Tana Umaga makes changes, universe explodes
If Tana Umaga didn’t understand how much scrutiny he will face as Blues coach, he sure does now. And all it took for him to create mass hysteria was to make a few changes to a winning team.
Adages die harder than John McClane, and that’s especially true of those that apply to rugby union. One of them is “you don’t f*** with a winning team”, which, amazingly, has reared its cliched head in the last twenty-four hours on the back of Tana Umaga making six changes – SIX WHOLE CHANGES – to his Blues starting fifteen for this Friday’s match against the Crusaders.
Yes, Tana f***** with his team’s line-up.
Quite why people are astonished, astounded and/or bewildered is beyond me. There are a couple of reasons: first, before last Friday, very few pundits thought anyone would be talking about the Blues as a winning team and, second, you would have thought that after years of ‘rotation’ as a (hugely successful) All Blacks strategy, we may have become accustomed to a full-squad system which, when applied well, actually works.
Perhaps it’s just a Blues thing. After all, the two-time champion Chiefs are renowned for making wholesale changes on a weekly basis, yet Dave Rennie’s selection whims have never been given the grilling Umaga’s have received in just his second tournament week. One headline read: “Blues Take Major Gamble”. But is it really a major gamble?
Worse, no sooner had the team been released yesterday than one broadcaster actually compared Tana Umaga to Sir John Kirwan – the former coach who oversaw arguably the biggest decline in the Blues performance since the team cracked the shits with David Nucifora and sent him back to Australia. How is it even possible to make that kind of comparison after one (winning) week?
There was wailing, gnashing of teeth, shaking of fists, general howls of despair; there may even have been a loose and evolving plan to form a mob and descend on Blues HQ. As usual, there was little said specifically about what these changes might mean in the context of a game, so allow us to calmly guide you through Umaga’s crazy* plan, so we can all stay calm.
Jerome Kaino in, Joe Edwards out
Joe Edwards didn’t do much wrong on Friday night. Ran often (for some tough metres, too) and made three tackles. Edwards is in the wider training group and with respect to him he probably wouldn’t have started on Friday had Kaino not been suspended.
This substitution should be removed from the discussion, because KAINO IS THE DAMN CAPTAIN! Of course he starts. This is such a given that, in reality, Umaga’s only made five changes.
Quentin McDonald in, James Parsons out
This kind of selection happens all the time with hookers. It’s a case of what’s best against a certain opponent. If I could offer a more succinct argument it would be, “nothing to see here, please disperse”. At the Crusaders, the choice is between the more dynamic and athletic Codie Taylor or the more physical and defensively-minded Ben Funnell. At the Chiefs it’s a toss up between Hika Elliot (when fit), Nathan Harris, and the more conservative Rhys Marshall. Rotating hookers is not news. It’s just good business.
Billy Guyton in, Bryn Hall out
Amazingly, and going back to the adage thing, last week almost every conversation about the Blues devolved into the usual bullshit about them not having a nine or a ten. Nek minnit, Hall puts up an assured performance that includes six runs for 21 metres and a try assist, and now no-one can believe he’s been benched.
Except, you have to hand it to Guyton, who closed out the game with a run and gun routine of his own, putting up four carries for more metres (32 in total) than Hall. Guyton has been picked to mess with Andy Ellis’s head, and the inside defence. It’s a legit call.
Matt McGahan in, Ihaia West out
Let’s start by reviewing the first point on Bryn Hall above. Okay, now let’s move on. McGahan played two minutes of code against the Highlanders, and that was as a fullback so any attempt to give this some statistical relevance would be silly. McGahan has, however, put together an entire pre-season campaign as Guyton’s partner, so if you think about how important Guyton’s job is on Friday night, then it makes sense to buddy him up.
Bryn Hall and Ihaia West on a tiring Crusaders defence? That’s a great bench option.
Rene Ranger in, Male Sa’u out
Oh please, don’t tell me you didn’t want to see this! Ranger, Sa’u and Moala are the Blues’ midfield three-card trick. Take one off, put another one on, watch the carnage. Get used to it – this change falls into the same category as the Kaino one. In other words, Umaga has really only made four changes, which is not even news.
Matt Duffie in, Lolagi Visinia out
Renowned as one of the best kick receivers in the NRL, Matt Duffie comes into a game against a team that kicked the crap out of it against the Chiefs (making a conference-high 30 kicks in play in round one) and one which loves to play without the ball (they claimed just 12 minutes in possession in round one), and one that hasn’t made a single personnel change. Matt Duffie may be on debut but this is a dream for a fullback who loves getting a touch. As Damian McKenzie showed last week.
Of course, if the Blues lose then Umaga should quit immediately.
*not crazy
Comments on RugbyPass
I like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
8 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
8 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
8 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. At least Andrew Kellaway is like “Woah, yeah it’s great, but settle down there guys” having endured years of the Aussie media, fans, and often their players getting ahead of themselves only to fall flat on their faces. Have the “We'll win the Bledisloe for sure this year!” headlines started yet? It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
8 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
41 Go to commentsThanks, Nick. We (Seanny Maloney, Brett and I) just discussed Charlie as a potential Wallaby No 8, and wondered if he has truly realised how big he is in contact (and whether he can add 5 kg w/o slowing down). Your scouting report confirms our suspicions he has the materiel. No one knows if he has the mentality (as Johann van Graan said this week about CJ, Duane and Alfie B) to carry 10-15 times a game.
57 Go to commentsHe would be a great player for the Stormers, Dobbo should approach the guy.
3 Go to commentsGood article. A few years back when he was playing for the Cheetahs, he was a quiet standout for exactly the seasons stated here. I occasionally get to see his games in the UK, and he has become a more complete player and in many ways like an Irish player. His work ethic is so suitable to the Leinster game. I wonder if Rassie would have him listed somewhere.
3 Go to commentsResults probably skewed by the fact that a few clubs have foreign fly halves in their 30s, but most teams have young English scrum halves. Results also likely to be skewed by the fact that many teams rely on centres and fullbacks to provide depth at 10, whereas they will need to stock a large number of specialist backup 9s.
1 Go to commentsI really get the sense that when all is said and done, the path of least resistance will end up being a merger of Wasps & Worcester that essentially kills the Worcester Warriors brand and sees Wasps permanently playing at Sixways. I’m not saying that’s what should happen or what I want to happen. I just think it’s the easiest rout to take and therefore, will be what happens. Wasps will definitely return to play first, and I suppose it all depends on if they can find support at Sixways. If people turn up and support Wasps in that community, at that ground, I bet they drop the Sevenoaks plan and just remain at Sixways. Under the radar but not totally unrelated, it looks as though London Irish are going to be brought back from the dead by a German consortium and look set to return, likely to the remade Championship. It’s set to have 12 clubs next season with 14 in 2025/26, what do you want to bet those extra 2 are Wasps and London Irish?
3 Go to commentsThe shoulder is a “joint” with multiple bones. You don’t “fracture” a shoulder, you fracture any one or more of the bones that make up a shoulder.
2 Go to commentsOh dear, bones too suspect to continue?
2 Go to commentsBold headline considering the Canes and Blues are 1 and 2 and the Brumbies were soundly beaten by the Chiefs and Blues. Biggest surprise is Rebels 4 Crusaders 12 - no one saw that coming. If Aus are improving that’s great 👍
3 Go to commentsAnna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to commentsI think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to comments