'Wales should have been ahead in the first half': Hope for Gatland

It may seem counter-intuitive to take positives from a half that was lost by 20 points to zero, but stats appear to be on the side of Wales following their showing against Scotland on Saturday.

Scotland surged to a 20-0 lead against Warren Gatland’s side at half-time in the Guinness Six Nations clash at the Principality Stadium, leaving many scrambling to scroll through the history books at the break to look up various record defeats.

The scoreboard was very clearly not on Wales’ side after 40 minutes, but curiously there was one stat that was- and one that will give Gatland plenty of hope moving forward.

On BBC’s Scrum V  on Sunday, Sean Holley revealed that Wales had actually accumulated more Expected Points in that first half, with 17.9 points to Scotland’s 14.4.

“Wales should have been ahead in the first half and, ultimately, should have won the game,” he said, which is a statement that has not necessarily been well-received online.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 “Wales should have been ahead in the first half and, ultimately, should have won the game.”@_SeanHolley walks us through expected points… 📈

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— BBC ScrumV (@BBCScrumV) February 4, 2024

The positive for Gatland is that, despite a very lopsided scoreline at the break, it was a case of Wales underachieving whilst Scotland overachieved. Holley said that XP takes into account “entries into the 22, possession, territory, carries, line breaks,” showing the chances were there for Wales, they just did not capitalise on them. That is a promising position that most teams would not usually find themselves in after shipping a point every two minutes.

What is even more bizarre is that Wales’ XP in the second half was lower than the first, down to 14.7, suggesting they hugely overachieved in that second 40. Meanwhile, Scotland performed as expected after the break, scoring seven points with an XP of 7.4, doing enough to hold on.

In total, that suggests Wales should have actually won the match, or at least had the opportunities to win the match. Of course, being wasteful is not a desirable trait, but it could be worse.

Scotland’s win will go down as one of the strangest wins in recent Six Nations history, but these stats are perhaps even stranger.