Analysis: How Gareth Davies and Finn Russell are deliberately targeting robotic 9s and 10s
The advent of organised modern-day rugby patterns has brought with it a predictable sense of inevitability. With most teams running similar versions of each others’ schemes during phase play, it has never been easier to identify a phase in advance.
When that team doesn’t execute that phase with well-timed ‘lead-running’ passing, a high-pressure defence can make a heads-up play.
Australia became the latest victim of Wales’ halfback Gareth Davies who had two intercepts in the 29-25 pool stage win, one of which provided seven critical points, and he bombed a third which may have been seven more.
Continue reading below…
Davies’ read of the play comes from being able to identify the intended recipient by seeing what the structured set-up is and preying on the inability of the distributor to react differently under pressure.
After a stretch to the sideline, the Wallabies bring play back right with a carry off nine, before setting up to play a second pod off 10 in a traditional 1-3-3-1 pattern.
Halfback Davies, defending in the middle third, identifies the setup and can make an educated guess that Foley’s target is the second forward in the pod.
Sprinting off the line, Davies brings line speed that Foley doesn’t pick up just going through the motions of his pre-programmed pass.
Foley’s footwork is stationary, standing on the same spot waiting for the ball to get to him adding depth to the play. His outside pod is also rather stationary. These are issues that become a theme in all these big interception plays, sitting back and allowing the defence to force the pressure.
Foley delivers his pass with Davies bearing down at pace. He cuts off the passing lane to the intended target Tolu Latu (2), intercepting the pass. Only back-door receiver James O’Connor (13) prevents this from being more, making a crucial one-on-one tackle.
Davies was able to bank on Foley sticking to the script, coming up with a turnover that ultimately led to Wales’ first try.
We have seen Davies do this before, against Scotland at home in the opening game of the Six Nations last year.
After Scotland go wide, they try to bring play back left to the 15 metre mark with a rather long pass from halfback Ali Price (9) to a pod of three forwards.
The set-up is too wide for Price so he has to taxi off the ruck, giving Davies an extra second to press off the line.
The primary target, prop Jon Welsh (3), is standing flat-footed, as is the back-door receiver Chris Harris (13) and the support runner on the right, Ben Toolis (4).
They are not moving and Davies is, as Price had already picked up the ball, allowing the defence to move up.
By the time the ball almost reaches a stationary Welsh, Davies is there to grab it.
There is no chance for Harris to make a tackle like O’Connor and Davies goes 60 metres the other way and scores.
By not timing a run before the halfback has picked up the ball, setting up too wide, and then not even running to meet the ball while it was being delivered, Scotland ship five points.
At the very least, moving forward to compete for the ball and try to undercut Davies to potentially cause a knock-on and a stop in play would be a better option than standing like a deer in the headlights.
Scotland’s own flyhalf Finn Russell has also picked up on the tendency of playmakers to just go through the motions, and made the same play twice earlier this year which led to two tries for his side.
Ireland have run this same set-up for over two years now, making this an easy play to diagnose.
After a three-man pod off the scrumhalf, if they go the same way, Ireland runs with a two-man pod outside 10 and a midfielder in behind (Bundee Aki above).
They do run a variety of plays out of this formation, but they all use Carbery as a distributor to get the ball wider. So, Russell knows that Carbery has basically pre-determined what he will do.
Murray’s pass is directed at a stationary Carbery, who like Foley above, is stuck in cement and is only going to swivel to shovel the ball onward.
Carbery almost has the ball and his outside pod hasn’t moved either, waiting for a cue to begin their run, which is going to be at a pedestrian pace compared to the speed at which Russell is coming.
Carbery turns and attempts to hit the second runner, which allows Russell to continue his path up the middle of the two-man pod.
Russell snatches the pass, steps Aki and races downfield before popping a late offload to Sam Johnson for the try.
It’s once again a static, predictable play, and no adjustment from Carbery led to this situation.
A couple of weeks later, Russell does the same thing to Owen Farrell at Twickenham, but this time undercuts a pass intended for the first forward in the two-man pod.
Gareth Davies repeats the dosage on Will Genia trying to do exactly what Ali Price did, bringing play back to the 15 from the edge.
The Wallabies have just re-gathered their own kick-off, but don’t effectively transition into attack all that well.
The forwards are late to form the pod, coming together after Genia has picked up the ball. Davies may have jumped the gun a little bit, but for Australia everyone is static waiting for a long pass to be delivered, floating through the air like a sitting duck.
Bernard Foley (10) is nowhere near his position behind the pod, which becomes a problem after Davies picks off the pass.
The rise of these targeted intercepts is a result of the widespread adoption of the same patterns and decision-makers who aren’t able to adjust when they don’t have their pods set-up correctly or able to feel the pressure coming and bail.
All of All Blacks‘ key drivers showed good decision-making against similar pressure in Wellington against the Springboks.
The predatory scrumhalf Faf de Klerk often defends on the wing following lineouts and can station out there for longer periods. He is known to take risks and was looking all night for an intercept but was unable to get one due to late decision-making.
TJ Perenara (9) is halfway through his passing motion with De Klerk shooting up on the outside.
For whatever reason, he pulls down the pass and runs into the ruck defence preventing a would-be intercept or hospital pass to Beauden Barrett.
Richie Mo’unga (10) shows even more remarkable decision-making as this time De Klerk (9) comes from way back deep trying to jump the pass.
Mo’unga shapes to pass but decides at the very last second to pull it down and take the contact. Perhaps he sensed De Klerk flying through from his peripheral vision and adjusted accordingly, or maybe he just felt something wasn’t right.
De Klerk is seen flying through the air with his arms up where a long pass from Mo’unga would have sailed.
With the All Blacks using their new ‘flush’ system where the ball always goes out the back to first receiving option, the Springboks were bringing the heat up the middle all night where the ball usually ends up for a carry.
Barrett at first reciever senses the danger of Pieter-Steph Du Toit, and pulls down a pass intended for the middle of the central three-man pod and instead carries himself.
The heads-up plays of Russell and Davies show that the best-laid plans can fail and that structured rugby can be reduced to embarrassing plays if you don’t play what’s in front of you.
Systems will only go as far as the ability of the decision-makers put in it and can be undone by instinctual players taking risks in defence. Conversely, avoiding disaster plays like this can be done if you have a decision-maker who knows when to bail on the scripted play in favour of something else.
Gareth Davies and Finn Russell are the first players to consistently expose the predictive nature of modern rugby patterns on a regular basis at the highest level, with Davies’ ball-hawking skills proving to be a big difference against Australia and it could continue to be at this Rugby World Cup.
Wales post-match press conference after Australia win:
Comments on RugbyPass
“But with an exceptional pass accuracy rating “ Which apart from Roigard is not a feature of any of the other 9s in NZ. Kind of basic for a Black 9 dont.you. think? Yet we keep seeing FC and TJ being rated ahead of him? Weird if it’s seen as vital to get our backline beating in your face defences.
1 Go to commentsThanks BeeMc! Looks like many teams need extra time to settle from the quadrennial northern migration. I think generally the quality of the Rugby has held up. Fiji has been fantastic and fun to watch
13 Go to commentsLets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
11 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
11 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
35 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
35 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
16 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to comments