Could the Blues cause an upset in the final weekend of Super Rugby?
NZ Herald / Patrick McKendry
This season’s Super Rugby competition has made a mess of many a prediction, but, bear with me – the Hurricanes, who have already qualified for a home quarter-final thanks to their superb victory over the Lions in Johannesburg – will lose to the Blues this weekend.
The match in Wellington is looming as one of the Hurricanes’ toughest challenges of the season because they have little to gain from it and they will have missed a decent proportion of their week travelling home from a successful stint in South Africa.
They will be missing a few key personnel, including midfielder Ngani Laumape who is on an All Black rest week, and will have an eye on the knockout stages of the competition.
They are also perhaps the one team who can seriously threaten the Crusaders in Christchurch – their 37-17 victory over the Lions at Ellis Park despite the late withdrawal of Beauden Barrett due to illness should not be underestimated – and are on course to meet them in a semifinal.
The second part of the equation, of course, is how the Blues perform, and nothing should be taken for granted here after another away defeat at the weekend, this time to the Reds in Brisbane.
There is nothing in this match for the Blues either. They’re out of the playoffs equation and are playing for only that intangible thing called pride, but this is likely to be the final Super Rugby match for Sonny Bill Williams, if he’s passed fit after knee surgery, and fellow midfielder Ma’a Nonu. Both deserve a half decent send-off and it’s up to their teammates to provide it.
Can they harness what will be a sense of injustice after their one-point defeat at Suncorp Stadium? Who knows, but one thing in their favour is that there will be little expectation on them and that’s how this team likes it. They don’t handle pressure well and that’s perhaps why they tend to thrive in pre-season (a dry ball and pitch helps, too) and fall apart during the season proper.
If they do manage it, it will be their first away win of the season and first away success against a New Zealand team since they beat the Hurricanes in 2013, an extraordinarily poor run that has to be broken some time doesn’t it?
I’ve started with a prediction and I’ll finish with a few more.
The Highlanders will finish their season with a victory over the Waratahs in Invercargill but will miss out on the playoffs – their draw to the Bulls in Dunedin was a killer – and the Chiefs will beat the Rebels in Melbourne to sneak into the top eight, for which their reward will be a trip to Christchurch to play a Crusaders team they made fools of in Suva recently.
The Crusaders have everything in their favour as they march towards what they will believe is their destiny of three victories in three years under Scott Robertson. They have a bye this weekend and a cast of thousands (okay, front rowers Owen Franks, Codie Taylor and Tim Perry) vying for starting positions after injury and you don’t need to be a genius to suggest they will be very difficult to beat at their fortress.
A rematch against a Chiefs side who have improved significantly over the second part of the season will be highly anticipated and so will, potentially, another against the Hurricanes.
Coach John Plumtree showed in Johannesburg that he is capable of designing effective winning strategies – he left Dane Coles and Ardie Savea on the bench in order to boost their second-half impact and the pair did it superbly. They are a danger but will struggle to beat the Blues on Saturday.
This article first appeared on nzherald.co.nz and is republished with permission.
Comments on RugbyPass
This is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
21 Go to commentsWhat a load of bollocks. The author has forgotten to mention the fact that the Crusaders have a huge injury toll with top world class players out. Not to mention the fact that they are obviously in a transition period. No this will not spark a slow death for NZ rugby, but it does mean there will be a new Super Rugby champion. Anyone who knows anything about NZ rugby knows that there is some serious talent here, it just isn’t all at the Crusaders.
2 Go to commentsI wouldn’t spend the time on Nawaqanitawase! No point in having him filling in a jersey when he’s committed to leave Union. Give the jersey to a young prospect who will be here in the future.
4 Go to commentsIt was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
53 Go to commentsBrayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
7 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to commentsOf the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.
29 Go to commentsIrish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
5 Go to commentsI certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
1 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
1 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to commentsJust such a genuine good bloke…and probably the best all round player in his generation. Good guys do come first sometimes and he handled the W.Cup loss with great attitude.
2 Go to commentsWord in France is that he’s on the radar of a few Top14 clubs.
5 Go to commentsGet blocking Travis, this guy has styles and he’s gonna make a swift impact…!
1 Go to commentsWhat remorse? She claimed that her dangerous tackle wasn’t worthy of a red! She should be compensating the injured player for loss of earnings at the minimum. Her ban should include the recovery time of the injured player as well as the paltry 3 match ban.
5 Go to commentsArdie is a legend. Finished and klaar. Two things: “Yeah, yeah, I have had a few conversations with Razor just around feedback on my game and what I am doing well, what I need to improve on or work-ons. It’s kind of been minimal, mate, but it’s all that I need over here in terms of how to be better, how to get better and what I am doing well.” I hope he’s downplaying it - and that it’s not that “minimal”. The amount of communication and behind the scenes preparation the Bok coaches put into players - Rassie and co would be all over Ardie and being clear on what is expected of him. This stands out for me as something teams should really be looking at in terms of the boks success from a coaching point of view. And was surprised by the comment - “minimal”. In terms of the “debate” around Ireland and South Africa. Nice one Ardie. Indeed. There’s no debate.
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