South African teams are no closer to winning a Super Rugby title as drought enters ninth year
The conference-leading Sharks have a win-loss record of 5-5 and the cellar-dwelling Lions have a win-loss record of 5-5.
All that separates the top from the bottom in the South African conference is bonus points – which begs the question why on earth did Stormers fullback Damian Willemse try to run a missed penalty kick back from in front of his own goal posts with time on the clock expired instead of ending the match.
The turnover of possession shortly after that ill-advised decision gave the Bulls another chance to score and take away a losing bonus point – which they did. Perhaps the Stormers, written-off by many after a 40-3 loss in Pretoria at the hands of the Bulls in the first round, were just happy to get the win. Never mind that the Bulls now sit one point ahead of them in the conference.
This is the state of Super Rugby in South Africa – a team considered the worst in the country, mired with off-field administration issues – is still in the thick of the conference race sitting 3rd despite themselves, and could perhaps win it, while no team is consistent enough to be considered better than average at this stage.
While Rassie Erasmus praised the early season form as being test-match like due to the prevalence of high percentage of territorial kicking, time has proven this approach of yesterday doesn’t win championships in Super Rugby today.
Three of the top five teams that kick the ball out-of-hand the most are South African, while a fourth, the Jaguares, play in the same conference. Only the Lions opt to play a possession-based game and subsequently kick the third least in the competition. While they are languishing this year, this is the approach that led to making the final for three straight seasons.
While kicking in exit zones inside your own 22 is generally a good idea, too many aimless kicks are made to play territory by South African sides in midfield zones, often for no other good reason than that they can’t hold shape for long. These kicks often go uncontested and are just hoofs downfield for as much distance as possible.
The Bulls’ territorial kicking game, led by Springbok flyhalf Handre Pollard, has failed to consistently control games recently and the lack of strike power in the Bulls’ game against the Stormers was apparent without someone like flyer Rosko Specman.
The Stormers, without their own territorial kicker SP Marais and with livewire Damian Willemse in the line-up, came alive. Their counter game produced two critical tries to do enough to keep the Bulls at reach. After taking over 160-minutes to score their first try of the season, have found some ability in attack in the absence of clinical structure. They produce the third most offloads in the competition and have found ways to create opportunities through creative types like Dillyn Lleyds in broken play.
The Bulls are renowned for taking the points at every opportunity, and while Pollard is the leading scorer in the competition, this three-first approach is flawed. It can win derby games, but it will generally comes up short against the New Zealand sides. The Bulls defence was torn apart 56-20 by the struggling Chiefs, denting the case for playing this way in Super Rugby.
With just 20 tries so far, the Bulls have the least amount of any team. Their game strategy is papering over cracks, giving hope for titles which cannot be delivered.
Four of the top five sides with the most points per game are filled by Kiwi teams – Crusaders (1st), Highlanders (2nd), Hurricanes (3rd) and Chiefs (5th). Building a high-scoring attack is a pre-requisite to winning Super Rugby, or at least, matching it with the New Zealand sides. The Chiefs and Highlanders aren’t likely to feature at the business end this year, but the Hurricanes and Crusaders most definitely will.
Seven is greater than three, and with the Crusaders scoring upwards of 25 points in 20-minute windows, you have to be able to play with the ball to starve them of the opportunity. While it seems like no one will match it with the Crusaders this year, only one of the four South African teams is taking the right approach to get there.
The Lions title window may be closing, but they have shown the blueprint.
In their three finals appearances since the last World Cup, they beat the Crusaders, Highlanders, and Hurricanes in the playoffs to get there. They were a high-flying side with aggressive attacking intent and knocked over quality New Zealand teams consistently.
Had they been able to keep Johan Ackermann along with key pieces like Jaco Kriel, Faf de Klerk, and Franco Mostert, they would likely still be the premier side in South Africa today by some distance. They have still scored the most tries this season of any South African side and it wouldn’t surprise if they end up on top of the conference again, despite not having the same level of team as the last few seasons.
However, kicking less and trying to play with ball-in-hand immediately won’t pay off for all the rest of the South African teams. It would in all likelihood see the number of wins drop in the short-term. To implement the type of system required to open up teams with possession and ball movement requires a full-scale roster review and far more complex thinking from coaches and players alike. Skills over extra brawn, speed and mobility over extra size.
The Faf de Klerk’s, Curwin Bosch’s and Cheslin Kolbe’s are proof that the South African system that could deliver the type of rugby seen in New Zealand. As the Crusaders push towards a third consecutive title, in a decade where New Zealand has seven of the last nine titles, the mediocrity of the South African conference is as telling as ever as is the play of the majority of the sides.
Just who wins the conference will be an intriguing battle but it won’t matter in the bigger Super Rugby picture.
Comments on RugbyPass
best news and very helpful
4 Go to commentsA year ago Ireland and France looked impressive. In this 6N neither looked special. Both have lost good players, but more importantly teams have figured out how to shut them down. In particular the Irish loss to a rebuilding England and the home game struggle against a brave Scotland did nothing to prove that the Irish RWC result was undeserved. If the Scots can shut down the Irish attack, then SA can do so with interest. Rassie will have watched that game with confidence. Farrell is smart, and the Irish team is talented, so we should expect a more creative game plan in SA. But if all they bring is what they showed against Scotland then Ireland is going to struggle against the Boks. It was a fun 6N tournament, but the win for Ireland was as much about weak competition as about Irish brilliance. It was mostly due to France being off the boil, Wales and Italy not being contenders, and Scotland being a home game. England are looking much better, but “much better” should not be enough to topple a team that is supposed by some to be The Best in the World. I hope that Ireland can bump it up a notch or two for the Bok tour. A year ago they were fantastic to watch. It would be great to see that again.
24 Go to commentsLooking forward to the Wallabies being competitive again. No doubt that Joe can get them back on track.
1 Go to commentsThanks, Nick, not only for this fine article, but for all the others during 6N 2024. I really enjoyed this 2024 tournament, and felt it was one of the best for many years. That final match in Lyons was really good. England were certainly unlucky when that speculative hack by Ramos lead to a French try. It could just so easily have landed in English hand.s, and they score at the other end. I did think though that the French played some great rugby, and some of their driving play in the forwards was just fearsome. I watched Meafou with interest, and he has a good start to his career. It is interesting to compare him with Will Skelton. Lot of similarities, though so far Meafou has not shown any offloading threat. All credit to Borthwick for being prepared to change, and what great result, even if that last game was lost at the death. I feel they are a real chance to cause the AB’s problems this winter/summer. Finally a comment on Ireland. I thought their last game was their worst, and they did not look like the world’s No 2 side at all. What really worries me is that the loss to England was, in my view, down to poor decision making by the coaching group, and ofc Andy Farrell wears that. It was a big mistake to move JGP away from scrum half. Murray should have been the one to go to the wing. And the “finishers” should have been on the field earlier. And this is the second time this has happened. The RWC Qf against the AB’s, and not getting Crowley onto the field was a huge mistake. Finally, finally, watching Italy play was a joy. How wonderful that they are no longer the punchbag of the 6 N.
43 Go to commentsGreat story. Rugby needs new investment in teams like Brussels another pro league in Europe would be great.
1 Go to commentsAlso, looking at the data from last year, it seemed like by far the two biggest predictors of success were (1) kicking more than your opponents, and (2) having a higher rate of line-out wins than your opponents. I haven’t gone through the stats this year with a fine tooth comb, but the increase in kicks per game and the increase in tries from lineouts would suggest that these two metrics are only getting more important. England’s move away from a kick-heavy game to win against Ireland was seen by some as evidence that running rugby is on the rise. Alternatively it could be taken as evidence that if one team kicks more, and the other team wins more lineouts (as England did) a match is bound to be close to a draw.
2 Go to commentsI have been finding it odd that points per 22 entry has become such a talked about stat, given that your points per entry can be driven down by having more entries. These data would seem to confirm that it isn’t a useful metric, or at any rate is less useful than total entries.
2 Go to commentsI think the last two games England have played is some of their best rugby they have played under Borthwick. There has been a lot more attacking instinct and as a reward have created some well worked tries. Ollie Lawrence is a good foil at 12 as he offers the hard direct lines whilst the rest of the backs can play open. As much as it pains me to say but I do hope England keep playing this way. On a side note my favourite try of the weekend was Lorenzo Pani’s for the nice loop play that put him away and his finish was excellent. Thanks as always Nick.
43 Go to commentsMost exciting player on the planet right now, worth the price of a ticket.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith and Ireland live rent free in Safa’s heads. Their comments only triggers because its true. If the Boks had dismantled a 14 man AB’s, then there would be more respect. But they didnt, in fact quite the opposite, the 14 man NZ were clearly better. And the Bok have always been ordinary between RWC’s, thats why their supporters are now ‘only RWC’s matter’. They know thats BS. Its BS to both AB’s and Bok’s due to their history. But now its all the Safas have. Now we’ll hear excuses when they lose “oh we didnt have all our players available, the ABs/France/Eng/Irel were at full strength”, forgetting for a minute that its because of their own dumb policy. Oh well, makes a change from blaming ‘cheating refs’.
24 Go to commentsNo Nick, they did not, in fact, justify any ‘probables’ label. At no time did they seriously compete for the championship. Ireland led from start to finish and in the end, as a result of glaring referee errors, were never under serious pressure to lose their crown.
43 Go to commentsMoney for him, and his family, has been the sole motivator since he signed for Queensland aged 17. Why else sign for Melbourne. Tupou is poorly advised. If he’d stayed and developed in NZ he would have had a long Test career. If Leinster offer him a few more coins than he’s currently earning, he’s goneburger.
4 Go to commentsFinn. No one would say Ford had played well up until the last game. One standout performance in 5 is hardly in form . It should be a given that a 10 will control play . Not in Fords case be praised for suddenly doing so. Where was he against Scotland ,Italy. The pundits were saying how far away from play he was standing and one even said that the Ireland game was his last chance saloon to perform . Not exactly top form catching anyones eye. If he can play like this game after game then great. Keep him in . But after 90 odd caps we all know he just doesnt keep it going . By all means keep him there but the issue is that Borthwick will persist even when he plays poorly. Which is more often than not. Thats why i am concerned that Smith ,despite fab form , cannot get a game at his preferred spot. Can you imagine Ford at full back .
5 Go to commentsI do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
6 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
43 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
4 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
4 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to comments