Defeat doesn’t halt All Blacks’ upward trend in the ‘metrics that matter’

Good news, All Blacks fans: the sky is not falling. That is the message from Blues captain turned Sky Sport analyst James Parsons, who has maintained an upbeat attitude towards the Kiwis’ season despite their latest loss to Los Pumas.

The two-time All Black has remained optimistic about the team’s direction, despite the 29-23 loss marking their first defeat on Argentine soil. He pointed to the three yellow cards received as major factors in the team’s performance, with a flow-on effect disrupting both attack and defence.

And while Parsons’ fellow Kiwi pundits are heavily criticising the team for the discipline issues, he acknowledged the fact that New Zealand were actually the least penalised of the two teams in the contest.

“The ill-discipline, it flowed on to the defensive problems, just because there were less players on the field. And when you looked at the penalty count, it actually ended up in favour of the All Blacks, but the drastic nature of the penalties given away that led to the three yellow cards was just a big punishment,” Parsons said on the Aotearoa Rugby Pod.

“I think you have to put some context around it, like 10 penalties isn’t a lot. If you get single-digit penalties or 10, most coaches will live with that. But I think the point I was trying to make is three of those decisions were just such big penalties that it flowed onto defence.

“They tackled at 83 per cent, a lot of that was off the back of being down numbers, and I think the attacking stats of Argentina are quite skewed due to those yellow cards. If you looked at it as an attacking performance, you’d look at it and go, man, Argie had a good game, but a lot of stats have been shaped by, especially, that time in the first half when they (the All Blacks) were down to 13.

“And it’s very rare that you see an All Blacks side have 41 per cent possession; they had less than half the run metres than Argentina. That’s just not a common stat. Normally, New Zealand sides will have the most run metres, easily.

“So I think not only did those three yellow cards flow on to defence and damage the statistical picture there, it flowed on to the attacking game and didn’t allow them to build pressure through their own attack and put pressure back on Argentina.”

Parsons managed to laugh off some jibes and comments on the internet that had challenged his persistent positivity towards his former team, with stats reassuring his stance that the team are executing in some key areas.

“The positive? I’ve been advised this week, ‘good luck finding positives’ from my kind social media friends, but there are some positives.

“If you look at one of the focuses at the start of the year, conversion rate in the 22, 60 per cent, three tries out of the five visits is pretty good.

“And then the other thing I liked is, had we got our kicks, we still put ourselves in a position to have the most points scored. Yes, we missed them, yes, we lost, but we still put ourselves in the position to still win that game when we were in such a deficit, in terms of that discipline.

“The yellow cards dictated so much of that performance that it’s just not funny.”

While it’s easy enough to identify the yellow cards as the most pressing issues of the loss, addressing enough problems to the extent required by the upcoming contest is another matter.

The All Blacks are set to host the reigning Rugby Championship trophy-holders, the Springboks, in rounds two and three of the tournament, and have just 13 days to prepare for what may be the biggest men’s Test of the year at Eden Park, September 6.

Parsons says the Springboks will also punish the mistakes that led to the loss in Buenos Aires should they reappear, and that’s a lesson the Wallabies were reminded of in their 30-22 defeat to South Africa over the weekend.

“We can’t afford to do that against the Springboks. You look at that game statistically, and Australia should have won that game. They (the Springboks) had an 81 per cent defensive tackle rate against the Wallabies, and the Wallabies had many more 22 entries, but they just couldn’t convert. Opportunities like that just can’t be given.”

He went on to highlight the situations that led to Will Jordan and Sevu Reece’s yellow cards, stating that a more dominant forward pack performance would make such plays less likely.

“But I think where it starts, and I know this seems so simple, but it’s in the tackle. It’s in that collision area. We’ve gone on at length about the dominant carry stat, the gainline carry stat, and the lightning-quick ball stat. I don’t think Will (Jordan) gets in that position, I don’t think Sevu (Reece) gets in that position, if we’re dominating the collision and we’re having the ability to slow the ball down.

“Because of numbers coming and going, we just didn’t have the impact that we’ve seen.

“This one result still doesn’t change my opinion that the All Blacks are trending upwards, they are in terms of the metrics that matter, in and around the collision. If they can control that collision on both sides of the ball, attack and defence, against the Springboks, I think that’s what will dictate the winner of this series.”