STATS: Could climate change ruin the All Blacks?
With the Lions gathering pace in New Zealand, fans at home and down south are observing a trend in their ability to win. All three of their triumphs so far have come under wet conditions.
One of the series’ major talking points has been the clash between styles from the northern and southern hemispheres. How heavily has the winter weather weighed in on the results thus far, and could any trends be affected by a changing climate?
Taking recent games in New Zealand as our sample, we can clearly see trends linking the weather to the style of play. On average, when playing in the rain, the Lions have run an average of 129 metres more than their opponents.
I don't see @lionsofficial beating the All Blacks but if the Tests are wet/slippery & they control the game like tonight it could be close ?
— Cory Jane (@CoryJane1080) June 17, 2017
Less than half of those metres however, have come from backline play. In the most recent game against the Maori All Blacks 43% of metres made were by ball carrying forwards, with another 26% from kick returning, leaving only 31% of attacking metres attributable to ball played across the backline.
This breakdown of attacking statistics is symptomatic of the northern style the Lions are bringing to New Zealand, and has lead to the astonishing territory numbers clocked up in recent games. Warren Gatland’s men have dominated the set piece and used the resulting platform to camp in opposition 22’s.
In theory, this territory limits the ability of southern teams to utilise the speed and flair that has ravaged northern teams in the past. Limited space and a greasy ball put pressure on the the skills advantage southern teams possess. We’ve seen the Lions employ this tactic to good effect thus far, allowing only 5 offloads per game in the wet, versus 11.5 in fairer weather.
So, what if there was something that could change the weather and turn the tide in the favour of a northern hemisphere style of rugby? That’s where global warming comes in. In keeping with New Zealand as our example, we can see a possible change in rugby as well as the climate.
Are we destined for glory???!! @lionsofficial pic.twitter.com/PWBS6K0VxC
— Will Greenwood (@WillGreenwood) June 17, 2017
According to the New Zealand government, current predictions of the effects of global warming see rainfall rising by up to 20% in some areas. If rugby down under got 20% wetter, even the mighty All Blacks would be forced to alter their game to what would currently be considered a more northern style.
In this eventuality, the northern teams would be able to play their own game. Much like the Lions have done. Helped by the rain they’ve been able to limit free play, and when they have over 100 attacking rucks, they win every game. The more rucks we see, the more time the ball spends on the ground, and the less time it can spend in the hands of skillful All Blacks.
These All Blacks could always opt to play their home games at Forsyth Barr Stadium in Dunedin. The indoor pitch never sees rain, temperatures can be adjusted by up to 5 degrees, and the grass is always cut to a 45mm height under foot. A scientifically designed home for free flowing rugby, where we saw 558 metres made by backline running, the most so far in the Lions tour.
This precisely adjusted environment saw the Highlanders down the Lions, and is the only such stadium in the southern hemisphere. Weather-proof stadia are equally as unusual in European rugby, with only the retractable roof of the Principality Stadium in Cardiff providing relief from rain.
Construction for the Forsyth Barr stood at $193,000,000 NZD, with the Principality weighing in at £120,000,000. With rugby continually becoming more and more lucrative business, for a cost, stadia such as these would allow teams to play god with conditions, and adapt them to their own tactics regardless of changes in the weather.
Of course, none of these changes happen overnight, and the All Blacks and all other teams would have plenty of time to adapt and stay ahead, as they always have. With 7 of the 8 names on the World Cup trophy being southern hemisphere teams, their dominance is clearly no accident.
That being said, global warming is set to bring with it conditions we’ve seen can force statistical changes the southern teams wouldn’t otherwise have to make. It could never kill a team, but it could eliminate the effect of one style, and amplify the effect of another. A change in climate would rain on the playing field, and move towards leveling it.
Comments on RugbyPass
The Chiefs definitely didn’t win ugly. They had the superior scrum, a dominant lineout, and their defence was excellent once the Waratahs scored their two tries (thanks to some lucky refereeing calls mind you). They put pressure on the Waratahs lineout throughout the game, and the mind boggles as to why the referee did not award a yellow card or a penalty try against the Waratahs for repeated scrum infringements on their own try line before Narawa’s first try. And the Chiefs were slick with their passing and running angles on attack. It was a dominant performance all round, even with many questionable refereeing decisions.
1 Go to commentsWasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
3 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
3 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
3 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
30 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
3 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
3 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
30 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
30 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
30 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to comments