Significant step up in rankings possible for England and Italy

England will move into the top band of seedings for Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027 if they can start the Six Nations with a bang and beat Ireland in Dublin this Saturday.

Steve Borthwick’s team goes into the championship ranked seventh, which would place them in the second band of seeds as things stand when the draw for RWC 2027 takes place on a yet-to-be-announced date between the end of the November internationals and the start of the 2026 Six Nations.

The world’s top six ranked nations will be placed in the top band and, therefore, on paper at least, receive a more favourable draw. England will fall into that category at the end of this weekend if they can manage to win at the Aviva Stadium.

Fifth place in the rankings will be theirs for the taking if they win by more than 15 points – something they have achieved only once at Ireland’s citadel in the Six Nations era. England’s last win in Dubin, full stop, was back in 2019.

If Ireland fail to beat England at the Aviva Stadium they will be replaced in second place in the rankings by New Zealand. A heavy defeat will result in them falling to fourth, unless France slip up at home to Wales, in which case they would drop to third.

A home win for Ireland would not have any impact on their ranking or rating score, meaning South Africa’s two-point advantage at the top of the rankings is safe regardless of what happens in the northern hemisphere this weekend.

Away wins have been a thing in the opening round of the last two Six Nations championships, with the visitors winning all six matches. The odds are stacked against that trend continuing, but Italy will be going all out to beat Scotland at Murrayfield for the first time since 2015 as they look to build on their most successful championship campaign last year.

The Azzurri will leapfrog Fiji and move into ninth with victory but another place is theirs for the taking if they repeat the scoreline from their 2007 win in Edinburgh (37-17). A win by more than 15 points would move Italy up from 10th to eighth, equalling their highest-ever ranking, and it would also put them above Scotland, who would drop to ninth.

Scotland can only gain a maximum of 0.35 rating for beating 10th-ranked Italy at Murrayfield, so cannot improve on sixth, while Wales are in the same boat even if they pull off one of the biggest shocks in recent Six Nations history and do a number on France in the tournament’s opening game at Stade de France on Friday night.

The good news for Wales fans nervous about their side dropping out of the top two bands of seeds (seventh to 12th) is that a defeat in Paris wouldn’t lead to them slipping any further down the rankings. By the same token, a win over Les Bleus won’t see them restored to the world’s top 10 as they have too much ground to make up even with as many as three rating points up for grabs.

This weekend’s four Rugby Europe Championship matches all count towards the rankings but like the Celtic trio of Ireland, Scotland and Wales, none of the fancied home teams – Georgia, Portugal, Spain and Romania – can improve their position as they are playing much lower-ranked opposition in the form of tournament newcomers Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany, respectively.

However, there are gains possible for all of their opponents if they can cause an upset, notably Switzerland who would jump to a record high of 25th if they beat defending champions Georgia on their Rugby Europe Championship debut.

The Netherlands stand to gain two places if they can convert last year’s near-miss against Spain into a victory, while a win for Germany away to Romania would result in them climbing back into the world’s top 30. Defeat for Romania will see them slip out of the top 20 for the first time in the history of the rankings.