look at their game on Sunday as a missed opportunity as a try bonus point against a slightly weakened Quins side with nothing to play for would have given them a home quarter-final.
The flip side of that is that their away record this season has been very good and they will fancy themselves away at Scarlets. Leinster v Saracens may have the pedigree but, in terms of excitement, that is the pick of the quarter-finals for me with the style of rugby both teams play.
It is a surprise that only one English side has made it through and they only did so by the skin of their teeth in the end but it’s great to see teams from all the major nations, apart from Scotland, represented in the quarter-finals.
Four French sides making it through shows that they’re still able to flex their financial muscle and the sheer power of the Top 14 outfits has shone through at times. And, it’s great to see a Welsh region in the last eight for the first time for six years.
Everyone will be picking Leinster as their tournament winners right now but there’s a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and the quarter-finals and I have a feeling Saracens might have something to say about that.
Billy Vunipola may well be back by then and his presence could just tip the balance in Saracens’ favour. He is that important to them and that much of a world class player.
They beat Munster 26-10 at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin in the semi-final last year, so going over there will hold no fear for them and it will be all about what physical and mental state the squad is in when the game comes around.
Leinster have managed their squad very effectively but they’ve got 18 players in Ireland’s Six Nations squad. You go through a full Six Nations campaign and then get to the start of the knockout stages in April and teams will be in a very different position to where they are now.
Sides that have been very strong throughout the pool stages might have picked up three or four key injuries and be down to the bare bones in certain positions when that has been the case for others between October and January.
That certainly applies to Clermont. Rewind just over a month to their demolition of Saracens at Allianz Park and they were on fire but now they’re really struggling. They have a huge injury list and were abject at times against Ospreys but they’ve done enough to get through and don’t count them out when they’ve got some bodies back.
We’ve seen the best eight teams qualify and, undoubtedly, Leinster are the best team in Europe right now but the landscape will change hugely in the next couple of months.
I would pick Munster, Clermont and Scarlets to make it through but Leinster v Saracens is just too tough to call. If they played tomorrow, I would back Leinster but they aren’t and I just think it could be a whole different ball game in a couple of months’ time.
You can listen to Andy Goode with Jim Hamilton on The Rugby Pod – all previous episodes are available here
And, you can watch the video of the latest episode below…
Comments on RugbyPass
What a pathetic little twit Andy Goode is, as if we care what he thinks…..😂
91 Go to commentsFoxy has been a wonderful player for the Scarlets and Wales.
1 Go to commentsNika the Georgian is the best referee in the world at the moment. Luckily we will be spared the shite SH refs and Barnes will hopefully remain retired given how shite and embarrassing he was at the RWC.
2 Go to commentsThis is the most exciting game of the summer imo, as we really won’t know in advance how both teams are going to play. - Will Robertson just reproduce his Crusaders tactics from last year, or will there be a conscious effort to borrow from the Hurricanes and Blues, and from the aspects of the ABs world cup strategy that worked well? - England under Borthwick have put in some good performances playing attacking rugby, and some good performances playing kick-oriented defensive rugby. Will Borthwick try to merge them together into a single all-court game, or will he continue switching between different approaches depending on the strengths and weaknesses of the opposition?
1 Go to commentsI’m predicting an aggregate points difference of no more than +/-10pts across both matches this series.
1 Go to commentsI’m predicting an aggregate points difference of no more than +/-10pts across both matches this series.
9 Go to commentsFinals are always tense affairs for the players so I do not expect this to be a spectacle of running rugby unfortunately.
2 Go to commentsBulls***': Ex-England international calls out Eben Etzebeth… Not to his face but from very far away… after he’d left. Checked to make sure he wasn’t in the building.
91 Go to commentsHopefully this will mean a new Auckland league team to support in the west. Big Warriors fan but it’s very, very stale on that front and I’d like the option of another team if it was to watch league again. League needs to step up BIG time if its to get anywhere, another AK team and something from the capitol or south is a must for the game.
3 Go to commentsGood, deep interview, nice job Frankie!
1 Go to commentsNRL players don’t have anywhere near the number of Tests. Some people would be happy having Rest Homes full if 40 yo ex-players walking, or hobbling more like it, into walls. It’s just a game!
4 Go to commentsNOW Razor is worried about ABs getting injured or overplayed! Didn’t bother him last year. He happily played his AB Crusaders.
4 Go to commentsWhat is the World Rugby U20 players born year.
2 Go to commentsMuch like the Chiefs finally gave up waiting for Atu Moli to ever not be injured, you have to wonder if the Chiefs and Crusaders will let Josh Lord and Ethan Blackadder go next season. They’re being well paid to sit in the injury ward every year. Better off putting those funds towards someone who might actually play.
7 Go to commentsShowed better basic skills than some nz Super sides, who probably would have botched some of those backline moves. This tournament really is too short though. Needs more teams, or have them play two rounds to properly prepare them for the near full-time NH U20 sides.
4 Go to commentsGood grief it’s only six months. Probably just upset it’s not an established kiwi entering their prime they can “project” into green to join the rest.
2 Go to commentsGood player but far from being best in the world. That's an exaggeration. Perhaps Best in world by Northern Hemisphere standards and biasis but certainly not Southern Hemi standards
3 Go to commentsWell one thing about World Cup knock out rounds and Ireland is very clear: they won’t be getting ahead of themselves in ‘27! Because making it beyond the QF is well and truly ‘IN THEIR HEADS’ now…😉
91 Go to commentsHas this guy been dope tested? Sounds like a case of “roid rage”.
1 Go to commentsI would like to see him say that to Eben face to face in a dark alley.
91 Go to comments