LONG READ Irish provinces in danger of being left further behind, in their own country

Records tumbled for Irish provinces at the weekend. But not for the right reasons, leaving the main protagonists searching for the right words to adequately cover the their dismay. “To say we’re a long way off it is completely wrong. I believe in this group,” said one. “The outside world doesn’t realise what this group has been through throughout the whole year,” spluttered another, while another, pain etched on his face, said “It obviously leaves us swimming upstream.” Another shocked coached muttered.  “We’ve all done a little bit of soul-searching after that game, asking how we could have done things better.”

Skimming through the quotes, above, one would be forgiven for thinking they were coming from the likes of perennial strugglers Newcastle Falcons, Dragons, Vannes or Fijian Drua. Think again. Those lines emanated from a system held up as nonpareil – Gavin Coombes (Munster), Cian Prendergast (Connacht), Jacob Stockdale (Ulster) and Leinster scrum coach Robin McBryde. The good times have stopped rolling.

For the first time in 10 years (and six weeks), the four Irish provinces all lost on the same weekend. Not since March 2015, when the Welsh regions pulled off a clean sweep, have Irish rugby supporters been left without a single positive result to cling to.

Were the United Rugby Championship to wrap right now, only Leinster would make the play-offs, and next season’s Champions Cup. Munster are level on 41 points with eighth placed Benetton, but with a weaker points difference. They have flagging Ulster and Benetton at home in their final two regular season rounds so, barring disaster, should make the cut. Easier said than done, in a disaster-heavy campaign.

Munster may finish as high as sixth. They are capable of pulling it together. Even so, two provinces in the Champions Cup would represent Ireland’s worst return in the history of a competition it has triumphed in on seven occasions.

What of the other three provinces? Aside from a handful of giddy highs, all three have struggled. Two will finish the season without the head coach that led them into the campaign. All will lose stalwarts and club legends.

Before we go needs-must and remove Leinster from the equation, an acknowledgement they have stumbled in recent URC outings. Leinster thrashed Glasgow and Harlequins, en-route to a Champions Cup semi-final, but there have been defeats in two of their last four leagues matches. Bulls and Scarlets boosted their own playoff scenarios with excellent home wins against weakened Leinster sides, but ones that had multiple internationals in their match-day 23.

Leinster left Sheehan, Furlong, McCarthy, van der Flier, Conan, Doris, Gibson-Park, Prendergast, Lowe, Henshaw, Ringrose and Keenan in Dublin for that trip to Wales. If they beat Northampton Saints, on Saturday, and go on claim their fifth Champions Cup, their planning, resources and players will be hailed as masterful. If they falter again, and finish without any silverware, they will need rigorous peeling back off the canvas.

What of the other three provinces? Aside from a handful of giddy highs, all three have struggled. Two will finish the season without the head coach that led them into the campaign. All will lose stalwarts and club legends.

Rugby statistician Russ Petty offered up stark numbers, after the weekend’s URC action, highlighting the collective struggles of Munster, Connacht and Ulster against non-Irish opposition.

• 2021/22 – 24/36 wins (67% win rate)
• 2022/23 – 27/36 wins (75% win rate)
• 2023/24 – 25/36 wins (69% win rate)
• 2024/25 – 14/32 wins (44% win rate)

Added to this, Leinster have been dominant in games against their inter-provincial rivals. The blues have won all six inter-pros. Last season, they lost two of those six games so points were shared out a bit more.

Munster started the season with Graham Rowntree at the helm and memories of their URC title win, in Cape Town, not too distant. ‘Wig’ was gone before the end of October, though, and it took four months for the province to line up Clayton McMillan as his replacement. There were thrilling away wins over Connacht and La Rochelle, on back-to-back weekends but the rest of the season has been grim.

Munster had some troublesome injury issues to deal with – Mike Haley, Jean Kleyn, Craig Casey and Thaakir Abrahams all missed big chunks of the season. Their squad is not deep enough to cope and not enough younger players have forced their way into the regular rotations. They have been able to call on the likes of Calvin Nash (16 starts), Jack Crowley (14) and Tadhg Beirne (13) for most of their bigger fixtures, but the older guard have not been able to help as much. There have been just 10 starts, combined, for Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray and Dave Kilcoyne.

Ulster were already in a rebuilding phase when Richie Murphy arrived, and big changes continue. It was confirmed, last week, that eight senior players will not be around for next season, the noteworthy names being John Cooney, Kieran Treadwell and Alan O’Connor.

Murphy’s side got off to a reasonable start to the season but went into a long spiral that saw them win just two games from 10 fixtures, between late October and mid-February. There was a mini revival in the URC, before Bordeaux (in the Champions Cup) and Leinster went try-crazy. Their playoff hopes were badly dented by a costly reversal to Sharks.
Connacht’s situation is bleaker, still. Heading into the season, Pete Wilkins has built a squad with experienced Ireland internationals, club stalwarts, interesting foreign signings and a liberal sprinkling of precocious youngsters, led by Cian Prendergast. “We know people are going to underestimate us and maybe see us as an easy game,” Mack Hansen told us, ahead of the season. “That’s great – they can do that all they like. We’ve talked about it. We don’t care about what anyone else thinks. We’re going to make it really s**t to play against us, wherever we are.”

Losing all six of their inter-pro matches in the URC put paid to any dreams of a 2015/16 miracle run, and focused switched to the Challenge Cup. Connacht’s plan was looking solid until Racing 92 arrived in Galway and squeaked out the right side of an 11-try thriller. They lost four straight games when former head coach Pete Wilkins stepped away, on sick leave. Wilkins departure was confirmed as permanent, a fortnight ago, with Cullie Tucker in as interim head coach until the end of the season.

Here is where each of the provinces sit, as we head into the final regular season rounds:

MUNSTER: Won 7, Lost 9, Points 41. Matches remaining – Ulster (home) & Benetton (home)

ULSTER: Won 7, Lost 9, Points 38. Matches remaining – Munster (away) & Edinburgh (away)

CONNACHT: Won 5, Lost 11, Points 35. Matches remaining – Edinburgh (home) & Zebre (away)

Munster would still back themselves to make the playoffs, and I would hold a similar view. They have Ulster and Benetton and home, and showed in 2022/23 that going on the road in knock-out games does not faze them.

Benetton, before they travel to Limerick, are at home to a Glasgow side chasing maximum points to lock in second spot, and keep pressure on leaders Leinster. Scarlets (43 points) and Cardiff (46) have given Welsh rugby a welcome tonic but both sides finish their regular season with stints in South Africa. Each point is likely to be won at a cost.

Ulster have Munster, away, then travel to Edinburgh. Connacht face the Scots, on the previous weekend, then travel to Italy to take on faltering Zebre. Both sides know they will need to win all remaining matches, possibly with try-scoring bonus points, then wait for final tallies.

As it stands, all three provinces are in danger of not only missing out on Champions Cup rugby. They are in danger of being left behind, in their own country. Andy Farrell and Simon Easterby have proved they care little about provincial ties, sentiment or pundit hot-takes.

This summer’s tour to play Georgia and Portugal – overseen by Paul O’Connell – will have a decent spread of players selected from the provinces. When the big names return from British & Irish Lions duty, the squad will turn decidedly blue.

If one were to look ahead to a squad Farrell may pick for Ireland’s November return to Soldier Field, Chicago, it could have as many as 25 Leinster players included. Farrell wants cohesion and form in their Ireland squad. Leinster are holding everything together.