Paul the Super Rugby Oracle’s Round 8 Tips: Can The Reds Do It Again?
Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
In the end, Round 7 went largely the way everyone expected, although a lot of games were far closer than they should have been. The only big surprise was the Reds win over the Highlanders in Queensland, which ruined an otherwise perfect week for Super Rugby tipping oracle Paul Neazor. 6/7 on the week brings his season record to 41/55 and raises his success percentage by one point to 74%. Here are his predictions for Round 8’s smorgasbord of Super Rugby.
Crusaders vs Jaguares
The Crusaders completed a good tour with a very scruffy win, while the Jaguares are finding Super Rugby tours can be a grind, and their odyssey is nowhere near at an end. Many expected them to go quite well this season but they’ve battled just like every other expansion team in competition history. The Crusaders need to understand that they can’t be as careless as at Perth again, and that hanging onto the football rather than booting it away for no good reason might be quick roads towards earning a superior position in this match. If they get that right they should go on to win comfortably, even if the margin may not blow out until the dying stages.
Pick: Crusaders (13 and over)
Rebels vs Hurricanes
The Rebels are travelling well and currently sit second in the Australian conference, but that’s due to the weakness of the group as much as any superior ability from the Melbourne lads. The Hurricanes are just starting to get their act together and have put 40 points on each of their last three opponents. When they start rolling they can be formidable and they’re starting to roll a little more regularly. I think the Rebels are overachieving just at present and they aren’t good enough to get close to a playoff spot, and they’re likely to have that pointed out this Friday.
Pick: Hurricanes (13 and over)
Cheetahs vs Sunwolves
The Cheetahs beat the Sunwolves at Singapore by a point after seemingly not taking them all that seriously. They haven’t won since, but also haven’t got a hiding in that time. The Sunwolves haven’t won since then either and have been close a couple of times, but they got thoroughly done over last week at Cape Town. For many of them this week will be their first experience of altitude (while Bloemfontein isn’t high veldt it’s still high enough to notice a difference). The Cheetahs will really target this game, and most likely do it through their big forward pack. I’m going for the home side to win comfortably.
Pick: Cheetahs (13 and over)
Blues vs Sharks
A cursory glance at the tables might suggest the Sharks are strong and going well, while the Blues are average and struggling, but it’s not quite as simple as that. For all their big names, the Sharks aren’t showing much on attack. The Blues are defending well, and started looking like the business on attack last week. Reiko Ioane played as if he meant it for the first time, while Ihaia West is getting more comfortable running the show. I rate the Blues a good chance to end this ten-match losing run they’ve had against the Sharks over the last decade. From what I’ve seen in the last few weeks they should be the better side, and could be comfortably the better side.
Pick: Blues (13 and over)
Waratahs v Brumbies
This is early to be playing a return match of what should be one of the most important matches in the Australian group, but on 2016 form it won’t live up to pre-season expectations. The Brumbies – even without David Pocock – are going well enough, while the Waratahs simply are not. The ‘Tahs have any number of issues that need fixing but a creaking tight five, careless handling in the backs, average goal-kicking and the inability to get Israel Folau into the game are high on the list. So I’m picking the Brumbies, who will be steady-as-she-goes, to buck the 20-year trend and take the win on Waratahs soil.
Pick: Brumbies (13 and over)
Bulls vs Reds
The Bulls haven’t played anyone who matters for weeks; the closest they have come was the Sharks, who should have won but for Joe Pietersen’s inexplicable miss from straight in front, and they’ve played some dire footy in that time. The Reds are still not a playoff team, but they do have two or three things going for them: a very steady set piece, a rugged defence that’s getting better, and a blossoming young playmaker in Jake McIntyre who is actually a good player despite what the Courier Mail might say about him. So I’m going out on a limb and picking the Reds. If they were good enough to crack it against the Highlanders, they’re good enough to take the Bulls.
Pick: Reds (12 and under)
Lions vs Stormers
Take a deep breath – this is the first of two meetings that will decide which of these sides is the better-placed South African outfit at the end of the season. Who would have picked it? The Lions are travelling well, while the Stormers have that big pack and a serviceable backline that has been grinding out wins – not pretty ones, but wins nonetheless. But they also have issues at flyhalf (down to number three at the moment) and lock, where Eben Etzebeth is injured again, and the Lions don’t seem to have many worries about much. Since the game is at Johannesburg I’m going for the home side; they play a different style at Ellis Park and understand it, and I think it may just be a few points too much for the Stormers.
Pick: Lions (12 and under)
Comments on RugbyPass
We had during the week twilight footy, twilight cricket, tw golf plus there was the athletics club. Then the weekend was rugby 15s plus the net ball, really busy club scene back then but so much has changed and rugby has suffered. And it was all about changing lifestyles.
6 Go to commentsIn the 70s and 80s my club ran 5 Senior sides plus a Vets. Now it is 2 sides with an occasional 3rd team. Players have difficulty getitng to training now, not sure why and the commitment is not there. It seems to me more a problem of people applying themselves and not expecting to turn up and play whenever they want to.
6 Go to commentsROG’s contract is until 2027. The conversation about a successor to Galthie after RWC 2027 may be starting now. We can infer that Galthie’s reign stops then. He is throwing the Irish Coaching Job angle in because he is Irish. The next Irish coach MUST be Leo Cullen. As well as being the best coach available, coaching the vast majority of Irish Internationals week in week out, he has shown incredible skill at recruiting the best coaching staff for the job in hand. That was a failing in France. Cullen is a shrewd guy and if there is a need for foreign coaches underneath him he won’t hesitate. Rightly so. Ireland does need to start to bring Irish coaches through. Not just at the professional level but we need to train coaches to man new pathways for developing kids from schools/clubs up through the divisions.
7 Go to commentsNo Islam says it must rule where it stands Thus it is to be deleted from this planet Earth
18 Go to commentsThis team probably does not beat the ABs sadly Not sure if BPA will be available given his signing for Force but has to enter consideration. Very strong possibility of getting schooled by the AB props. Advantage AB. Rodda/Skelton would be a tasty locking combination - would love to see how they get on. Advantage Wallabies. Backrow a risk of getting out hustled and outmuscled by ABs. Will be interesting to see if the Blues feast on the Reds this weekend the way they did the Brumbies we are in big trouble at the breakdown. Great energy, running and defence but goalkicking/general kicking/passing quality in the halves bothers me enormously. SA may have won the World Cup for a lot of the tournament without a recognised goalkicker but Pollard in the final made a difference IMO. Injuries and retirements leave AB stocks a bit lighter but still stronger. 12 and 13 ABs shade it (Barret > Paisami, Ione = Ikitau, arguably) Interesting clash of styles on the wings - Corey Toole running around Caleb Clark and Caleb running over the top of Toole. Reece vs Koro probably the reverse. Pretty even IMO. 15s Kelleway = Love See advantage to ABs man for man, but we are not obviously getting slaughtered anywhere which makes a nice change. Think talent wise we are pretty even and if our cohesion and teamwork is better than the ABs then its just about doable.
11 Go to commentsCompletely agree. More friday night games would be a hit. RFU to make sure every club has a floodlit pitch. Club opens again Saturday to welcome touch / tag. Minis and youths on Sunday
6 Go to comments1.97m and 105Kg? Proportionately, probably skinnier than me at 1.82 and 82kilos. He won’t survive against the big guys at that weight.
55 Go to commentsThe value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
7 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
11 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
54 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
11 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
54 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
7 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
54 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
55 Go to commentsNot too bad. Questions at 6, lock and HB for me. The ABs will be a lot stronger once Jordan and Roigard return. Also, work needs to be made to secure Frizzell back for next season and maybe also Mo’unga; they’re just wasting time playing in japan
54 Go to commentsOn the title, i wonder for many of those people it is a case something like a belief in working smarter, not harder?
1 Go to commentsForget Sotutu. One of those whose top level is Super Rugby. Id take a punt on Wallace Sititi Finau ahead of Glass body Blackadder.
54 Go to comments