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The All Blacks now have to knock over South Africa at home to win public over
By Ben Smith
The All Blacks finished 2025 with 10 wins and three losses, on paper a stellar showing, but the second season under Razor hasn’t impressed as much as the headline record suggests.
The nature of the 3-0 series win over France left a lot to be desired, with a second-string French outfit expected to be put away comfortably. Only the second Test in Wellington delivered that. The first and third Tests were a struggle, with the opener in Dunedin too close for comfort.
The Rugby Championship started with a resounding 41-24 win over Argentina, with the All Blacks finally putting together a decent final quarter to take control of the game following a fightback by the Pumas.
But the good work from that win was thrown out the window with a concerning 29-23 defeat the next week. Had the All Blacks not coughed up that result, they would have claimed the Rugby Championship title for the first time under Robertson.
The highlight of the year was the All Blacks’ 24-17 win over the Springboks at Eden Park, a masterclass performance from the pack to dismantle the Bok lineout.
Two quick strikes from lineout plays, one to Emoni Narawa and another to Will Jordan put South Africa in a hole early, from which they could not recover. A big blow from Quinn Tupaea in the second half to extend the lead to 24-10 proved to be decisive.
This was the biggest result in the Robertson era so far to show they are capable of winning the World Cup. The pressure leading into the game was enormous, and they delivered, tactically and physically, to completely outplay their opponent.
But that game was also a turning point for the Springboks. They axed a number of trusted veterans, Handre Pollard and Willie le Roux, who no longer could do the job. That was also the end for halfback Grant Williams as a starter, who was harassed to no end and capitulated at the ruck.
The new-look, new-age Springboks team that re-birthed following the Eden Park loss is far more dangerous. Better playmakers across the spine, Cobus Reinach, Sacha Feingberg-Mngomezulu, and Damian Willemse, combined with athletes like Canan Moodie and Cheslin Kolbe, turned the Boks into a much better attacking team.
For the All Blacks, the return Wellington Test was a catastrophic failure of game management and strategic planning.
There seemed to be no recognition or aptitude for the situation. The All Blacks had built a position of strength in the Rugby Championship, atop the ladder. The Springboks, with two losses already, were ‘backs against the wall’.
After a defensive game plan that worked the week before, aerial pressure through the box kick, lineout pressure, and strike plays in the right area of the field, they threw that plan away.
The All Blacks came to Wellington wanting to play a wide-wide pattern, tramline to tramline, counter attack off every turnover regardless of advantage or not, from anywhere on the field, even from inside their own in-goal. They ended up handing South Africa advantageous field position and possession over and over again.
While the first half produced one of the finest tries in recent times to debutant Leroy Carter, the high-risk plan played into the Springboks’ hands. As frustrations on attack grew, decision-making became poorer and poorer from the game drivers.
Having not won the title yet under Robertson, needing this result to seal it, it baffles belief that Robertson and coaches wanted to expand the playbook and gamble away the Championship on a high-risk game plan that had not been trialled yet. Perhaps against the French B side would have been more appropriate? In a meaningless July series?
As a result of that gamble, Robertson was left trophy-less again, costing the All Blacks redemption after two losses in the Republic last year. That was not Championship rugby, and that will not win Rugby World Cup knockout games. Hopefully, the lesson is learned.
After losing to England in the Autumn, the All Blacks haven’t shown a lot of promise against the other top five nations, other than against Ireland, whom they’ve comprehensively beaten twice.
Next year’s tour of South Africa shapes as the World Cup kickstarter after the Rugby Championship drought. To beat the Springboks at home in a series would propel the All Blacks to World Cup favouritism whilst popping the green-and-yellow bubble.
With the first and third Tests of the tour in Johannesburg, at Ellis Park and then FNB Stadium, this is entirely possible. At altitude, the All Blacks have played well recently, winning 35-23 in 2022 and leading 27-17 in 2024 before a late-game collapse ended with a 31-27 loss.
The trump card for Robertson is halfback Cam Roigard, who has become the primary playmaker in the halves for the All Blacks.
Roigard has not played the Springboks since his 20-minute cameo at Twickenham in a warm-up fixture in 2023. All he did was rip the Boks for a 60 metre try, beating four of them single-handedly to prevent the All Blacks from being nilled.
He was not picked for the 2023 Rugby World Cup final, and injuries have prevented him from playing South Africa over 2024 and 2025.
He is the All Blacks’ number one halfback and the dynamic creator in the backline. And he truly can be a difference maker on this tour. Roigard has to remain healthy in 2026. A Roigard-McKenzie partnership at 9 and 10 can deliver a series win.
The All Blacks under Robertson have not convinced the New Zealand public yet after the 2025 season, and the only way to do that now, before 2027, is to knock off South Africa at home.
It is the ideal situation. This is what NZR traded the Rugby Championship for, after all.
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