LONG READ Expectations will not weigh heavily on Tandy’s men, Welsh sides have experienced every circle of hell against the All Blacks

When Michael Holding went to pace out his long run-up, after a spell when he had been coming in off his short run because of injury, the West Indies wicketkeeper Jeffrey Dujon thought the great fast bowler had forgotten something in the dressing room.

Facing the All Blacks?

You get the idea.

For Wales, in particular, it always seems the Kiwis are coming in off a long run.

Some have doubted the quality of New Zealand’s performance against Scotland, and it needs to be noted that their defence wasn’t as watertight as it might have been, with 36 tackles missed.

But once they found themselves, the All Blacks were as ruthless as a taxman who exited his bed on the wrong side. They dashed Murrayfield’s hopes of a historic first Scottish win in the fixture by turning a 24-21 half-time advantage into an emphatic 43-21 full-time score. Invention was mixed with mastery of the basics and an unshakeable conviction that all would be good for the visitors come the final whistle. And it was, as we knew it would be.

Not exactly an ideal challenge right now for a Wales side cemented in the third division of Test rugby, if sections are divided into tiers of four.

A friend out in Australia for the Rugby League World Cup notified a WhatsApp group this writer is a part of to say he’d booked into accommodation run by nuns. Not unpredictably came requests from back home for prayers to be said for Wales this weekend, with one contributor pushing his luck and greedily asking for a miracle to be arranged. The score forecasts had a baseline of 50 points in New Zealand’s favour.

But gloom and doom has been the way for Wales against New Zealand ever since Bleddyn Williams and the boys of ’53 defeated Bob Stuart’s All Blacks, securing the Red Dragons a 3-1 lead in the series. Since then, 34 straight Kiwi wins have turned a once great rivalry into something that might interest the anti-bullying people.

Nor do bookmakers see the sequence ending any time soon, with the tourists 1/80 favourites to win at the weekend. For those who are not completely au fait with betting odds, that’s a probability in the region of the odd firework going off around Bonfire night.

Wales also have some pressing questions to answer after their unconvincing win over Japan. Can Steve Tandy repair a lineout systematically dismantled by Warren Dearns, Harry Hockings and Jack Cornelsen just days ago? Is it possible to conjure some ball-carrying impetus out of the locks and props? What can be done to improve better decision-making and execution at half-back? Can Tandy persuade some of his bench forwards it doesn’t contradict any known rugby laws if they make an impact?

Tandy needs to do something about Welsh forward ball-carrying. Jac Morgan, Aaron Wainwright and Lake commendably did their bit against Japan. The other members of the starting pack? Not so much.

Sorting out the lineout will be a priority, for the Brave Blossoms ransacked Wales’ setpiece, picking off six Welsh throws and leaving the hosts with a 69 percent return on their own ball.

If it didn’t quite appear as if the visitors were jumping against statues, then it did seem the case that Dewi Lake, Ben Carter, Daf Jenkins and the Welsh lifters weren’t exactly on the same page when it came to the not unimportant matter of securing their own possession. In short, it was all a bit shambolic.

You wondered if Taine Plumtree, a lineout operator of some renown, and the 6ft 8in Adam Beard could have improved matters had they been named on the bench.

Tandy also needs to do something about Welsh forward ball-carrying. Jac Morgan, Aaron Wainwright and Lake commendably did their bit against Japan. The other members of the starting pack? Not so much. Indeed, the five totalled just five metres between them with ball in hand.

As for those charged with galvanising Wales from the bench, there were just eight carries from the five forward replacements, a handful of those from Ryan Elias, who made seven metres, with the rest aggregating just two metres.

Wales won just 38 percent of the possession; their ball retention was poor and they were forced to make 227 tackles. Any Welsh back turning up expecting five-star service would have been disappointed, with no-one coming close to offering to take coats and saying: “Would sir care to peruse our extensive wine list, or may I walk him through the chef’s daily features, with particular attention to the filet mignon?”

Instead, those behind the home scrum had to make do.

It made life particularly challenging for the half-backs, but they could still have done better. Sam Costelow may have woken up on Sunday morning thinking he’d have done things differently if he had his early Saturday evening over again, with the ball kicked away from promising attacking positions at least twice.

Can either Costelow or Dan Edwards emerge as the undisputed number one in the No. 10 position before the season is out? Or will the talented young Scarlet Carwyn Leggatt-Jones take a great leap forward and inherit the throne occupied by so many luminaries in days gone by?

There are silver linings for Tandy. Blair Murray, Louis Rees-Zammit and Josh Adams formed a sharp back three against Japan, with Murray and Rees-Zammit beating 23 defenders between them.

Or will the Wales selectors opt for a (not especially advisable) policy of chopping and changing – ‘it’s the 45th Saturday of the year, so it must be Dan’s turn’?

Let’s hope it’s not the latter.

Some feel right now, ahead of the All Blacks game, fly-half isn’t the main issue, anyway. “After watching both Wales and New Zealand play on the weekend, I don’t think it really matters who gets picked at 10,” offered a contributor to a BBC online debate about who should feature at fly-half for Wales this Saturday. “Sam? Dan? The woman who runs the post office? The end result will be the same.”

Optimism, then, isn’t exactly all the rage in Wales ahead of the visit of the Kiwis.

That said, there is the odd silver lining for Tandy to cling onto. Blair Murray, Louis Rees-Zammit and Josh Adams formed a sharp back three against Japan, with Murray and Rees-Zammit beating 23 defenders between them.

“I am just playing with a smile on my face, playing with confidence and always thinking that I can beat defenders, and in defence I feel really good as well,” said Rees-Zammit later. Welsh supporters will hope such admirable self-assurance survives an encounter with New Zealand.

There was a fair bit to like about Eddie James’ effort against Japan, too, if not the offload late on that ended up in Japanese hands and paved the way for the visitors to claim the final try that ensured a nervy end to the match for Wales.

But James still finished significantly in credit with his power and presence in midfield. Wales have been searching for a centre to build their three-quarter line around; in James they have found one.

Wales need more of that resilience against New Zealand, with the All Blacks boasting a 58 percent red-zone efficiency against Scotland. For the avoidance of doubt, that’s pretty clinical.

Others who emerged with their reputations intact included Morgan and Wainwright. A nod, too, to Nicky Smith, Lake and Adams, who all claimed vital turnovers a metre or two from Wales’ line. Had Japan converted just one of those attacks, the hosts might not have had a victory to celebrate.

Wales will need more of that resilience against New Zealand, with the All Blacks boasting a 58 percent red-zone efficiency against Scotland. For the avoidance of doubt, that’s pretty clinical. The Scots were operating at 30 percent in the kill-zone, while Wales converted on four of the 10 occasions they entered Japan’s 22 – not the worst effort, but the best sides are significantly ahead.

Expectations will not weigh heavily on Tandy’s men, then, in their penultimate Nations Championship pool game. Better Welsh sides than this one have stopped off at pretty much every circle of hell against the All Blacks.

If Dewi Lake and Co can stop this Kiwi team running away with matters, that would at least be something.

But easy that challenge won’t be.