A roll of the dice for the All Blacks' most hotly contested World Cup-position
Since 2015 there has been one position where the All Blacks have failed to replace the talent they lost in the post World Cup exodus.
Many players have been tried at blindside flanker over the last three years but a number of factors have made it difficult for any individual to rise above their fellow competitors and cement the spot for their own.
Liam Squire, the man many thought was the natural successor to Jerome Kaino, has notched up 23 caps since his debut in 2016 – hardly a huge return for three years of test football. Injuries have plagued Squire’s career to the point where his availability come test season has rarely been guaranteed. He has yet to feature for the Highlanders in 2019 and time may be running out for a player who at one point would have been considered the incumbent.
Closely trailing Squire is the trio of Vaea Fifita (9 caps), Shannon Frizzell (4) and Jackson Hemopo (3) – three players who have all shone for the All Blacks against minnows but have yet to really assert themselves against top tier opposition, partially because Squire has somewhat limited their opportunities. Scott Barrett has also done enough in his cameos on the flank to be considered a genuine option to start, but a specialist will almost certainly be preferred.
The All Blacks coaches essentially have two options for the 2019 test season: make the safe selection and continue to persist with one of the above players, accepting that they’re probably not going to have a world-class blindside flanker for the World Cup, or make the riskier selection and try bring a new prospect up to speed with the All Blacks game plan.
Hail Mary plays have never been the current selectors’ modus operandi – but they also haven’t been afraid to make big calls when necessary. New Zealand, in particular, seems to have a history of selecting a new player in a World Cup year whose form has demanded inclusion in the squad, even if they’re fairly new to the scene.
In 2011, Israel Dagg was fast-tracked from being a bit-part backup to Mils Muliaina to being the starting fullback in the World Cup final and 2015 saw the fast-stepping Nehe Milner-Skudder rise from relative obscurity to start on the right wing.
If Steven Hansen and co are looking to head in a different direction from the already tried blindside flankers for the upcoming international season, then one player who could make a huge difference in the All Blacks loose forwards is young Chiefs flanker Luke Jacobson.
Jacobson, an ex-U20 captain for New Zealand, played ten matches for Waikato in 2017’s Mitre 10 Cup. His performances at blindside flanker and number 8 earned him a contract with the Chiefs and a breakout season in 2018 saw him notch up 13 matches.
The then-20 year old’s stature was growing with every match played. His carries were damaging and his tackles left many an opposition player rattled. The signs were all positive that Jacobson was in for a bumper year with Waikato – until concussion struck.
Jacobson’s head was struck by an elbow in the Chiefs’ final regular season match of 2018 against the Hurricanes and left him feeling the side effects of concussion and out of the game for six months – curtailing his first full season as a professional.
When RugbyPass spoke to Jacobson earlier in the year, his goals remained humble: “I’d like to get back into footy for starters,” he said.
“I’d be really keen to try and push for a starting spot. There’s definitely some good competition. If I was able to do that, I’d be pretty happy with that.”
Half a year on the sidelines due to an injury as debilitating and insidious as concussion is enough to bring any player crashing down to earth – the nature of professional sport is fickle, something as innocuous as a rogue elbow to the head could potentially end a career – so it’s no wonder that Jacobson has set very pragmatic goals.
And whilst there’s a certain appeal to Jacobson’s unassuming aspirations for 2019, there will be many who think that Jacobson could go on to achieve so much more this year.
Since returning to the fold for the Chiefs in round five of the competition – against the Hurricanes in Hamilton – Jacobson has seamlessly picked up where he left off last year, putting in some absolutely monstrous hits on defence. It also helps that he’s tackling at over 90%, ensuring that his defence is both reliable and impactful.
Jacobson’s attack has proved equally impressive in his few showings so far this year. His open field running and offloading has helped split holes in opposition defences but it’s his close quarter pick and drives that have really caught the eye and will leave the All Blacks selectors’ mouths watering. Too often in the past World Cup cycle have the All Blacks been found wanting in forward battles with the Northern Hemisphere nations – something exploited by the Lions, England and Ireland.
It’s no coincidence that Jacobson’s return to the Chiefs has aligned with their best form of the season (admittedly not a hard ask given how the first few weeks of the competition went for the men from Hamilton). Four losses to start the season have now been followed by a draw with the Hurricanes and away wins in Pretoria and Buenos Aires – the match with the Hurricanes saw Jacobson return off the bench after his lengthy absence and he has started both subsequent matches.
In 2018, the Chiefs top loose forward trio was comprised of Liam Messam, Sam Cane and Jacobson – all three players were absent this year until Jacobson returned in week 5. Messam now plays for Toulon in France whilst Cane has been absent due to the neck fracture he sustained in last year’s Rugby Championship. With Messam overseas and Cane’s chances of appearing in Super Rugby for 2019 still unknown, Chiefs coach Colin Cooper will just be happy that he can now field one of his favoured trio.
It is, of course, still very early days in this year’s Super Rugby competition. There’s plenty of time for the many candidates vying for the All Blacks number 6 jersey to stake their claim and the players who have already spent time in the national fold will naturally have an advantage over relative newbies like Jacobson.
Although the All Blacks have been the most consistent test rugby team over the last few years, England and Ireland will know that they can best New Zealand if they dominate them in the collision zone. Steve Hansen and his fellow selectors may be comfortable that they have the men and the tactics to overcome the northern union’s more aggressive forward play, but perhaps something new is exactly what the All Blacks need.
Fortune favours the bold, so don’t be surprised if Luke Jacobson is the new name on the squad sheet when the All Blacks team is announced in July.
Aaron Mauger full press conference ahead of the Hurricanes:
Comments on RugbyPass
Don’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
1 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
41 Go to commentsThanks, Nick. We (Seanny Maloney, Brett and I) just discussed Charlie as a potential Wallaby No 8, and wondered if he has truly realised how big he is in contact (and whether he can add 5 kg w/o slowing down). Your scouting report confirms our suspicions he has the materiel. No one knows if he has the mentality (as Johann van Graan said this week about CJ, Duane and Alfie B) to carry 10-15 times a game.
57 Go to commentsHe would be a great player for the Stormers, Dobbo should approach the guy.
3 Go to commentsGood article. A few years back when he was playing for the Cheetahs, he was a quiet standout for exactly the seasons stated here. I occasionally get to see his games in the UK, and he has become a more complete player and in many ways like an Irish player. His work ethic is so suitable to the Leinster game. I wonder if Rassie would have him listed somewhere.
3 Go to commentsResults probably skewed by the fact that a few clubs have foreign fly halves in their 30s, but most teams have young English scrum halves. Results also likely to be skewed by the fact that many teams rely on centres and fullbacks to provide depth at 10, whereas they will need to stock a large number of specialist backup 9s.
1 Go to commentsI really get the sense that when all is said and done, the path of least resistance will end up being a merger of Wasps & Worcester that essentially kills the Worcester Warriors brand and sees Wasps permanently playing at Sixways. I’m not saying that’s what should happen or what I want to happen. I just think it’s the easiest rout to take and therefore, will be what happens. Wasps will definitely return to play first, and I suppose it all depends on if they can find support at Sixways. If people turn up and support Wasps in that community, at that ground, I bet they drop the Sevenoaks plan and just remain at Sixways. Under the radar but not totally unrelated, it looks as though London Irish are going to be brought back from the dead by a German consortium and look set to return, likely to the remade Championship. It’s set to have 12 clubs next season with 14 in 2025/26, what do you want to bet those extra 2 are Wasps and London Irish?
3 Go to commentsThe shoulder is a “joint” with multiple bones. You don’t “fracture” a shoulder, you fracture any one or more of the bones that make up a shoulder.
2 Go to commentsOh dear, bones too suspect to continue?
2 Go to commentsBold headline considering the Canes and Blues are 1 and 2 and the Brumbies were soundly beaten by the Chiefs and Blues. Biggest surprise is Rebels 4 Crusaders 12 - no one saw that coming. If Aus are improving that’s great 👍
3 Go to commentsAnna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to commentsI think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to commentsWe had during the week twilight footy, twilight cricket, tw golf plus there was the athletics club. Then the weekend was rugby 15s plus the net ball, really busy club scene back then but so much has changed and rugby has suffered. And it was all about changing lifestyles.
6 Go to commentsIn the 70s and 80s my club ran 5 Senior sides plus a Vets. Now it is 2 sides with an occasional 3rd team. Players have difficulty getting to training now, not sure why and the commitment is not there. It seems to me more a problem of people applying themselves and not expecting to turn up and play whenever they want to.
6 Go to commentsROG’s contract is until 2027. The conversation about a successor to Galthie after RWC 2027 may be starting now. We can infer that Galthie’s reign stops then. He is throwing the Irish Coaching Job angle in because he is Irish. The next Irish coach MUST be Leo Cullen. As well as being the best coach available, coaching the vast majority of Irish Internationals week in week out, he has shown incredible skill at recruiting the best coaching staff for the job in hand. That was a failing in France. Cullen is a shrewd guy and if there is a need for foreign coaches underneath him he won’t hesitate. Rightly so. Ireland does need to start to bring Irish coaches through. Not just at the professional level but we need to train coaches to man new pathways for developing kids from schools/clubs up through the divisions.
8 Go to comments