Into Super Rugby's final stretch - the Contenders
With the June internationals out of the way, it’s time for the Southern Hemisphere’s premier rugby competition to resume.
Realistically, there are only nine teams vying for eight spots in the finals, which means the last three rounds of competition are all about deciding seeding for the tail end of the competition. Given that the odds have historically favoured the home teams in the Super Rugby finals, more so than in most competitions, we’re set for fireworks in the last few rounds. The teams will be counting the cost of the June internationals and scoping out who is still left standing after some injuries and suspensions to key players.
How is each team fairing with a few rounds remaining?
Crusaders
Points: 54
Ranking: 1
Games remaining: BYE, Highlanders (H), Blues (H)
Barring a huge collapse, the Crusaders have all but sewn up top spot in the competition. They’ve got one game fewer to play than most teams, including their closest rivals, the Hurricanes, but their impeccable record so far this season means it’s unlikely they’ll be usurped from the top of the competition. Of course, momentum is almost as important as home-ground advantage going into the finals, so the Crusaders will want to build on their 10-match winning streak. The Crusaders will be eagerly watching to see who their opponent will be – hoping to avoid any NZ teams in the finals.
Lions
Points: 40
Ranking: 2
Games remaining: Sharks (A), BYE, Bulls (H)
The Lions will be pushing hard to ensure that the Jaguares can’t steal their spot at the top of the South African conference. The nature of the competition means that if the Lions succumb to the Jaguares, they’ll likely drop five places and could end up travelling to Australia for the finals. With talismans Warren Whiteley and Malcolm Marx ready to return to action, it would be surprising to see them cede ground to their conference compatriots. Like the Crusaders, the Lions may well be more interested in seeing who they will be facing in the first round of the finals.
Waratahs
Points: 35
Ranking: 3
Games remaining: Rebels (A), Sunwolves (H), Brumbies (H)
The Waratahs have the easiest run-in of the teams vying for finals places – but they’ve also been hurt by the June Internationals. Michael Hooper sustained a hamstring injury which will see him miss at least the rest of the regular season games whilst Israel Folau is waiting to see whether he will have to sit out any matches due to suspension. As with the Lions, the Waratahs could concede a number of places if they are eclipsed by the Rebels – so this weekend shapes up as a big one with a match between the two top Australian teams. With all three of their last matches being very winnable, the men from Sydney will be aiming for a second-place finish and hopefully forcing a South African team to travel to face them in the quarters.
Hurricanes
Points: 45
Ranking: 4
Games remaining: Brumbies (A), Blues (H), Chiefs (A)
The Hurricanes are the best-placed team to steal the Crusaders’ top seeding from under their nose – but a few extra unlikely results will have to go their way. The Hurricanes will be sweating on the fitness of Beauden Barrett, who sat out the All Blacks’ most recent match due to concussion. Ardie Savea’s short-term future is much less uncertain – he will be lucky to feature again for the Hurricanes this year. With the Highlanders and the Chiefs chomping at their heels, the Hurricanes will need to win at least two of their remaining games to guarantee a home quarterfinal – they will just be miffed that securing a home semi-final is outside their control, given the queer nature of the competition.
Highlanders
Points: 40
Ranking: 5
Games remaining: Chiefs (H), Crusaders (A), Rebels (H)
The latter half of Super Rugby coincides with the onset of the southern hemisphere winter, so the Highlanders will be thankful that only one of their remaining regular-season matches will be played in the elements – in fact, Fiji is next on the agenda where they’ll take on the Chiefs. All three of the Highlanders’ opposition are jostling for position in the finals, so every game will be intense. The break probably didn’t come at the best time for the southerners. Having just given the Hurricanes a walloping in Dunedin the Highlanders would have been quite happy to keep building on that form. On the brighter side, there are a number of new All Blacks amongst the Highlanders ranks and the time spent in the international set-up will have given them plenty of motivation to lift their game even further.
Chiefs
Points: 37
Ranking: 6
Games remaining: Highlanders (A), Brumbies (H), Hurricanes (H)
The closeness of the standings at the moment means that the Chiefs could finish as high as fourth, cementing a home quarterfinal, or as low 12th, completely out of the playoff pictures. Their biggest rivals for that fourth spot are their NZ rivals the Hurricanes and the Highlanders – who the Chiefs conveniently still have to play once more. Even with a slew of wins, the Chiefs will still be relying on the Hurricanes slipping up at some point. Ironically, finishing in fifth could be the worst result as that would all but guarantee a playoff game in Wellington, which would likely be a harder challenge than facing off against the top Australian qualifier. The biggest bright spot for the Chiefs is that their horrific injury ledger is diminishing by the day – a number of their stars could be back for their first match against the Highlanders, with others such as Nepo Laulala and Brodie Retallick also likely to be available in the near future. Come the playoffs, the Chiefs could well have the best team available that they’ve had all season.
Jaguares
Points: 34
Ranking: 7
Games remaining Stormers (H), Bulls (A), Sharks (A)
The Jaguares are the highest ranked team in contention for a finals spot who haven’t actually won the competition before – they also have yet to even featured in a finals series before. On a roll prior to the June break, the Jaguares will hope to continue where they left off, but they may find that more difficult than the other teams. Whilst other teams have had the luxury of a few weeks of rest (or, at least, slightly less intensity than playing every week), the Argentinian national team is comprised solely of Jaguares players. Men such as Nicolas Sanchez, Agustin Creevy and Emiliano Boffelli featured largely in all three matches the Pumas played over the break. It will be very interesting to see whether the Jaguares fade in the final weeks of the competition or if the potential for breaking new ground galvanises the squad and they push for a historic first place in a knockout match.
Rebels
Points: 34
Ranking: 8
Games remaining: Waratahs (H), Reds (A), Highlanders (A)
The Rebels have arguably the most favourable run-in of any of the potential qualifiers, simply given the relative weakness of the Australian conference. The Victorians have intra-conference match this season – away to the Waratahs, so they will be hoping to make amends in the return fixture in Melbourne before kicking on against the Reds in Brisbane. If they can win both of those fixtures, then the Rebels could be in for a home quarterfinal – even if they can’t triumph over the Highlanders in their final match of the regular season. The Rebels will be looking to finish their season the way it started and avoid a repeat of the mid-season blip they suffered this year. Still, providing that the team doesn’t capitulate, they are on track for their first-ever appearance in the finals – a good accomplishment considering they finished bottom of the Australian teams last year and were close to being kicked out of the competition altogether.
Sharks
Points: 28
Ranking: 9
Games remaining: Lions (H), Stormers (A), Jaguares (H)
Based only on the numbers, the Sharks are unlikely to make an appearance in the top eight come the end of the season. As it stands, they’re 6 points behind their nearest rivals and by no one’s account have easy games remaining. That being said, the Sharks do have the benefit of still getting to play the Jaguares at home in Durban. It will be the end of an incredibly taxing competition for the Jaguares for reasons already mentioned, so the Sharks will fancy their chances. Win that match and there will only be two points separating the two teams – which the Sharks should be able to make up in their first two matches. Yes, the Sharks may be a long shot to snatch the Jaguares’ place in the quarterfinals – but it’s not impossible.
The final few rounds of 2018’s iteration of Super Rugby are going to be very interesting due to the many matches taking place between the top teams – some matches which will likely be repeated in the finals series. The last round of the competition, in particular, sees 6 of the teams vying for qualifier spots battling it out, meaning we’re probably not going to know who’s travelling where until the last match of the round robin. Get ready to settle in for what’s shaping up to be a titanic last three weeks in the regular season.
In other news:
Comments on RugbyPass
After their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
3 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
2 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
3 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
29 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
2 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
3 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
3 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to comments