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Rugby World Cup

Ireland's No.1 ranking under serious threat this weekend

By Ian Cameron

08 Sep 2023

Ireland's players pose for a group photo at the end of a welcoming ceremony at the Grand Theatre in Tours, on September 2, 2023, ahead of the Rugby World Cup 2023 in France. (Photo by GUILLAUME SOUVANT / AFP/GUILLAUME SOUVANT / AFP) (Photo by GUILLAUME SOUVANT/AFP/GUILLAUME SOUVANT/AFP via Getty Images)

Ireland’s 14-month reign as the No.1 side in the World Rugby ranking is in imminent danger this weekend as the opening matches of the Rugby World Cup get underway in France.

Ireland enters their second consecutive tournament as the top-ranked team in the world. However, this coveted status hangs in the balance, with as many as three different teams eyeing the opportunity to dethrone them from the number one spot.

And with double-ranking points on offer during the Rugby World Cup, there is bound to be massive movement over the coming weeks in what is an already super tight table.

Andy Farrell’s Irish squad currently holds a slim 0.74-point lead over the reigning world champions, South Africa. Nevertheless, their position is precarious, as they won’t be able to enhance their ranking with a victory over the much lower-ranked Romania.

Fixture

Rugby World Cup

France

27 - 13

Full-time

New Zealand

All Stats and Data

The real threat comes from results in New Zealand and South Africa’s first Rugby World Cup matches, with Ireland hoping Scotland and France can do them a favour in their respective games against the southern hemisphere heavyweights.

South Africa stands to gain a maximum of 0.88 points if they beat Scotland by more than 15 points. Such an outcome would catapult them to the top of the rankings, unless New Zealand manages to secure a similar victory against France in the tournament’s opening match on Friday.

Rugby World Cup

Pool A

BP T

BP-7

Total

France

Italy

Namibia

New Zealand

Uruguay

Pool B

BP T

BP-7

Total

Ireland

Romania

Scotland

South Africa

Tonga

Pool C

BP T

BP-7

Total

Australia

Fiji

Georgia

Portugal

Wales

Pool D

BP T

BP-7

Total

Argentina

Chile

England

Japan

Samoa

In this scenario, the All Blacks would leap from fourth to first place with a rating of 93.01 points. It’s noteworthy that New Zealand hasn’t held the top ranking since November 2021.

To reclaim the top spot, host nation France must defeat New Zealand and hope that both Ireland and South Africa fail to win their respective Pool B matches against Romania and Scotland.

For Les Bleus, this ambition can only be achieved if neither Ireland nor South Africa emerges victorious in their contests.

Scotland, on the other hand, has a chance to rise to second place by beating the Springboks by more than 15 points, coupled with an Irish loss and a draw in the match between France and New Zealand.

For Fiji, a win over Wales could potentially elevate them to sixth place if England and Argentina draw. Alternatively, a big victory for Fiji and a smaller win for England over Argentina could also secure sixth place for the Fijians.

Australia and England also have the opportunity to move up three places in the rankings with wins, contingent on favorable scorelines and other match outcomes.

Georgia eyes a historic place in the top 10 if they can defeat Australia in their RWC 2023 opener. Conversely, Australia, currently at their lowest ranking of ninth, faces the risk of dropping out of the top 10 if they suffer a sixth consecutive defeat.

Wales is also at risk of falling out of the top 10 for the first time with a defeat.

Japan’s rating remains stagnant even with a victory over Rugby World Cup debutants Chile due to a significant point difference between the teams. However, a loss would see them slip below Tonga and possibly Portugal if the margin exceeds 15 points.

Chile could potentially enter the top 20 for the first time depending on the margin of victory and the outcome of Italy’s match against Namibia.

Romania and Namibia, as underdogs, have the potential to improve their positions with surprise victories against Six Nations sides Ireland and Italy.

Namibia’s best-case scenario with a first-ever Rugby World Cup victory is a climb of four places, surpassing their previous best ranking of 19th.

Romania’s return to the Rugby World Cup stage could yield an impressive five-place jump if they manage to cause one of the tournament’s biggest upsets.