The Breakdown: A statistical look at Saturday's rugby internationals
It’s that time of year again, when the giants of Southern Hemisphere rugby head north to take on Europe’s finest.
The All Blacks kick off their tour in France, while Australia head to Cardiff to take on a Wales side who have a historically dismal record against the Wallabies.
Ireland lock horns with South Africa for the first time since their closely fought 2016 series, and England and Scotland take on Argentina and Samoa respectively.
With the help of Opta, we take a statistical look at Saturday’s feast of international rugby.
England v Argentina
The Pumas head to Twickenham for the 23rd meeting between these sides hoping for a first win in the fixture since 2006.
Promisingly for England, no team has averaged more points per game against Argentina (36) since the 2011 Rugby World Cup and they have won 10 consecutive matches at HQ since losing to Wales and Australia during the 2015 RWC.
Eddie Jones will be looking to winger Semesa Rokodoguni to carry his club form into the November internationals – the Bath man, who will be on the bench at Twickenham, has seven tries to his name in the Premiership this season and is one of only six players to make more than 500 metres with ball in hand.
France v New Zealand
Only South Africa (37 per cent) and Australia (26 per cent) have a better win rate versus the All Blacks than France (21 per cent), but New Zealand are on a 10-match winning run against Les Bleus.
France have not beaten New Zealand in Paris since 1973, while the All Blacks are out to avoid back-to-back defeats for the first time since August 2011, having lost to Australia in their final Bledisloe Cup fixture.
The visitors could bring up a significant milestone in the French capital – they are just three short of becoming the first team in Test history to score 2,000 tries.
Ireland v South Africa
Saturday’s clash in Dublin promises to be a tight encounter after the last three meetings – all during Ireland’s 2016 tour of South Africa – were decided by exactly six points.
Ireland have lost just two of 18 matches at the Aviva Stadium since the start of 2014 and they have won four of their last six home clashes with the Springboks.
South Africa, meanwhile, have a poor recent record on the road, having won only one of their last nine away fixtures.
Scotland v Samoa
Victory over Samoa would see Scotland achieve their best winning run at Murrayfield since 1991, having won each of their last four matches in Edinburgh.
Samoa are on their longest losing run (four matches) since 1981 but are aiming to become the 25th team to record 100 Test victories.
Finn Russell’s form in the Pro14 suggests he will have a big role to play for Scotland over the coming month. The fly-half has missed just one of 21 kicks with Glasgow Warriors – the best conversion rate in the competition.
110 – No player has won as many caps for @Scotlandteam as Ross Ford (110), who is the third most capped hooker in Test history. Sidelined. pic.twitter.com/mZ46DeTjeC
— OptaJonny (@OptaJonny) November 6, 2017
Wales v Australia
Wales have beaten the Wallabies on just two occasions in the last 30 years but 10 of Australia’s last 11 victories in the fixture have come by single-figure margins.
Michael Cheika’s men are on their best winning streak (six matches) since the seven-game run that was halted by New Zealand in the World Cup final, although they posted both the worst goal-kicking (75 per cent) and lineout (88 per cent) success rates in the Rugby Championship.
Dan Biggar will join an exclusive club of Welshmen to have made 50 international starts at fly-half – only Neil Jenkins and Stephen Jones have previously achieved the feat.
Comments on RugbyPass
Sorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
1 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to commentsSimple reason for wanting him back. Robertson wants him as captain. Otherwise he wouldn’t be bothering chasing him. Not enough reason to come back just to mentor.
10 Go to commentsI had not considered this topic like this at all, brilliant read. I had been looking at his record at the Waratahs and thought it odd the Crusaders appointed him, then couple that with all that experience and talent departing and boom. They’ve got some great talent developing though, and in all honesty I don’t think anyone would be over confident taking them on in a playoff match, no matter how poor the first half of their season was. I think they can pull a game out of their ass when it counts.
2 Go to commentsNot a bad list but not Porecki and not Donaldson. Not because they are Tahs, or Ex Tahs, they are just not good enough. Edmed should be ahead. Far more potential. Wilson should be 8 and Valentini 6. Wilson needs to be told by his father and his coach, stop bloody running in to brick wall defence. You’re not playing under the genius Thorn any more. He’s a fantastic angle runner. The young new 8 from the Brumbies looks really good too. The Lonegrans are just too small for international rugby as is Paisami, as is Hamish Stewart at 12. Both great at Super Rugby level. Stewart could have been a great 10 if not for Brad Thorn. Uru should be there and so should Tupou. Tupou just needs good Australian coaching which he hasn’t been getting. I don’t think Schmidt will excite him.
2 Go to commentsIf he wants to come back then he should. He will be a major asset to the younger locks and could easily be played as an impact player off the bench coming on in the last 30. He is fit, strong and capable and has all the experience to make up for any loss in physical prowess. He could also be brought back with a view to coaching within the structures one day. Duane Vermeulen played until he was 37 or 38. He is now a roaming coach within the South African coaching structures. He was valuable in the last world cup and has been a major influence on Jasper Wiese and other young players which has helped and accelerated their development and growth. Whitelock could do the exact same thing for NZ
10 Go to commentsBrett Excellent words… finally someone (other than DC) has noted that Hanigan is very hard and very good at doing what Backrow should do… his performance via the Drua sauna was quite daunting for those on the other side… very high tackle count… carries with good end result… constant threat to make a good 20-25 meters with those long legs… providing his mass effectively to crunching the Drua pack… Finally he is returning to quality form… way to much injury time over the last 2 years… smart-strong-competent in his skills… caught every lineout throw aimed at him and delivered clean pass to whoever was down below… and he worked hard for the whole 80 minutes… Ned has to be in the top 5 for backrow honors… He knows what is required as he has been there before…
20 Go to commentsI think Sam Whitelock should not touch a return with a bargepole. He went out on a high, playing in the RWC Final. He would be coming back into a team that will be weaker than last years, and might even be struggling to win games, especially against the Boks. Stay in France, enjoy another year with Pau, playing alongside his brother.
10 Go to commentsRyan Coxon has been very impressive considering he was signed by WF as injury cover whilst Uru has been a standout for QR, surprised neither of those mentioned
2 Go to commentsIt’s the massive value he brings with regard team culture/values, preparation, etc. Can’t buy that. I’m hoping to see the young locks get their chance in the big games though.
10 Go to commentsAll good, Gregor, except that you neglected to mention Sam Darry amongst that talented pool of locks. In fact, given Hannah’s inexperience and the fact that Holland won’t be eligible until next year, Lord and Darry might be the frontrunners this year, to join Barrett, Tuipoluto, Va’ii and possibly Whitelock. In fact there might be room for all of them if Barrett played 6 (like Ollie Chessum).
10 Go to commentsHis value is stabilizing the ship 20 - 40 minutes out from the final whistle plus his valuable experience to the underlings coming through.
10 Go to commentsWhat is criminal is she acts like it's no problem her actions have have cause the Italian player to lose her playing career, lose salary, if she did this in day to day life she would be in jail, she is a complete thug!!!
3 Go to commentsCorrect me if i’m wrong but the sadas have to win all games running into the finals yeh nah?
1 Go to commentsDon’t like Diamond but the maul is a joke, the sight of a choke tackle creating a maul then players in offside positions flopping on it killing the ball but then getting the put in? Banal.
3 Go to commentsHopefully Tabai Matson returns to Crusaders as head coach next season.
1 Go to commentsstorm in a teacup really. Penalty only so play on as the try was scored. Now the real question is: why was Maitland allowed to pass the ball off the floor? That is illegal but refs never pick it up.
1 Go to commentsWhen Beauden Barrett signed his contract before the 2023 RWC to play in Japan in 2024, it was NOT part of a sabbatical agreed to with NZRU prior to his signing, as was Ardie Savea and Sam Cane. Barrett changed his mind after the fact and negotiated his return to NZ Rugby and he was given permission to be eligible for All Black selection straight away once he signed a new contract to return to the Blues in 2025. Therefore, why would anyone argue against Whitelock returning to the All Blacks straight away after his season is France is finished if he signs a new contract with NZRU which includes a Super Rugby contract in 2025? If Barrett can, Whitelock should be allowed too.
10 Go to commentsThe All Blacks will select 5 locks this season. Scott Robertson will most likely want to select 2 veteran locks who can start right away in 2024 and 3 young promising locks who he would like to be pushing hard for selection in the starting XV in two years time- 2026. Scott Barrett is a world class lock. Who would you rather start beside him this season against England, South Africa, Ireland, and France- Sam Whitelock or Patrick Tuipulotu? I would choose Whitelock over Tuipulotu all day, every day.
10 Go to comments