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How Super Rugby Aotearoa's new golden point rule could backfire
It’s been three long months but Super Rugby finally returns to TV screens this weekend and it sounds like fans will also be rushing along to stadiums to witness the first sports played in front of a live audience since the world was put into lockdown due to coronavirus.
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The Super Rugby Aotearoa competition will see New Zealand’s five franchises butt heads over 10 weeks in what’s effectively a supersized finals series.
Since three rounds of knockout matches were introduced to Super Rugby in 2016, New Zealand have contributed four of the eight finalists every year. This season’s NZ-only competition, brought on due to the global pandemic, trims away the fat and allows fans to really get their money’s worth – there are no dud games, no dead rubbers, no matches that a rugby loving audience won’t be licking their teeth at.
There are also precautions in place so that there are fewer draws – but who knows whether the new golden point changes will even be required.
The new law means that an extra 10 minutes will be played at the end of the regular 80 if two sides are square on points. However, in the 24-and-a-half-years of Super Rugby’s history, we’ve witnessed just seven draws between the New Zealand sides – fewer than one in every three seasons.
On the rare chance that we do see two teams come out level after 80 minutes of action in Super Rugby Aotearoa, is the new golden point method actually the fairest way to determine a winner?
In the NRL, an extra 10 minutes is played at the end of any drawn match to try and separate the competing teams, which is effectively the same rule that the Aotearoa competition will adopt – but there are a few key differences between league and union that arguably make the golden point rule ill-suited for the fifteen man code.
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In league, the team that receives the kick-off is normally able to gobble up some easy metres from the first five phases before punting the ball down the field. In contrast, the team that receives the first kick-off in union has no such luxury.
If we do see the golden point rule in action during Super Rugby, the first kick-off receiver is going to have a torrid time making sure they’re able to send the ball back without putting themselves under too much immediate pressure.
The other major difference between the two codes which compounds the kick-off problem is that penalties are considerably more plentiful in union. In 2020, NRL teams are conceding between 3.3 and 7.8 penalties a game. In the seven rounds of Super Rugby that were played prior to the shutdown, however, teams were conceding between 7.3 and 11.3 penalties per match.
While most league matches decided during golden point time come down to an exciting drop goal attempt that lands on target, you can bet your bottom dollar that Super Rugby sides will try and earn penalties to give themselves a considerably easier means to muster up some points.
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In league, it’s far more difficult to force penalties – you only have the ball for six phases and it’s fairly straightforward for a defending team to not step out of line during those six plays of the ball. It’s a completely different story in union and the first kick-off receiver during that 10-minute period of golden time is going to find themselves under the pump.
RugbyX drew criticism during its inaugural tournament for the unfair tie-breaker rule that saw the team that started with possession for the sudden-death portion of the match-winning every single contest. Let’s hope Super Rugby Aotearoa doesn’t head down the same path.
There’s nothing more exciting than watching a period of sudden death where both sides have a fair shot of stealing victory but there’s nothing worse than tuning in to the dying stages of a contest, knowing who’s likely to take out victory simply due to the unfair initial set-up.
Comments on RugbyPass
I hope Leinster’s proud of themselves fielding a poor team. They should decide if they’re all in or not.
1 Go to commentsJordie is looking at 16 games maximum if Leinster reach both the URC and champions cup finals. Thats not guaranteed. Some of those home URC fixtures will be cakewalks as well for Leinster and there is not much doing during the 6 nations in Feb and March so he can probably get a decent rest then. He will have to really put in it for maybe 7 or 8 games max. It should be a good move for both.
13 Go to commentsThe game was a quarter final, not a semi final. Barrett will be here for 6 months, he is no one's replacement at 13. That mantle will most likely ultimately go to Jamie Osborne, though Garry Ringrose has at least 4 more years in him. The long term problem position (in the next 3 years) for Leinster is tighthead prop, though there are a couple of prospects at schools level.
23 Go to commentsSo much for all that hype surrounding the ‘revival’ of Aussie rugby. The Blues were without the likes of regular starters Perofeta, Sullivan, Christie etc… This was a capitulation of the highest order by Australia’s finest. Joe Schmidt definitely has his work cut out for him.
2 Go to commentsYes they can ignore Sotutu. Like Akira Ioane plays OK at Super level but gets lost in tests. Too many chances too many failures.
2 Go to commentsA wallaby front-row of Bell, Blake and Tupou…now that would be hefty
1 Go to comments“But with an exceptional pass accuracy rating “ Which apart from Roigard is not a feature of any of the other 9s in NZ. Kind of basic for a Black 9 dont.you. think? Yet we keep seeing FC and TJ being rated ahead of him? Weird if it’s seen as vital to get our backline beating in your face defences.
1 Go to commentsThanks BeeMc! Looks like many teams need extra time to settle from the quadrennial northern migration. I think generally the quality of the Rugby has held up. Fiji has been fantastic and fun to watch
13 Go to commentsLets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
13 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
10 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
13 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
6 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
25 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
6 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
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