Lions will be too much for undercooked Springboks - Andy Goode
Warren Gatland has sprung a host of surprises in his team selection but the Lions will be too much for an undercooked Springboks.
He has mixed and matched personnel with certain players to combat the physicality that we all know is coming together with others who can up the tempo and the plan is clearly to make a fast start.
South Africa have got several players who have just come out of isolation or have barely played at all in the build-up and they have only had one official Test as a team since the 2019 World Cup so there’s every chance they can catch them cold.
The selections of the likes of Ali Price, Elliot Daly and Duhan van der Merwe reflect that. Conor Murray looked like one of the only players nailed on to start when he was named as Alun Wyn Jones’ replacement as skipper but there’s no doubt Price brings far more pace.
Daly has had a great tour thus far and offers more of a threat on the outside than Bundee Aki or Chris Harris and Josh Adams is unlucky but van der Merwe has size on his side.
His battle with Cheslin Kolbe will be key because the Toulouse man has the ability to expose anyone and van der Merwe has been guilty of missing some defensive reads but he’s explosive in attack and will trouble Kolbe in a way that the Lions’ other wingers can’t.
Daly hasn’t started a centre for England since his Test debut against South Africa back in 2016, with Eddie Jones picking him first on the wing and then at full back, but he was clearly selected as a number 13 on this tour and I’ve always said it’s his best position.
We know Gatland isn’t afraid to make the big calls, having dropped Brian O’Driscoll for the third Test in 2013, and this line-up is certainly a bold one and one that I don’t think any pundit in Britain got right in terms of their predictions.
In the forwards I think numbers one to five picked themselves really and then he’s married up the game-breaking ability of Jack Conan with the hard-hitting of Courtney Lawes alongside Tom Curry, who brings just about everything and was another automatic selection.
Aside from Lawes and maybe Stuart Hogg, this is also a team that has very definitely been picked on form with players who have excelled on tour being given the opportunity to start the first Test and you have to applaud that.
By all accounts it almost took the toss of a coin to decide between Hogg and Liam Williams and perhaps the Welshman’s recent concussion was the difference but the Scotland captain deserves his chance to finally feature in a Test on his third British & Irish Lions tour.
The game plan will be to play with a pace and intensity that the Boks just can’t handle because they haven’t played enough top level rugby in the build-up and the bench will be crucial to that.
Both sets of replacement forwards look incredibly strong, with South Africa having arguably their first choice front row in reserve, but the Lions clearly have an edge among the backs replacements.
Murray and Owen Farrell may not look like X-factor players to come on and change a game but they’ll see things from the sidelines and be able to come on and make a difference, whereas I think the Springboks will be in real trouble if Elton Jantjies has to come on and fill in for Handre Pollard too early.
As always, we don’t want to be talking about the refereeing in the aftermath but there’s obviously a huge responsibility on Nic Berry’s shoulders and Gatland has planted the seed when discussing his role.
South Africa’s defence relies massively on line speed and offside is always a question mark with that so flagging it in the build-up to the game is a smart move, as ever, from the Lions head coach.
Gatland is none too happy about the last-minute appointment of South African Marius Jonker as the TMO for all three Tests and I absolutely agree with him.
If he needed to step in for the first Test because of the pandemic-related travel disruption for Brendon Pickerill, that’s fine, but there’s no need for him to be appointed to all three Tests. There should be a better Plan B in place from World Rugby.
Jonker missed a fair bit when he was TMO for the Lions’ defeat to South Africa A and I’m sure his professionalism won’t be called into question in terms of favouring one side or the other but all eyes will be on him and he’ll need to have his best game as a TMO.
It isn’t just the background of the South Africa A game and the history of what happened in the Tests in South Africa in 2009, he needs to come in and help the referee with a lot of the borderline incidents and stuff happening off the ball rather than trying not to make a decision.
Hopefully neither Jonker nor Berry will be mentioned post-match and it’ll come down to the fine margins between the two teams. If you look through the Springbok side, you don’t see a lot of weaknesses but I think the key one is that they’re undercooked. Combine that with a drop-off in quality in the halfback replacements and I just see the Lions having the edge.
History tells us how important the first Test is on a Lions tour, maybe more so this year than most, and I may be looking through British & Irish Lions red-tinted spectacles but I’m excited by the team selection and I just think the Lions win this by 10 points.
Comments on RugbyPass
I agree ..come on keyboard warriors and journalists looking for a cheap win ….. only 2 mins to go 12 points down …this DID NOT decide the game and beside JM was hit after the whistle and in response it was a pat on the back of the head …harmless ….watch soccer if this is your issue
4 Go to commentsRest is for namby pamby sissies, I see. True men should overcome their trifling injuries by playing week in, week out. Bidwell’s stance reminds me of a Jon Gadsby character from the 70s, a rugby captain giving an after-match speech: “It was a very physical contest. One of our players caught a boot on the back of his head in a ruck, and he died, actually. But to his credit, he played on.”
1 Go to commentsI still see nothing in Sotutus play that hes changed his upright running style that failed so many times against decent international defences like the french. Other than that… Iose? Well you have covered his limitations well. If Sititi had been playing the the season… Jacobson? Grace?…Neither shout pick me. So Ardie it is.
1 Go to commentsThere isn’t one element you mentioned there that every top class or successful team gets up to. The great All blacks sides used to play on the ‘fringes or edge’ but it was essentially saying they were doing something illegal or borderline to gain dominance. The fine margins at the top are minute between the top sides. La Rochelle, the crusaders, Saracens, Toulon etc etc…..have all been accused. Get over it, the comment comes across as salty and naive. Northampton as well as they played to get back into the match were thoroughly beaten and controlled for 60 minutes and Leinster have only themselves to blame for kicking it away and hence losing control of the match and being nearly the architects of their own downfall.
2 Go to commentsThere is some talent coming thru thats for sure. The 10 looks special to me. Rico Simpson is a name to look for in the future.
1 Go to commentsI think this quiet honestly is just an innocent misunderstanding by someone who is pig sh*t stupid. Eben is a fine player but by christ, if he can’t understand or get what the Irish players were trying to say to him after the match…..well i hope he has someone looking after his finances, career and is reading the fine print for him, cause life after rugby may be quite difficult for the vacuous echo chamber.
27 Go to commentsIt could be Doris' day!
3 Go to commentsThe whole thing has blown up because Eben’s words have clearly struck a nerve in Ireland. Otherwise they would just laugh it off. I think some former Irish players, commentators and some Irish fans know deep down this Ireland team started to believe its own press and that a certain amount of arrogance had started to creep in during the World Cup. The topic was actually brought up by Irish pundits on Off the Ball recently. It’s fine to be arrogant if you can back it up. Ireland didn’t.
27 Go to comments‘The Irish are good people'. Why is Goode praising a people who hate his own? Wet wipe.
27 Go to commentsLa mejor final que se puede ver en el emisferio norte.
1 Go to commentsA lot of cope from south africans in the comments. Etzebeth is a liar and a hypocrite; you don’t have to defend him!
27 Go to commentsHe got big and really slow for a flyhalf…not sure he’s relevant in a bok conversation anymore
4 Go to commentsBest tourney team vs best team in the regular season for 3 games in RSA - talk is cheap, let’s see what’s what on the tour
27 Go to commentsOne overlooked statistic from their 2016 winning season is the Huricanes are still the only team in Super rugby history not to concede a try during the playoff rounds.
4 Go to commentsThanks for the article, Nick. The Nienaber blitz D does ask a lot of its scrumhalf. I have been watching JGP on D and he often looks like he has mastered what Nienaber asks for better than Faf de Klerk and Cobus Reinach! 🤣 Impressive season by JGP if I must make an understatement.
22 Go to commentsOkay last one. I promise. I think it’s despicable for Andy Goode to suggest that Eben can’t count to 12. To be fair he only had to count to 8 - the number of Irishmen who DIDN’T say that. Less the 3 kiwis of course. 23 - 12 - 3 = 8. See Joe. I can do maffs.
27 Go to commentsCheers, Nick! How do you see the Reds’ Jock Campbell’s play this year? Not as strong a carrier as Andrew Kellaway or Tom Wright, but does avoid errors. Do you see Joe Schmidt as wanting safety first at 15 or a try-assisting counterattacker?
91 Go to commentsI’m sure this was all just a big misunderstanding. Irishmen and Afrikaaners conversing in a noisey stadium. Not easy to get the right messages across. A minefield.
27 Go to commentsSay what you will about Andy Goode. But he is right about one thing… I’m not sure what that one thing is exactly… but I’m willing to hear him out.
27 Go to commentsAnother article to bait and trigger Irish fans. This must stop.
27 Go to comments