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Could the Blues cause an upset in the final weekend of Super Rugby?

By Online Editors
Sonny Bill Williams offloads the ball. Photo by Renee McKay/Getty Images

NZ Herald / Patrick McKendry

This season’s Super Rugby competition has made a mess of many a prediction, but, bear with me – the Hurricanes, who have already qualified for a home quarter-final thanks to their superb victory over the Lions in Johannesburg – will lose to the Blues this weekend.

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The match in Wellington is looming as one of the Hurricanes’ toughest challenges of the season because they have little to gain from it and they will have missed a decent proportion of their week travelling home from a successful stint in South Africa.

They will be missing a few key personnel, including midfielder Ngani Laumape who is on an All Black rest week, and will have an eye on the knockout stages of the competition.

They are also perhaps the one team who can seriously threaten the Crusaders in Christchurch – their 37-17 victory over the Lions at Ellis Park despite the late withdrawal of Beauden Barrett due to illness should not be underestimated – and are on course to meet them in a semifinal.

The second part of the equation, of course, is how the Blues perform, and nothing should be taken for granted here after another away defeat at the weekend, this time to the Reds in Brisbane.

There is nothing in this match for the Blues either. They’re out of the playoffs equation and are playing for only that intangible thing called pride, but this is likely to be the final Super Rugby match for Sonny Bill Williams, if he’s passed fit after knee surgery, and fellow midfielder Ma’a Nonu. Both deserve a half decent send-off and it’s up to their teammates to provide it.

Can they harness what will be a sense of injustice after their one-point defeat at Suncorp Stadium? Who knows, but one thing in their favour is that there will be little expectation on them and that’s how this team likes it. They don’t handle pressure well and that’s perhaps why they tend to thrive in pre-season (a dry ball and pitch helps, too) and fall apart during the season proper.

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If they do manage it, it will be their first away win of the season and first away success against a New Zealand team since they beat the Hurricanes in 2013, an extraordinarily poor run that has to be broken some time doesn’t it?

I’ve started with a prediction and I’ll finish with a few more.

The Highlanders will finish their season with a victory over the Waratahs in Invercargill but will miss out on the playoffs – their draw to the Bulls in Dunedin was a killer – and the Chiefs will beat the Rebels in Melbourne to sneak into the top eight, for which their reward will be a trip to Christchurch to play a Crusaders team they made fools of in Suva recently.

The Crusaders have everything in their favour as they march towards what they will believe is their destiny of three victories in three years under Scott Robertson. They have a bye this weekend and a cast of thousands (okay, front rowers Owen Franks, Codie Taylor and Tim Perry) vying for starting positions after injury and you don’t need to be a genius to suggest they will be very difficult to beat at their fortress.

A rematch against a Chiefs side who have improved significantly over the second part of the season will be highly anticipated and so will, potentially, another against the Hurricanes.

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Coach John Plumtree showed in Johannesburg that he is capable of designing effective winning strategies – he left Dane Coles and Ardie Savea on the bench in order to boost their second-half impact and the pair did it superbly. They are a danger but will struggle to beat the Blues on Saturday.

This article first appeared on nzherald.co.nz and is republished with permission.

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Trevor 1 hours ago
Will forgotten Wallabies fit the Joe Schmidt model?

Thanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.

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Bull Shark 5 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

Of the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.

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