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By Tom Vinicombe
The William Webb Ellis Trophy.

World Cup expansion on the cards?

The noise out of Rugby HQ in Ireland suggest that World Rugby are seriously looking at the possibility of expanding the 2023 Rugby World Cup to include 24 teams instead of the usual 20. The last time the tournament expanded was in 1999, when the number of competitors climbed from 16 to 20.

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The argument for supersizing the tournament is, of course, that it gives the opportunity for more nations around the world to be exposed to top flight rugby. When it comes to deciding the bottom seeded teams in the competition, there’s very little separating the countries that make the cut and those that don’t. Even if it only adds a couple of games against Tier 1 and 2 teams to the lower ranked teams’ rugby calendars, this would still be a huge boon for those nations.

The counter-argument, naturally, is that the tournament becomes bloated with teams who, realistically, have a snowball’s chance in hell of making the knockout rounds. As it stands, a mere 12 countries have qualified for the World Cup finals in its 28-year history, and already complaints emerge competition after competition from the Tier 1 coaches that their teams are undercooked when they reach the serious side of the competition.

If more teams are admitted to the World Cup, it will be imperative that the tournament structure does not end up a jumbling mess like some other competitions. When the first expansion took place, some 19 years ago, the decision was made to run with five pools of four – with the top two teams from each pool qualifying for the finals, alongside the highest ranked third placed team (Argentina, as it so happened).

Current Pumas head coach Mario Ledesma in action during the 1999 Rugby World Cup Quarter Final.

Unusual as the decision was, it allowed for the round robin stages of the competition to be completed in only two and a half weeks – something which would have been impossible with four pools of five. With extra precautions taken over player welfare now, we may well see a similar situation arise if the World Cup does expand. Come 2019, each team will play four matches over three weeks, and it’s unlikely that World Rugby will want to extend the length of the tournament any more than the six weeks it will currently run for (including all finals matches).

Six pools of four, of course, would further frustrate the higher ranked teams who will end up with even fewer ‘meaningful’ games than they currently have. Whatever the result, increasing the number of competitors in the 2023 World Cup will have to be managed very carefully so as not to upset the balance of the quadrennial tournament.

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European rugby gunning for quality over quantity In club rugby circles, it seems that expansion is out of the question. In fact, the Champions Cup could well be set to reduce the number of teams to avoid some of the supposedly more dour fixtures.

The Champions Cup currently includes 20 teams from across Europe (six teams from England, six from France and seven from the European Pro14 competitors, plus one extra team determined by a number of criteria), but it seems that many of the English clubs are unhappy with the current arrangement and want to drop at least one team from each of the feeder competitions.

Of course, if the Champions Cup has poor quality matches due to the low calibre of the competing teams, then the logical conclusion is that the Premiership Rugby, Top 14 and Pro14 competitions must also have primarily uninspiring games – an assertion that would upset many people.

In English circles, at the very least, a major shake up could be on the cards in the near future with the Premiership clubs recently considering a £275m offer from CVC Capital Partners for a controlling stake in the competition. Though ultimately rejecting the offer, you can bet that CVC and other private investors will be knocking on Premiership Rugby’s door in the future to try get a bite of the pie.

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One way or another, English rugby is looking to expand into more enticing markets – what their plans are and how they intend to accomplish them is anyone’s guess.

Waikato sidestep writing their names back into the history books

In stealing the Ranfurly Shield of Taranaki last Sunday, Waikato set themselves up for years of potential heartache.

The Log of Wood, as it’s affectionately referred to in New Zealand, is the country’s oldest and, arguably, most revered rugby trophy. The holders of the Shield put the talisman up for grabs every time they host another provincial team and, although there have been a few lengthy tenures throughout history, the Shield has tended to trade hands at least once a season in recent times.

Waikato celebrate winning the Ranfurly Shield.

Waikato, the third most successful Ranfurly Shield team (at least when it comes to number of tenures), were also the team with the shortest tenure in the Shield’s history for a number of years, losing the trophy after barely a week back in 2007. Hawke’s Bay pipped their ‘record’ in 2013, managing to keep the Shield in Napier for a mere six days before having it claimed by Counties Manukau.

The contraction of New Zealand’s provincial season in recent times has meant that teams sometimes play three games in the space of eight days. Waikato played Taranaki in the second game of their ‘murder week’, which gave Hawke’s Bay the opportunity to snatch the Ranfurly Shield off Waikato when they’d barely had time to add it to their trophy cabinet.

Thankfully for Waikato supporters, their team managed to repel the Hawke’s Bay onslaught and triumph 42-22 in their first shield defence of the year – otherwise the province would have found themselves back in the history books with a lowly four-day tenure to their name.

In other news:

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Mzilikazi 2 hours ago
How Leinster neutralised 'long-in-the-tooth' La Rochelle

Had hoped you might write an article on this game, Nick. It’s a good one. Things have not gone as smoothly for ROG since beating Leinster last year at the Aviva in the CC final. LAR had the Top 14 Final won till Raymond Rhule missed a simple tackle on the excellent Ntamack, and Toulouse reaped the rewards of just staying in the fight till the death. Then the disruption of the RWC this season. LAR have not handled that well, but they were not alone, and we saw Pau heading the Top 14 table at one stage early season. I would think one of the reasons for the poor showing would have to be that the younger players coming through, and the more mature amongst the group outside the top 25/30, are not as strong as would be hoped for. I note that Romain Sazy retired at the end of last season. He had been with LAR since 2010, and was thus one of their foundation players when they were promoted to Top 14. Records show he ended up with 336 games played with LAR. That is some experience, some rock in the team. He has been replaced for the most part by Ultan Dillane. At 30, Dillane is not young, but given the chances, he may be a fair enough replacement for Sazy. But that won’be for more than a few years. I honestly know little of the pathways into the LAR setup from within France. I did read somewhere a couple of years ago that on the way up to Top 14, the club very successfully picked up players from the academies of other French teams who were not offered places by those teams. These guys were often great signings…can’t find the article right now, so can’t name any….but the Tadgh Beirne type players. So all in all, it will be interesting to see where the replacements for all the older players come from. Only Lleyd’s and Rhule from SA currently, both backs. So maybe a few SA forwards ?? By contrast, Leinster have a pretty clear line of good players coming through in the majority of positions. Props maybe a weak spot ? And they are very fleet footed and shrewd in appointing very good coaches. Or maybe it is also true that very good coaches do very well in the Leinster setup. So, Nick, I would fully concurr that “On the evidence of Saturday’s semi-final between the two clubs, the rebuild in the Bay of Biscay is going to take longer than it is on the east coast of Ireland”

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Sam T 8 hours ago
Jake White: Let me clear up some things

I remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.

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Ed the Duck 15 hours ago
How Leinster neutralised 'long-in-the-tooth' La Rochelle

Hey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂

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FEATURE Cardiff Rugby's band of brothers unite for the promise of brighter times ahead Cardiff Rugby's band of brothers unite for the promise of brighter times ahead
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