Wallabies great tips upset ahead of pivotal Barrett and McKenzie clash

Legendary Wallaby Tim Horan has tipped a shock upset in the Super Rugby Pacific Qualifying Finals, backing Beauden Barrett to lead the Blues past Damian McKenzie’s top-seeded Chiefs and into the semi-finals.

McKenzie was one of the competition’s best during the regular season, ranked among the elite in Player of the Year voting and made the Team of the Year. In 11 starts, ‘DMac’ scored 171 points, which was 67 more than any other player – Tom Lynagh ranked second with 104.

With forwards like Tupou Vaa’i and Luke Jacobson laying down a marker, McKenzie thrived as world-class backs finished with flair out-wide. The Chiefs were the best team in Super Rugby during the round-robin, and a lot of that comes back to McKenzie’s genius in the No. 10 jersey.

But with all the pressure and expectation that comes with playing finals football, this weekend’s clash with the Blues is the biggest test of the year for both the Chiefs as a team, and McKenzie as an individual game-driver.

Barrett will line up opposite McKenzie in a fascinating matchup between the two favourites to start for the All Blacks at first five-eighth. This head-to-head battle may be the key to victory for both teams, as Horan explained in the lead-up to Saturday’s clash in Hamilton.

“Sometimes I talk about [how] players are made for Super Rugby, and Damian McKenzie is one of those,” Horan said on Stan Sport’s Rugby Heaven.

“But both these players are made for Super Rugby and they take their Super Rugby form into Test matches, and not many players can do that.

“Barrett, he can play any position in the backline and he’s got so much vision.

“Whoever plays the best will win the match I think, out of those two 10s. They’ll get similar ball and they’ve got similar styles of game. I’m actually picking the Blues in an upset, only because if Barrett is on the field for 80 minutes, the Blues are such a good chance to win the game.”

McKenzie was a consistent starter for the All Blacks last year, before Barrett took over during the Northern Tour. Barrett was called into the run-on side to face the Wallabies in Wellington before starting in Tests away to England, France and Italy.

Head-to-Head

Last 5 Meetings

Wins

3

Draws

0

Wins

2

Average Points scored

21

24

First try wins

60%

Home team wins

40%

While McKenzie was still named in World Rugby’s Dream Team, some were unconvinced by the pivot at Test level in 2024. With Richie Mo’unga also winning yet another title in Japan, the debate over New Zealand’s top No. 10 rages on.

Who coach Scott Robertson starts for the All Blacks against the French this July remains to be seen, but this weekend’s game is potentially an opportunity for McKenzie to prove “that he is the better player” compared to Barrett.

“For me with McKenzie, and this is nothing against how great he is because he’s incredible, and he shouldn’t feel like this, but I feel like he feels like he lives in the shadow of Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett,” former Wallaby Cameron Shepherd explained.

“Especially when he puts on that black jersey, that’s why he struggles. In the Chiefs jersey, we know how incredible he is and he performs and just such an incredibly high level.

“This will maybe be an opportunity for him to go head-to-head with Barrett and maybe just throw all that baggage off his shoulders and that’ll help him when he does play for the All Blacks later in the year.

“It’s just a chance to one-on-one show that he is the better player.”