A Super Rugby final round Hail Mary - could waving the white flag be a brave gambit?
Super Rugby is a competition like no other. It spans four continents, six time zones and has games played in seven different countries.
Each competitor plays 15 regular season games; every team in their own conference at least once, two teams in their own conference twice, and four of the five teams in each of the other two conferences. It’s so close to being a perfect round robin, but it’s not quite there.
Perhaps more unusual, however, is the finals series structure.
Teams aren’t ranked strictly on their performance throughout the season.
Instead, the three top-seeded spots are granted to the highest ranked team in each conference. 2019’s conference champions are the Crusaders, Jaguares and Brumbies, who are on 58, 46 and 43 points respectively.
The final quarter-final host is simply the next best team overall. In 2019, that’s the Hurricanes.
Second best in the competition, but relegated to fourth
The Hurricanes, as most people know, have amassed the second highest number of points throughout the season: they’re on 49 heading into the final week of the competition.
If everything goes as is expected and the hosts all win their quarter-finals, then the Hurricanes will be faced with travelling to Christchurch to take on the Crusaders. This seems somewhat unfair on the men from Wellington. Logically, the second-best performing team throughout the season should be hosting a semi-final – but that’s not the case in Super Rugby.
Of course, this is nothing new to the competition. In 2018, the Hurricanes and Chiefs were the second and third-best performing sides but were ranked fourth and fifth on the table. In 2017, the Hurricanes, Chiefs and Highlanders all outperformed South Africa’s top side the Stormers but were dropped places simply because they were part of the New Zealand conference. The situation was much the same in 2016 and, indeed, going back for as long as the ranking system has been in place.
The finals system has been criticised to death for punishing strong teams that weren’t quite strong enough to top their conference – even if they outperformed their foreign opposition. Less commonly discussed, however, is how the system can penalise teams that only just sneak into the play-offs.
The ‘reward’ for a last round victory
The teams ranked fifth through eighth will travel to the teams ranked fourth through first for their quarter-final matches. As the fifth placed team (likely to be the Bulls or the Lions, depending on the outcome of their match), would you rather travel to New Zealand to take on the Hurricanes or to Australia to take on the Brumbies?
Under a fair system, the fifth ranked side would be playing the Brumbies in Canberra.
The Brumbies have a reputable 5-3 record against teams from outside their conference in 2019 (and all three of those losses were suffered away from home). Other than thrashing the Chiefs in the second round of the competition, however, their biggest margin of victory is 12 points. A victory in Canberra would not be easy, by any stretch of the imagination – but it would certainly be achievable.
In contrast, the Hurricanes have lost only once to foreign teams in 2019 – against the Jaguares in Wellington.
Even if you consider the Brumbies and the Hurricanes to be comparatively equal threats, you also have to consider what would lay ahead should a victory be achieved.
Doing the New Zealand double
Prior to 2017, the semi-finals would see the highest ranked qualifier play the lowest rank qualifier with the second and third qualifiers also battling it out – regardless of who they all faced in the quarter-finals.
That system was recently abolished, however, and now the winner of 1st v 8th will always play the winner of 4th v 5th. Under the old system, if the seventh seeded qualifier won against the second seeded qualifier in their quarter-final, they would face off against the highest ranked team who had also made it through to the semi-finals. Effectively, the first seed would always have the easiest match in every round of the finals. That’s no longer the case.
The new system means that should the Bulls or the Lions triumph in their quarter-final with the Hurricanes, they’ll be rewarded with a trip to Christchurch to take on the run-away favourite Crusaders (assuming they don’t slip up in their own quarter-final game).
In 2019, the sixth ranked side will likely play the Brumbies and the seventh ranked side will travel to Buenos Aires to take on the ever-improving Jaguares. Both those teams have their merits – but you would imagine that most squads would prefer to face those two sides in quarter and semi-finals rather than having to earn back-to-back wins in New Zealand against the Hurricanes and the Crusaders.
Is there merit to losing?
All this leaves the remaining teams fighting it out for play-off spots in a bit of a pickle. The winner of the Bulls and Lions match, played in Pretoria, will finish in fifth place and be tasked with travelling to New Zealand’s capital. The loser of that game will likely end up seventh overall and have to journey to Buenos Aires. Whilst it’s always better to go into the finals on a winning streak, the loser would likely face less daunting challenges in the finals. Whilst it’s hard to imagine either team throwing the match, the Bulls’ and Lions’ respective coaches probably wouldn’t be too upset with a loss, given the easier time they’d have getting to the grand final.
At the end of the day, there’s a very high chance that Super Rugby’s ultimate match will be hosted in Canterbury. It’s also very hard to imagine a scenario where the Crusaders aren’t crowned champions if they progress through to the final – foreign opposition rarely win in Christchurch, let alone in knockout matches. The six other quarter-finalists will all be praying that the Hurricanes can knock the Crusaders over in two weeks’ time, otherwise having an easier path to the final match isn’t going to make one ounce of difference.
Super Rugby’s irrational finals structure means that there may be some merit to the Bulls or Lions not putting out their best team in their upcoming match so as to earn an easier path to the final. Come the 6th of July, however, an easier run-in won’t make much of a difference to who is crowned Super Rugby champions if the Crusaders are defending their trophy from their Christchurch fortress.
Comments on RugbyPass
Super rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
7 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
7 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
14 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
14 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
6 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to commentsJake White is a brilliant coach and a master in the press. This is another masterclass in media relations and PR but its also a very narrow view with arguments that dont always hold water. White wants his team to win, he wants the best players in SA and wants his team competitive. You however have to face up to the reality of a poor exchange rate and big clubs with big budgets. SA Rugby cant compete and unless it can find more money SA players will keep leaving regardless of Springbok eligibility and this happened in 2015 - 2017. Also rugby is not cricket. Cricket has 3 formats and T20 cricket is where the money is at. When it comes to club vs country the IPL is king but that wont happen because the international calendar does not clash with the club calendar in rugby. So the argument about rugby going down the same path as cricket is really a non-starter
22 Go to commentsNZ rugby seem not to have learnt anything from professional rugby. Super rugby was dying and SA left before they died with the competition. SA rugby did a u turn on their approach to international players playing overseas and such players are now selected for Bok teams. As much as each country would love to retain their players playing in local competitions, this is the way the world is evolving my friends. Move with it or stay 20 years behind the times. One more thing. NZ rugby hierarchy think they are the big cheese. Take a more humble approach guys. You do not seem to have your players best interests at heart.
7 Go to comments