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Title favourites? How the All Blacks have a 53 percent chance of winning the World Cup
From commentators, sports betting sites, to World Cup fortune-telling animals, there are plenty of places fans can turn to when predicting the winner of the 2019 Rugby World Cup.
However, few turn to science. And according to expert analytics led by Senior Fellow at Motu Economic and Policy Research Niven Winchester, the All Blacks have a 53.6 per cent chance of winning the Webb Ellis Cup.
Statistical models developed by Winchester for analytics website Rugby Vision, build rating systems for international teams to estimate the expected result for each game.
In the current Rugby Vision Global Rankings, New Zealand are at the top of the table even though Wales are number one in the official World Rugby rankings.
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The All Blacks lead in ranking points based on statistics from winning when they are expected to lose, winning by more points than expected and loses by fewer points than expected.
Additionally, England and South Africa are ranked higher by Rugby Vision than World Rugby.
In the Rugby Vision rankings, unlike in the official ratings, differences between rating points for any two teams equal the predict score margin for a game played at a neutral venue.
The All Blacks lead in ranking points based on statistics from winning when they are expected to lose, winning by more points than expected and loses by fewer points than expected.
Additionally, England and South Africa are ranked higher by Rugby Vision than World Rugby.
In the Rugby Vision rankings, unlike in the official ratings, differences between rating points for any two teams equal the predict score margin for a game played at a neutral venue.
If the strongest team according to Rugby Vision’s rankings always won, is shows how the knockout stages of the World Cup would play out.
However, as Japan’s shock victory over South Africa in the 2015 World Cup and New Zealand’s early exit from the 2007 tournament illustrate, upsets do happen.
The ratings estimate that the All Blacks would beat England by 6.81 points on average, but in some of those 100 games New Zealand would win by more or fewer than 7 points, England would win some games, and a small number of games would be drawn.
It turns out that, according to the Rugby Vision’s model, the All Blacks would win 68 of the 100 games, England would win 29, and three games would be drawn.
Continue reading below…
Simulating the Rugby World Cup
To determine the probability of each team advancing to various stages of the Rugby World Cup, Rugby Vision simulated the tournament 10,000 times.
For each game in each simulation, a different value is used to account for the variation in expected score margin.
On average, higher-ranked teams have a greater chance of progressing to the various knock out stages.
According to Rugby Vision, New Zealand are clear favourites with a 68.1 per cent chance of qualifying for the final and a 53.6 per cent chance of winning the competition.
Despite playing in arguably the toughest pool, England are second-favourites, with a 15.5 per cent probability of winning the tournament, followed by South Africa with a 12.9 per cent chance.
The estimates also reveal that while it is highly likely that New Zealand and South Africa will qualify for the knock-out stages in Pool B, other pools are more competitive.
In Pool A, Japan has a 26.7 per cent chance of qualifying for quarterfinals, at the expense of Ireland or Scotland; there should be a tight competition between France and Argentina for the second quarterfinal spot in Pool C; and there is a 10.4 per cent chance that Fiji will cause an early exit for either Wales or Australia in Pool D.
The All Blacks will play South Africa, Canada, Namibia and Italy in pool matches starting on September 21, before heading into the knockout rounds.
This article first appeared on nzherald.co.nz and was republished again with permission.
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Comments on RugbyPass
SBW is fast becoming a laughing stock, his misplaced comments & lack of insight Is actually pretty sad.
4 Go to commentsJust well you guys are couch 🛋 potatoes selector's, picking a team of greenhorns to play England! “What are you people smoking?” The halfbacks will be Christie, Fakatava, Perenara Props; Newell, Bower, Lomax, Tunga'fasi, Hookers; Asosa Amua when fit, Taylor, Samisoni,
11 Go to commentsQuite frankly, all this is a bit pathetic. The first time Wales get the Wooden Spoon in 21 years and everyone is on the bandwagon for a ‘play-off’ game. Wales have no obligation to Georgia and no obligation to the rest of the Six Nations to play such a game. If they want Georgia in so badly then they need to include South Africa into a Northern Hemisphere competition with 2 leagues of 4 teams with the top 2 competing for the Championship. Sadly, this will end Triple Crowns and Grand Slams forever. Is this really what you want?
4 Go to commentsI think Finau to start Blackadder to come on. Poss Prokter instead of Ioane, haven't seen much from Reiko so far this year.
11 Go to commentsJoe will have had a good chat with Dave Rennie, a smart move to begin with while it’s doubtful Fast Eddie will be consulted? Plenty of Aus players hitting top form so they should go OK.
3 Go to commentsMmm. Not sure I like this article or see it as necessary.
4 Go to commentsBlackadder but no Finau! 😀 It’s Razor so you are probably right, plus Taylor at 2…
11 Go to commentsThe strongest possible AB side would actually include Aaron Smith, Bodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Leicester Fainga'anuku, Shannon Frizzel.. don’t get me started on the rest of the injury hit brigade that got flung on the heap so left. Many a whole not getting filled as of yet.
11 Go to commentsI don’t think anyone knows what Schmidt will do, one thing is certain it ain’t gonna be all the picks we on the keyboard will think. My impression of him is that he will be looking at who can step up and what is the best combination. He will ignore individuals as he looks for guys who can build a powerful team and not just guys who can make a flashy run or ignore the winger as they want to score themselves.
3 Go to commentsSome dumb selections there. Not Porecki Not Donaldson Not Gordon Not Lonegran - both Not Nic White - Fines instead Not Liam Wright Not Paisami Definitely not Vunivalu Other than that not bad.
3 Go to commentsI've never been convinced that Patty T is a test match all black. Otherwise I probably agree it's the best side available to beat the poms. Caveat that Codie Taylor is yet to be seen and could very likely warrant selection by June. I hope that Razor brings the young loosies, half backs and locks into the training squad and develops/ selects the best
11 Go to commentsYou doing the same thing I disliked about the example of Samisoni Taukei'aho, Nick. He’s great the way he is, you’re trying to do what modern-day coaches frustrate me doing, turning everyone into the perfect athlete. Next thing you’ll be telling me you’ll bench him until he’s hit that arbitrary marker, and can’t overtake the current guy who’s doing all his workons. He’s a young Kieran Read, through and through, plays wide and has threat, mainly (and evident in your clips) through his two hand carry and speed. Just let him work on that, or whatever he wants, and determine his own future. Play God and you risk the players going sideways, like Read did, instead of being a Toutai Kefu. I mean I was in the same camp for a while, wanting our tight five to have the size, and carry ability, as the teams they were getting beat by. Now I’m starting to believe those teams just have better skilled and practiced individuals, bigger by upwards of 5kg sometimes, sure, but more influentially they have those intrinsic skills of trust and awareness. Basically our guys just didn’t know wtf they were doing. Don’t think I’m trying to prove a point here but hasn’t Caleb Clarke been in much better form this year, or does he just ‘look’ better now that he’s not always trying to use his size?
44 Go to commentsThe pack lacks a little in height for the line out and I wouldn’t be completely convinced by some of the combinations till we see it in action.
11 Go to commentsThe side is good but lacks experience. International playing bona fides udually trumps super rugby form for good reason. And incumbents are usually stuck with. Codie Taylor should start or come off the bench. B Barrett will start at fullback. Blackadder has not earned the position, Finau has. TJs experience and competitiveness earns him a starting role, Christie or Ratima off the bench
11 Go to commentsPretty good side. Scott Barrett should be the captain. Ethan Blackadder a great choice at blindside. He is going to go from strength to strength having made a couple of starts for the Crusaders. Scott Robertson rates him highly. Perenara could start a no 9.
11 Go to commentsI question and with respect. Was enough done over the last few years to bring through new blood knowing the Whitelocks and co couldn’t last forever. There should have been more done to future proof the team. New squad new coach, he and they weren’t set up well. IMO
6 Go to commentsJacobsen will definitely be in the 23
11 Go to commentsLots of discussion points, Ben, but two glaring follies IMO: 1. Blackadder at 6. Has done nothing so far this season to justify his selection. Did you see him going backwards in contact at the weekend? Simply has not got the physical presence at 6: we need a Scott Barrett or a Finau (or wildcard Ah Kuoi), beasts who are big enough to play lock, like Frizzell. If Barret played at 6, Paddy could be joined at lock by Vai’i or one of the young giants we need to promote, like Darry or Lord (if he ever gets on the field). Blackadder best left to join the queue for 7. 2. Not even a mention for Christie? Ratima gets caught at crucial times at the back of the ruck when he hesitates on the pass. The only way he starts would be if Christie and TJ are injured.
11 Go to commentsWhat a dagg in more ways than one
6 Go to commentsRegroup come back next year but sack some of the coaching team and don't be like the ABs last minute sacking. If Crusaders don't do well ABs don't do well.
5 Go to comments