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Rassie Erasmus has tried to hide it, but he can't hide no more
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Springboks head coach Rassie Erasmus has played his cards to the best of his ability, but he can’t hide it anymore.
The Boks don’t have a Bomb Squad in this series.
The innovative tactic was a brilliant discovery, using data, stats and performance metrics to conclude that no matter what level of conditioning the forwards had, their effectiveness & power would drop by as much as a third in the final 20 minutes of a Test.
That was a significant finding as most heavyweight Test matches would be decided in the final 20 minutes. Not being able to hold up the maul or scrum could prove fatal with a penalty. Tired forwards unable to hold the gainline could also matter. Over 80 per cent of teams that win the gain line win the match.
They also found that injuries to outside backs early in a game was statistically rare, so loading a bench with six or seven forwards was less risky than many thought.
So for a good three years the Bomb Squad helped the Springboks win the final quarter. The fresh pack gave South Africa power & strength when they needed it.
But the Springboks don’t have a Bomb Squad in this series and Erasmus has tried to mask it.
They’ve been outscored in both second 40s, by 21-3 at Ellis Park and by 12-9 in Cape Town, with the All Blacks storming back by 12-3 in the final 20 minutes.
In the first Test, after Steenekamp gave away the scrum penalty to the All Blacks, he pulled him for a reserve hooker.
Steenekamp had already replaced Ox Nche after 45 minutes. Erasmus kept Malcolm Marx on for 80 minutes which meant he had to then put him on the bench for the 2nd Test.
That bench in Johannesburg cost the Springboks. Not just because they lost Kurt-Lee Arendse early which put pressure on the 6-2 split, but the performance also. Steenekamp couldn’t do what Ox did, Marco van Staden had a brain explosion and it cost him his place in the 23. Cobus Reinach also compounded matters with the second yellow.
The way the bench was managed also speaks to the lack of Bomb Squad impact with staggered introductions. He gave reserve lock Cobus Wiese just seven minutes, while the emotional decision to yank a fresh Steenekamp showed a lack of trust.
Knowing that Marx had played big minutes in game one, the front row with Nche, Marx and Louw were always going to be coming off the bench in game two. The finish was so bad in Johannesburg, they needed to reverse that.
They got a fast start in Cape Town and then Erasmus gambled the entire series in the 35th minute by sending Ox Nche and Malcolm Marx into the game early with the Boks having a scrum five metres out. They held a slim 17-14 lead minutes from the half.
It was a brilliant tactical substitution. But had they blown that opportunity and not converted with a try to Siya Kolisi, they would have lost that game. The early introduction of that front row left them tired in the final 20 minutes, which saw the All Blacks dominate the final quarter.
Erasmus gambled to get a strong buffer on the scoreboard, and then turned to Kolbe’s boot to keep that cushion knowing that he had pulled the trigger early. It worked. Just. If you add five minutes to that game, the All Blacks have a high chance of equalising.
Now ahead of the third Test, the debt is due for playing his older veteran forwards for big minutes across the first two Tests.
Pieter-Steph du Toit, who looked way off the pace in the first Test coming back from injury, has played all 160 minutes. His second rowers, Eben Etzebeth and Ruan Nortje have played 153 and 147 minutes.
Erasmus doesn’t have locks. RG Snyman is the big omission, a world class lock who makes a big difference. Snyman is sidelined with a long-term injury. He doesn’t seem to think Lood de Jager is up to it returning from injury. He gave him only 13 minutes and then he got sin binned anyway.
He’s flogged his second rowers and named them again for the third Test, which will be at altitude this time.
Big Jasper Wiese was gassed in Cape Town after his showing in the first Test. He managed 21 metres on 11 carries and was shut down by the All Blacks. He’s now clocked 147 minutes. He’s named to start again. He’s only got 35 minutes in him this week.
Malcolm Marx is now at 125 minutes. Is he going to play 80 again like the first Test? Ox Nche and Wilco Louw are at 90 and 84 minutes.
So the first choice front row is back in the starting side. And they are tired. And they are playing at altitude.
Erasmus will be finally forced to rely on the second string unit, which is Deon Fourie, Gerhard Steenekamp and Premiership force Thomas du Toit.
Steenekamp has been a liability this series, Fourie was a stable pick while du Toit is fortunately relatively fresh. However, if Fourie is forced to play the second half at hooker, the All Blacks need to go after this part-time thrower relentlessly.
There’s just been one change to the Springboks 23, with winger Kurt-Lee Ardende returning. There are no fresh legs up front. There are old forwards with huge mileage now carrying big minutes.
They are heading to the Highveld where the All Blacks have won eight of the last 10, to a stadium where the All Blacks are 2-0. The Boks have conceded nine tries in two Tests already.
The wheels are about to fall off this pack. There is no Bomb Squad to save them.
Batten down the hatches Rassie, the debt is due and the collector is coming.
