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All Blacks are primed to shock the world in Soweto
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When Andre Esterhuizen snatched the ball for a clean steal to end the All Blacks chances of snatching a late draw in Cape Town, the relief became visible.
After Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu booted the ball into the stands, nearly every Springbok player standing raised their arms triumphantly into the air. The contrast with the All Blacks in the first Test is clear.
Just one player was seen celebrating, Fabian Holland, while every other player was subdued and looked like they couldn’t care less on the surface.
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This visible release by the Boks looks like joy. It is, but also mixed with a healthy dose of relief. Facing extermination in the series the Cape Town Test presented an existential threat. Down 1-0, the Springboks simply had to win. They saved face. They could not face the prospect of being swept at home going into the third Test.
Wounded, facing angry public pressure, Cape Town required different energy. It was an emotionally charged performance based on survival, which tends to bring an edge to a team. Now the hard part is subduing the relief that comes as that as the elixir that kills that ‘edge’.
The question now is how much of the tank was emptied in that second Test by the Boks.
How many times has a side emptied itself to stay alive? It happens a lot. Even for this generation of Springboks. Let’s go back to the 2023 Rugby World Cup for a moment.
The biggest task for the Springboks was getting over France in the quarter-final. It went down as one of the greatest spectacles the game has seen, leaving viewers in awe of the power and speed of the game. South Africa threw everything at that game to get over the line, recovering from 25-19 down to sneak a 29-28 victory.
It required everything South Africa had. Now what happened the next week? It was the worst performance of the tournament by South Africa. They were flat, they were slow to get into the game and they were simply awful by their own admission in the semi-final against England. Kolisi’s words were “”It was ugly today, really ugly”.
England were up 6-0 after nine minutes and continued to build a 12-6 lead by half-time. Farrell’s drop goal took it to 15-6 early in the second half. South Africa had to go deep in the well to recover in the final 15 minutes.
They won, but the performance was sub standard and nowhere near the level they produced against France. It was the survival game hangover. England were a distinctly average side in 2023. They had no right to even be in the contest yet alone be up by nine points with 12 minutes to go.
Any other top four side that were as fresh as England would have buried South Africa that night.
Let’s go back to the 2021 British & Irish Lions series. Again facing elimination, the Boks produced a survival performance in the second Test to beat the Lions by 27-9. It had the edge to it. It had the toxicity to it. It dragged on for over two hours in one of the ugliest games in history.
And what happened the next week? Again the Springboks fell flat early, falling behind by 10-3 in the first 20 minutes in the third Test.
After a Pollard penalty, fullback Liam Williams butchered a huge opportunity for the Lions to go up by 15-6, potentially 17-6, when he did not pass to Josh Adams.
That play could have been a match winner. It wasn’t, and the Boks scraped a 19-16 win on a last-gasp penalty to Morne Steyn.
But again, the edge to the performance was not there. They emptied the tank in the second Test to stay alive and started slow the next week.
Now this third Test is with the All Blacks, not the 2021 Lions or 2023 England, two teams who could barely muster a try. The 2021 Lions scored two maul tries in the entire three-match series, while 2023 England didn’t even sniff a try against the Boks.
This is the number two ranked side, who last week were briefly number one. Dave Rennie has the All Blacks back playing lethal attacking rugby. They’ve put nine tries on the Boks in two Tests.
They are going back to altitude to Soweto to the football stadium, a place where the All Blacks have a 2-0 record.
At the Highveld venues, the All Blacks have a great record winning eight of the last 10. The All Blacks have not lost a Test match at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria since 1976. They’ve won four of the last six games at Ellis Park in Johannesburg, while winning both of the Tests at FNB Stadium.
So again, the question is how much is left in the tank for the Springboks after Cape Town?
Because if they start slow against this All Blacks side they will get buried. The All Blacks have outscored South Africa 33-6 in the final 20 minutes of both Tests so far.
Erasmus has named his team and it features few changes. Kurt-Lee Arendse returns as the only difference to the 23. There’s no fresh legs. They have to produce again without the “wounded animal” energy. The emergency has passed and you can’t manufacture that edge again the same way.
Ox Nche and Marx, who played 45 minutes to finish the game last week, are starting this week. The three turnovers Marx won that proved critical in the second half, won’t be there in the back end of the game Soweto. That is, if Marx does actually start this time.
South Africa are potentially headed towards an ambush in Soweto. Erasmus’ head is stuck in Cape Town, still going on about post-game comments on the Monday.
If Rennie gets the selections right and adds some fresh players to the forward pack, where Erasmus hasn’t, the All Blacks can shock the world and beat the Boks handsomely.
If the All Blacks land two quick tries with a fast start and South Africa don’t wake up until 20 minutes to go, like they’ve done the last two times in this situation, the game will be gone.
What’s more is if the All Blacks continue their 4th quarter trend, they will end up making a statement that will put the world on notice.
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