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LONG READ The times are changing, and some Six Nations teams may be left behind

The times are changing, and some Six Nations teams may be left behind
1 month ago

The opening stanza of Bob Dylan’s prophetic number, The Times They Are A-Changin’, feels as fresh now as it did back in 1962, in the middle of the political firestorm of the Vietnam War. The sands may have shifted, but the relevance of the words is more urgent than ever. Even the tightly-knit world of rugby is in a rare state of flux. “You better start swimming or you’ll sink like a stone, for the times they are a-changin’.”

NZR sacked the head coach of the All Blacks mid-term after he posted a respectable 74% win rate, while Australia are still climbing back towards the lower ledge of respectability in the global game. The British and Irish Lions squad which appeared to have planted its flag on a rugby summit by winning the three-Test series in Aussie featured no fewer than 19 Irishmen and 14 from Leinster alone. Only a few months later, that deep pool of talent looks to be skating on thin ice after Ireland’s 36-14 loss in Paris on Thursday.

Wherever you roam, north or south of the equator, the waters have risen, as if you’re living on a high-risk rugby floodplain. Except maybe South Africa. Right now, Ireland is the focal point of that question; whether there is a lifeboat to be built, whether radical change is supportable. Not just in the emerald isle, but for the future of the game as a whole.

Six Nations
England cantered to a seven-try victory over Wales to round off the opening weekend’s Six Nations fixtures (Photo by Clive Mason/Getty Images)

When Jacques Nienaber took over the senior coaching reins at Leinster on the high of repeat World Cup success at the end of 2023, I pointed out “the Nienaber methodology is not something which can be pleasantly added to what has been taught before, like whipped cream on top of a baked cake. It will demand a total change in attitude and energy, and it may even result in Leinster losing some of their sophistication with ball in hand. Will the trade be worth it? Or will it turn out to be a capital Faustian pact?”

Just before Christmas I wrote a review of Brendan Fanning’s fine book Touching Distance: Irish rugby’s great battle with expectations, where the question remained the same – only more urgent and underlined in bold. Ahead of Joe Schmidt’s last hurrah at the 2019 World Cup, Irish players were pleading with senpai Johnny Sexton behind closed doors, ‘Are we going to play any rugby?’ The current crop may be asking the same question now.

Two days after the dust had cleared on Ireland’s loss to France, a group of respected ex-players-turned-pundits, and Leinstermen one and all – Shane Horgan, Rob Kearney and Ian Madigan – debated the fallout on Virgin Media Sports. The common theme was the erosion of the handling skills built by first Joe Schmidt, then Stuart Lancaster, in the Nienaber era. Madigan highlighted the players were ‘caught between two systems’ defensively, before first Horgan called it an ‘unforeseen consequence’ of the South African’s appointment; then Kearney drew the quintessential conclusions.

“The guy we’ve not mentioned is Stuart Lancaster. Joe Schmidt came in and made us a really good passing team. Stuart came in and ensured our forwards could ball-play just as well as the backs.

“That’s why you got the Leinster and Ireland shape with multiple options at the line at any given time.

“Ireland are reliant on [their] provincial coaches and players doing their basic ball skills all the way through the year. When they come into camp, their catch-pass is already at a certain level [of competence].

“It’s almost too late for international coaches at that stage. It has to happen day-to-day at provincial level.”

“I do think Leinster in particular, their attack and their handling have regressed since Stuart Lancaster has left.”

Rob Kearney is right. The Leinster attack has steadily deteriorated since Lancaster left, and the Ireland offence has been faithful to a tee, doubling down on that decline.

A quick glance backwards reveals prime Ireland at their 2023 Six Nations, Grand-Slamming peak were scoring from a wider variety of situations, with 35% of their tries coming from counterattack and 65% from set-piece launches. The same stats from the most recent tournament in 2025 saw counterattack tries drop to a mere 14%. Ireland built an average of 110 rucks per game in 2023, but only 90 two years later. Coincidentally, they built the same number in Paris at the weekend.

This crisis belies a bigger issue in the direction of the game. When the lawmakers decided to remove the possibility of constructing a protective ‘pocket’ or screen ahead of the receiver of high kicks, the well-intentioned aim was to create a one-on-one contest for the ball in the air. Defenders had to get out of the way of chasers and retire behind the ball instead angling in towards the catcher and stopping in front of them.

Now look at the impact, via a comparison of Ireland’s heyday with the three matches in the first round of the 2026 Six Nations.

The number of rucks has stayed the same, but the number of kicks has risen by 19 per game, to very nearly one per minute. Two of the games were played out in heavy rain, but even the third at Twickenham featured 80 kicks in fair conditions. The team which built the fewest rucks in one game [Italy, with 58] beat the team who set the most – Scotland, with a massive 139.

Is there a place for multi-phase rugby in the modern game? Are handling and passing skills executed deep into the phase count an endangered species? The remainder of this year’s tournament will go a long way to telling the tale of the tape. The refereeing guidelines around the kick-chase may yet need another tweak.

One of the teams which has read the runes and adapted the quickest is Steve Borthwick’s England. The big Cumbrian has always preferred a kick-heavy tactical approach, and at the 2025 Six Nations England were already launching 36 kicks per game into orbit, six more than the competition average. With George Ford now preferred at number 10 to Fin Smith, and Tommy Freeman’s shift to centre allowing the selection of another big aerial athlete on the right wing, the trend is likely to continue.

The quality of England’s kicking game left Wales a long, long way distant in their wake at the old cabbage patch in the last game of the weekend. The clues to the potential of England’s new midfield of Ford, with club colleagues Fraser Dingwall and Freeman, were almost universally positive. Freeman topped all ball-carriers with 14 runs for 154 metres and no fewer than nine – yes, nine – breaks or busts. Dingwall had three break or try assists while Ford conducted the orchestra, deservedly winning the player of the match award.

England run a typical shape utilising all three players in structured attack. Accurate decisions in the teeth of traffic, and the ability to offer all three options with equal facility are key to its success.

Numbers 12 and 13 run hard and straight, while 10 runs the arc to link with the remaining outside backs. There is no more than a metre between all three of them at the point of contact. England began by establishing the dominance of Freeman on the short ball.

As soon as Dingwall sees the Wales 10 at the tip of the defensive triangle, he moves the ball on, and Freeman’s power takes him all the way up to the goalline. With Wales down a man in backline play late in the half, the Saints inside centre kept the ball to narrow the defence on second phase.

The most difficult skill of all is timing the pull-back pass to the 10 running the arc, because the pass has to be delivered in the teeth of contact, and without looking at the target.

Dingwall’s first contribution is a deft pull-back to Ford at the line to release Tom Roebuck in space, then he is on hand again to take out the last defender and deliver the scoring pass to the same player.

Wales’ attempts to utilise the same shape in attack showed just how far they have fallen behind the standards demanded by the modern top-tier game.

Wales want to get Louis Rees-Zammit on to an outside arc, and into the space beyond Dingwall [in the red rectangle] but the Northampton man is in perfect position to neuter the two Welsh options. If 13 receives the ball straight ahead, he is directly in front of him; if the Welsh full-back gets the ball he is primed to push off his inside foot and shut down the space. Those who know the shape intimately, know equally well how to attack from it and defend against it.

Thia Six Nations will be a litmus test for the current trajectory of professional rugby. Will the new rules governing the contest in the air improve the spectacle, or diminish it?  Will there be too much kicking? Is multi-phase attacking rugby already a relic of the past?

Right now, England and France appear to be well ahead of the game: England with the precision-tooled accuracy of their kicking game, France with their burning desire to counterattack at every opportunity. It is Scotland and Ireland who are suffering the most. The times they are a-changin’, and for some at least, they are moving just a little too fast for comfort.


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Comments

349 Comments
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unknown 35 days ago

Think this needs a major rewrite !

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Ronnie 39 days ago

One the subject of Henry Arundell, and the red card. What a really bad decision, some refs in my opinion are bringing the game into disrepute. Henry is a very clean skilled rugby player, his eyes were on the ball all the time , two players coming together, there is always going to be a collision, He gets red carded , the week before Genge gets a pat on the back, “ come on sir “. Get it right.

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JD Kiwi 43 days ago

Exactly!

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NB 43 days ago

Especially more recently I have seen it been dropped in favour of more accurate but sophisticated measures.

Only on telly [briefly] JW, don’t believe everything you see!🤣

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NB 43 days ago

It looked pretty boring to me, if you mean the Landers game. It might do JJ some good in his ABs bid tho…


But seriously I’ll be cutting back on replies in these 300+ comment forums.


First to go will be the flamers. You have been warned🤣

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Perthstayer 43 days ago

NB - nowt to do with your article but I think you would be interested.


Look up Raeburn Shield on Instagram and all will become clear.


Someone has had a stunning shield made and is promoting the meaning and worth of a Lineal Champion.


First won by Scotland in 1871 and being contested today!

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NB 43 days ago

Is that you in the piccy P/S - ‘Perth Baywater’?😁👍

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JW 43 days ago

Like you say in your original reply though, you would have thought the Top 14 would have high BIP given that it has a greater number of players used, so they have more energy than other comps. But the results show the opposite.


I remember the All Blacks in multiple games were able to get them puffing but they always had a hardened endurance (found a way to rest and recuperate and come back doubling their efforts) and came back stronger.

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JW 43 days ago

It’s a metric that is shared across all sports, but yes, though SR was behind Prem and URC a few years ago that’s not to say the rugby of their BIP wasn’t better.


Rugby is great because that type of purpose is/was achieved organically I reckon Graham. You might say have a low importance on phase play, and kick earlier than others, or you might value continuity and be like Ireland and hold onto it for more than 5 phases. This all changes how teams structure attack, what threats they need, and how defences adjust and strategize. A set number becomes a bit bland I reckon.


But yes, there are still plenty of things that need tinkering, say for instance if a side likes to setup up rucks side to side (left left right etc) but go nowhere, if the defence is stopping them that it would be great if more pressure was able to be placed at ruck time to force their hand or risk turnover, but on the other hand if they are making nice plays down the field why restrict them in how long they can go? I like trying to create more reward for dominant tackles.


As Bull says though more of a concensus on whats need is the first stop, rather than just someone at the top saying “I think the way forward is”.

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JW 43 days ago

Not sure what you’re asking Graham, are you talking rugby?


Rugby was never stop start. Yes you had stoppages per say, but you ran to a scrum or lineout and played it immediately, there was no ‘stopping’ back in the day.


If we accept these are “stoppages” as you call them, then I think you first need to factor in that these are now (or where until recently) 3x as long. But as to you’re point I fully agree. BIP is just a simple metric that’s easy for bigwigs to improve (you just stop the clock) and should only be treated as one small component, and not like Rugcs has incorrectly used it here to try and counter JDKs point. Quality of BIP is by far more important.


While some authors over play it’s value however, I’m not sure the rugby community or top brass does. Especially more recently I have seen it been dropped in favour of more accurate but sophisticated measures.

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JW 43 days ago

Haha thats the spirit.


I really enjoyed the first Super game of the season, thought there was a lot of great tactics and option taking, not a lot of “throwbacks” but 80+ kicks!

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GrahamVF 44 days ago

Except when one of the 2 off the bench is Esterhuizen or Kwagga - both “stardust” players 😊 and of course there are others like them - but not many.

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PMcD 45 days ago

He was and did - I always thought Eddie may play Hughes at 6 with Vunipola at 8 - that would have been an absolute juggernaut pack back in the day but once they put the weight on Hughes, he was too heavy until he lost it all.

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PMcD 45 days ago

I’d completely missed this rule but Baxter is saying it’s a £250k fine if you don’t average 15 EQP’s per season in each matchday 23.


Totally copied JIFFY rules. 🤣

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PMcD 45 days ago

How good has Hooper been? Given how much he has proved himself, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him head off to PREM or Top 14 once RWC 2027 is done.


Apparently EXE doubled his money to sign him, I think Top 14 would be prepared to do the same again the way he has played.

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PMcD 45 days ago

Especially next season with Sio, Aberladze, Thchumbadze, Jenkins, Zambinin, Varney - that’s pretty much their overseas continent for the year and Tchunza would struggle to get regular games.

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NB 45 days ago

Yep I think they’d be ahead of NZ with those two at prop.

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NB 45 days ago

I do recall big Billy V being exceptionally durable under Eddie, so he played most of the games at 8.

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NB 45 days ago

It shd make a diff in the Prem, tho I don’t think Christ Tshiunza is a first choice t Exe anymore… Tom Hooper is basically better at everything a 5/6 is expected to do! So Tshiunz is only there for depth.


It is rather JIFFY rule isn’t it?

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PMcD 45 days ago

I’ve just seen the comments from Rob Baxter and I hadn’t realised Premiership Rugby had brought in this rule regarding 15 EQP players averaging in the 23 throughout the season? I had missed that and assume it was part of the Professional Game Board Deal (with increased RFU funding).


He’s suggesting Tchunza is heading back to Cardiff, as they are struggling with the 15 EQP average and Tchunza is also under pressure to sign for a Welsh club at the end of his current deal.


If you take Bath - they must be right up on that limit with Du Toit, Roux, Moloney, Russell, Redpath & Carreras in most matchday squads, which likely explains why Archie Griffin & Josh Bayliss aren’t getting as many games as you might have expected.

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PMcD 45 days ago

He was always a strange pick for Eddie, was exactly the type of combative attitude that Eddie likes but was about 30KG lighter than his norm.


I still think we wasted Nathan Hughes - Eddie was insistent on this 130KG No 8 carrier, so he put on loads of weight for ENG and then didn’t fit the Pat Lam game plan at Bristol.


Fair play to him for turning out for Hartbury on loan when he couldn’t get a game at Bristol - not many players would do that at his level. That loan signing stint was probably Stu Hoopers best ever signing. It was a real shame we couldn’t keep him with the salary cap reduction, he was probably Baths best player at the end of that season and was back to playing some of his best rugby.


He was an absolute giant of a man.

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PMcD 45 days ago

Ayerza was a great player for Leicester.


What ARG would give for two starting props like that at the moment and then I think they would be serious top level contenders. It’s the only area that keeps them out of the top 4 at the moment, the scrum isn’t quite there at present.

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NB 45 days ago

Teimana Harrison?

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PMcD 45 days ago

Not sure Luther Burrell recovered after that experience. It did break a few players over the years.

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NB 45 days ago

Harsh but fair P.

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GrahamVF 45 days ago

My point is that ball in play time is not a measurement of exciting rugby. I would suggest that after say five phases the team in possession has to have made a certain number of meters like gridiron or there is an automatic turnover - that would see some really creative play instead of biff bash biff bash.

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NB 45 days ago

Yes quite unexpected, as those four guys wd hv scrummed each other for years - Schoeman, Fagerson, Fischetti and Ferrari - and hv known each other inside out.

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SK 45 days ago

If you are building the same amount of rucks but kicking more is that a bad thing? Kicks are more constestable than ever, fans want to see a contest, is that a bad thing? kicks create broken field situations where counter attacks from be launched from or from which turnover ball can be exploited, attacks are more direct and swift rather than multiphase in nature, is that a bad thing? What is clear now is that a hybrid approach is needed to win matches. You can still build phases but you need to play in the right areas so you have to kick well. You also have to be prepared to play from turnover ball and transition quickly from the kick contest to attack or set your defence quickly if the aerial contest is lost. Rugby seems healthy to me. The rules at ruck time means the team in possession is favoured and its more possible than ever to play a multiphase game. At the same time kicking, set piece, kick chase and receipt seems to be more important than ever. Teams can win in so many ways with so many strategies. If anything rugby resembles footballs 4-4-2 era. Now football is all about 1 striker formations with gegenpress and transition play vs possession heavy teams, fewer shots, less direct play and crossing. Its boring and it plods along with moves starting from deep, passing goalkeepers and centre backs and less wing play. If we keep tinkering with the laws rugby will become a game with more defined styles and less variety, less ways to win effectively and less varied body types and skill sets.

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NB 45 days ago

If you are building the same amount of rucks but kicking more is that a bad thing? Kicks are more constestable than ever, fans want to see a contest, is that a bad thing?

It’s good question. The ball-in-play time in both 6N was roughly the same - around 38’ - so those stats may be suggesting that more of the ruck are being set inside the opposing 22 now than they were then?


The rules at ruck time means the team in possession is favoured and its more possible than ever to play a multiphase game.

I think this is the part that many modern coaches might disagree with. Scotland set 139 rucks versus Italy and that was far more than anyone else, boosting the total overall. They set 31 rucks on the final sequence of the game when they had to keep the ball in hand. Take out that one sequence and the average drops back to 165 rucks per game.


But it’s only one round and we’ll know more a few weeks’ time! I’d be quite surprised if any side averages over 100 rucks per game by the end of the comp😁

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JD Kiwi 45 days ago

That's good to hear

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JD Kiwi 45 days ago

What on earth does the excellence of five English and African players have to do with France?


The extra size and reduced need for endurance in the T14 is well documented. See for example Nick’s reply below and this article he wrote last year


“Compared to other competitions around the globe, the Top 14 is dominated by raw power and ferocious physicality. It features massive units in the tight forwards, with more frequent interchanges off the bench [12 rather than the usual eight] allowing those leviathans regular breathers.”


https://www.rugbypass.com/plus/are-bordeaux-begles-not-toulouse-the-future-of-french-rugby/

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JD Kiwi 45 days ago

Not sure of your point mate

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JW 45 days ago

Haha Saffas are so precious!

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RugCs 46 days ago

Yeah their double sub rules is a bit weird I must say. Almost NFL style.

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