All Blacks’ worst-case RWC 2027 pool draw sees 2023 history repeat

The All Blacks are locked into band 1 for the Rugby World Cup 2027 pool draw, and that means there is a chance that a certain piece of unwanted history from 2023 could repeat itself.

The All Blacks had never lost a pool-stage game heading into the 2023 Rugby World Cup, but when they came up against tournament hosts France at a raucous Stade de France, that perfect record slipped, with a 27-13 defeat.

In 2027, the tournament hosts, Australia, are again in a different band to the Kiwis, opening the door to another epic opening night showdown.

For Australia, few opponents would make more of an opening night spectacle than their cousins from across the ditch. That said, a first-up date with the English, who spoiled Australia’s 2003 World Cup dream in Sydney and are also in band 1, would also bring plenty of spice.

While New Zealand boasts a confident 75 per cent win rate against their trans-Tasman rivals throughout 122 years of competition, the Wallabies are, historically speaking, by far the most competitive opponents New Zealand has outside of band 1.

Wales is the only other nation outside of band 1 that has ever beaten the All Blacks. It’s been a long 82 years since the last Welsh win, though. The most relevant competitive record in band 2 is that Scotland has the lowest average points differential against the All Blacks in the 2020s, typically losing by half the deficit that the Wallabies have succumbed to.

For the remaining band 2 nations in matchups with New Zealand this decade, Japan has lost by an average of 31 points, Fiji by 41, and Italy by 45, signalling the Italians as the least competitive team in the group. Anyone watching Italy play in recent years would detest that notion heavily, however.

In band three, two teams, Spain and Chile, have never played New Zealand. Georgia has squared off with the Kiwis once, an entertaining 43-10 hit-out in the pool stages of the 2015 Rugby World Cup. Uruguay has played New Zealand twice, with the results being 64-3 in 1976 and 73-0 in 2023. The USA has faced the Kiwis five times, losing by an average of 59 points. And finally, Tonga has lost by an average of 68 points across seven games.

Of the band three opponents, Georgia has proven to be the most competitive, while Tonga has the highest margin of defeat.

Looking at band four, seven games have been played between the All Blacks and Canada, with New Zealand’s average margin of victory being 51 points. There have also been seven games between New Zealand and Samoa, with the Kiwis winning by an average margin of 49. The 2007 Rugby World Cup’s 108-13 hammering is the only match between New Zealand and Portugal, while the Kiwis are yet to face Hong Kong China or Zimbabwe.

The All Blacks’ worst-case scenario for the Rugby World Cup 2027 Pool Draw

New Zealand
Scotland
Georgia
Samoa

The All Blacks’ best-case scenario for the Rugby World Cup 2027 Pool Draw

New Zealand
Japan
Tonga
Portugal

The four Rugby World Cup seeding bands

Band 1: South Africa, New Zealand, England, Ireland, France, Argentina
Band 2: Australia, Fiji, Scotland, Italy, Wales, Japan
Band 3: Georgia, Spain, Uruguay, USA, Chile, Tonga
Band 4: Samoa, Portugal, Romania, Hong Kong China, Zimbabwe, Canada