Paul The Super Rugby Oracle's Semifinal Tips: Just How Important Is Home Advantage?
Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
Like the four remaining Super Rugby franchises, our tipping guru Paul is peaking at the right end of the season. He correctly predicted the four quarterfinals last weekend to nudge his season prediction record to 109/139 or 78%. Here’s what he’s tipping for this weekend’s semifinals.
Hurricanes vs Chiefs
I’m a great believer in home field advantage at this stage of the season. I’m also a believer in the team that has topped the table being better than the one that finished sixth, even if it was really closer than that this season. Neither do I like the idea of picking a side after crossing the Indian Ocean twice in a week – nobody has won the title in 20 years after having to make that trip. Then add in that no New Zealand team has yet lost a home semi, and you get the picture. I don’t fancy the Chiefs chances at all this week, despite them being a good side.
True, the Chiefs did beat the Hurricanes in Wellington back in Round 9, but my recollection is that the Hurricanes did everything possible to lose a game there for the taking – including Jason Woodward shelling Beauden Barrett’s last pass with the line open. The Hurricanes created a dozen or more chances against a team that created (and took) just four, and they dominated the Chiefs at the set-piece all night. In recent weeks the Hurricanes have been the hot team in the competition, and it’s very hard to see them going cold on it now. Even if Dane Coles is ruled out, they are in such a good head space that I can see them winning this one by a bit, and getting hosting rights for the second straight year.
Pick: Hurricanes (13 and over)
Lions vs Highlanders
This, I think, is the harder of the two games to pick. But I’ll go back to all the points made above about home field, and factor in that the Highlanders haven’t won at Johannesburg since 2005 despite putting up a good fight every time, and come to the same conclusion as before – it’s better to be playing at home at this time of year. Their Round 3 match might look lop-sided in the Highlanders favour but it wasn’t really – it was decided by a couple of moments of brilliance in a killer third quarter, and some of those tries were beyond the capacity of most teams.
The Lions have learned from that, and in recent weeks they have been, along with the Hurricanes, the most dangerous attacking force in the competition. Apart from the game at Buenos Aires which saw the main players stay home, the Lions have scored at least 37 points in their last six wins (all on the Veldt) and play the sort of game the Highlanders normally inflict on the opposition. The home side is quick, dangerous on attack and capable of suffocating defensive pressure, while being well aware of how best to play at altitude. Of all offshore teams, I think the Highlanders have the best game plan for Ellis Park but, despite my admiration for the Southern men, I can’t see past a Lions win.
Pick: Lions (12 and under)
Comments on RugbyPass
We had during the week twilight footy, twilight cricket, tw golf plus there was the athletics club. Then the weekend was rugby 15s plus the net ball, really busy club scene back then but so much has changed and rugby has suffered. And it was all about changing lifestyles.
6 Go to commentsIn the 70s and 80s my club ran 5 Senior sides plus a Vets. Now it is 2 sides with an occasional 3rd team. Players have difficulty getitng to training now, not sure why and the commitment is not there. It seems to me more a problem of people applying themselves and not expecting to turn up and play whenever they want to.
6 Go to commentsROG’s contract is until 2027. The conversation about a successor to Galthie after RWC 2027 may be starting now. We can infer that Galthie’s reign stops then. He is throwing the Irish Coaching Job angle in because he is Irish. The next Irish coach MUST be Leo Cullen. As well as being the best coach available, coaching the vast majority of Irish Internationals week in week out, he has shown incredible skill at recruiting the best coaching staff for the job in hand. That was a failing in France. Cullen is a shrewd guy and if there is a need for foreign coaches underneath him he won’t hesitate. Rightly so. Ireland does need to start to bring Irish coaches through. Not just at the professional level but we need to train coaches to man new pathways for developing kids from schools/clubs up through the divisions.
7 Go to commentsNo Islam says it must rule where it stands Thus it is to be deleted from this planet Earth
18 Go to commentsThis team probably does not beat the ABs sadly Not sure if BPA will be available given his signing for Force but has to enter consideration. Very strong possibility of getting schooled by the AB props. Advantage AB. Rodda/Skelton would be a tasty locking combination - would love to see how they get on. Advantage Wallabies. Backrow a risk of getting out hustled and outmuscled by ABs. Will be interesting to see if the Blues feast on the Reds this weekend the way they did the Brumbies we are in big trouble at the breakdown. Great energy, running and defence but goalkicking/general kicking/passing quality in the halves bothers me enormously. SA may have won the World Cup for a lot of the tournament without a recognised goalkicker but Pollard in the final made a difference IMO. Injuries and retirements leave AB stocks a bit lighter but still stronger. 12 and 13 ABs shade it (Barret > Paisami, Ione = Ikitau, arguably) Interesting clash of styles on the wings - Corey Toole running around Caleb Clark and Caleb running over the top of Toole. Reece vs Koro probably the reverse. Pretty even IMO. 15s Kelleway = Love See advantage to ABs man for man, but we are not obviously getting slaughtered anywhere which makes a nice change. Think talent wise we are pretty even and if our cohesion and teamwork is better than the ABs then its just about doable.
11 Go to commentsCompletely agree. More friday night games would be a hit. RFU to make sure every club has a floodlit pitch. Club opens again Saturday to welcome touch / tag. Minis and youths on Sunday
6 Go to comments1.97m and 105Kg? Proportionately, probably skinnier than me at 1.82 and 82kilos. He won’t survive against the big guys at that weight.
55 Go to commentsThe value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
7 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
11 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
55 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
11 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
55 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
7 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
55 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
55 Go to commentsNot too bad. Questions at 6, lock and HB for me. The ABs will be a lot stronger once Jordan and Roigard return. Also, work needs to be made to secure Frizzell back for next season and maybe also Mo’unga; they’re just wasting time playing in japan
55 Go to commentsOn the title, i wonder for many of those people it is a case something like a belief in working smarter, not harder?
1 Go to commentsForget Sotutu. One of those whose top level is Super Rugby. Id take a punt on Wallace Sititi Finau ahead of Glass body Blackadder.
55 Go to comments