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Champions Cup 'moving day' will separate men from boys - Andy Goode
A bit like the third day of a major golf championship, Round 4 is ‘moving day’ in the Champions Cup and will separate the men from the boys.
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They may have lost away in France in Round 2 but Leinster are still the champions and remain the team to beat but Saracens’ run of 21 games unbeaten in all competitions will have people starting to back them instead and Racing are the other main contender, having won all of their games and been finalists in two of the last three seasons.
Toulouse have been a bit of a surprise package as not many people would have picked them to win all three of their opening games but Leinster are still well-placed to win that pool. With two home games left against Wasps and Bath, though, you can ink Toulouse in as a best runner-up already.
I think Racing, Saracens and Munster will be the teams to join Leinster as home quarter-finalists because everyone is beating each other in Pool 5, so it’s hard to see the winner of that one getting enough points to avoid being on the road.
Montpellier are still the team to beat in that pool for me, though, despite Edinburgh and Newcastle looking like they’re sitting pretty at the moment. I can see them beating Toulon and Falcons at home and then travelling to Scotland knowing that a win will see them through.
Montpellier against Toulon is one of the games of the round this weekend because whoever loses that one is out. The last time Toulon didn’t have European rugby beyond January was a decade ago back in 2009 but they’ve been woeful at times and are looking to a avoid a 10th defeat of the season already and this is just the 15th match.
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Exeter and Scarlets have been the two major disappointments of the tournament so far, with the Welshmen failing to build on their semi-final appearance last time around.
The Chiefs will still have a major say in who comes out on top in Pool 2 but they need a miracle bigger than the one they pulled off a couple of years ago to win the group from here.
It’s going to be tight in the race for the three best runners-up spots but Gloucester have given themselves a hell of a chance with their victory at Sandy Park last week. I still feel like Munster might be the only team to progress from that pool though.
Glasgow have been really impressive so far and their ability to pick up bonus points as well as wins means I think they’ll make it through but there’s no stopping Saracens in Pool 3. They’ve learned their lesson from not finishing top of their group last season, which meant they had to travel to Leinster in the quarter-finals, and aren’t going to let that happen again.
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Ulster’s win at Parc y Scarlets was the big result of Round 3 and that’s given them a good chance of finishing second in Pool 4. Leicester will still feel they can grab a best runner-up berth if they win all of their remaining games but their form hasn’t been good enough and the men from Belfast look more likely.
Lyon and Scarlets are the only two teams to have lost all three of their opening games and the first half of the pool stages has shown that the tournament is even more competitive than last season and anyone can beat anyone else on their day.
The likes of Toulon, Cardiff Blues, Castres and Leicester, if they don’t produce a big performance at Welford Road, are set to join the list of teams to have fallen by the wayside this weekend as the men are separated from the boys.
The cream is rising to the top, though, with ‘moving day’ set to see the big names edge closer to securing a home quarter-final and it’ll be a major shock if the winner doesn’t come from the elite trio of Leinster, Racing and Saracens.
Comments on RugbyPass
Lots of discussion points, Ben, but two glaring follies IMO: 1. Blackadder at 6. Has done nothing so far this season to justify his selection. Did you see him going backwards in contact at the weekend? Simply has not got the physical presence at 6: we need a Scott Barrett or a Finau (or wildcard Ah Kuoi), beasts who are big enough to play lock, like Frizzell. If Barret played at 6, Paddy could be joined at lock by Vai’i or one of the young giants we need to promote, like Darry or Lord (if he ever gets on the field). Blackadder best left to join the queue for 7. 2. Not even a mention for Christie? Ratima gets caught at crucial times at the back of the ruck when he hesitates on the pass. The only way he starts would be if Christie and TJ are injured.
1 Go to commentsWhat a dagg in more ways than one
5 Go to commentsRegroup come back next year but sack some of the coaching team and don't be like the ABs last minute sacking. If Crusaders don't do well ABs don't do well.
5 Go to commentsProctor Definitely inform again this year had a hell of a season last year and this year is looking even better. Still mixed feelings about Ioane tho.
4 Go to commentsDagg is still trying to get enough headlines to make himself relevant enough to get a job. The Crusaders went back to square one at all levels. Shelve this season and nail the next one.
5 Go to commentsHe was in such great form. Sad for him but only a short term injury and it will be great to see him back for the finals.
1 Go to commentsAfter their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
5 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
3 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
4 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
3 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
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