A victory over the hosts will ensure that Scotland's World Cup won't be remembered for Ireland loss
Following Scotland’s opening loss to Ireland, the world was quick to criticise the Scottish side for their subdued performance against their big brothers.
It was a poor showing from Gregor Townsend’s men – there’s no question about it. To go down almost without firing a shot against a side that the coaching staff would have had endless intelligence on, whilst fielding the most experienced Scottish team in World Cup history, was a blunder and half.
Yet, there’s still plenty of time for Scotland to right their wrongs in this year’s tournament.
World Cup campaigns aren’t remembered for how they start, they’re remembered for how they finish.
Hark back to 2011 and France were entirely underwhelming in the pool stages of the competition.
Continued below…
They recorded comfortable wins over Japan and Canada but were thumped by hosts New Zealand. The wheels came off a week later when France were bested by Tonga, 19-14.
Were it not for the fact that Tonga had suffered their own hiccup, losing to Canada 25-20, then France would not have even made it out of the group stages of the tournament.
France did make it out, however, and went on to face the home nation in the final. They lost that match, but many felt they were dealt the short straw in a number of refereeing decisions throughout the game.
In fact, that’s one of the lasting memories of the 2011 World Cup: France were probably incredibly unlucky not to win it.
Which just goes to show that what happens in the pool stages of the tournament barely registers as a blip on most people’s radar when looking back.
The exception, of course, is when your tournament both begins and ends poorly; when you’re expected to make the knockout stages but get bundled out early.
England’s 2015 campaign was an absolute disaster for that very reason.
But 2019 doesn’t need to be that way for Scotland, there’s still plenty of time to stop the rot.
Yes, many would have expected the Scots to put up more of a fight against Ireland, but few would have actually expected the boys in blue to come out on top.
Scotland were always going to be fighting tooth and nail for a spot in the finals, and the primary discussion was always going to centre around whether or not Japan could pull a surprise out of the hat.
The Kiwi-born wing has held himself accountable for an error which could have come back to haunt the Scots. #RWC2019 https://t.co/B8oSxdHzgP
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) September 30, 2019
Japan have already done that, of course, by putting on a sublime display to down Ireland 19-12 in Shizuoka, recording their first-ever victory over the men from the Emerald Isle.
Regardless of that result, it’s looking increasingly likely that the final game of Pool A, between Japan and Scotland, will decide who earns a spot taking on either South Africa or New Zealand in the quarterfinals.
Again, though, that was always likely to be the case – but that doesn’t mean it was going to be an easy road for Scotland.
Much of the discourse in the build up to this World Cup has focussed on the improving tier two teams: the Pacific Island sides, Japan, the USA and Georgia have all made significant gains in recent times thanks to the increased number of full-time professionals in their squads.
Russia may not have been expected to fire a shot in 2019, but neither Japan nor Samoa were ever going to roll over without a fight.
Scotland have already dealt to Samoa, earning a late try-scoring bonus point in their 34-nil win. It may not have been the best performance from the Scots, but it was still a comprehensive victory.
https://www.instagram.com/p/B3CP8-WAPZS/
Japan are a good side who have had the wood over Samoa in the last few years, but their biggest win over the Islanders to date ended 26-5 in 2015 – which is still a way off Scotland’s performance from earlier this week.
Japan have turned out good performances in the past (see their 2015 win over South Africa if you need any inspiration), but do they have the consistency of the higher ranked teams just yet? A win over Samoa, who have won 11 of the 15 matches between the two nations, is not a given.
Even if Japan thrash Samoa, they’ll still need to clock up at least one competition point against Scotland to take out second in the pool, which is no sure thing; it’s a feat they’ve managed just once before.
'I think it’s important we do that. We talk about being a really tight-knit group and that’s part of that.'https://t.co/F6nm7KHO06
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 1, 2019
Should Scotland find themselves on top of the Brave Blossoms come the end of the pool stages then they’ll be tasked with dispatching New Zealand in the quarterfinals. Only a few passionate Scots would fancy Scotland’s chances in that game, which likely means that the Dark Blues are heading for their seventh quarterfinal exit in nine tournaments.
Whilst a loss to the All Blacks in the knockout stages won’t be especially appreciated by Scottish fans, it’s a fate they would have anticipated heading into the World Cup.
If Scotland take out Japan in the pool stages, then 2019 will be looked back on as the tournament where they eliminated the hosts – a nation that had already bested Ireland – and fell in the quarterfinals to the best side on the world.
That’s not a terrible outcome for Scotland – and their fate is still completely in their own hands.
Gregor Townsend was optimistic after his side crushed Samoa 34-0:
Comments on RugbyPass
What a dagg in more ways than one
5 Go to commentsRegroup come back next year but sack some of the coaching team and don't be like the ABs last minute sacking. If Crusaders don't do well ABs don't do well.
5 Go to commentsProctor Definitely inform again this year had a hell of a season last year and this year is looking even better. Still mixed feelings about Ioane tho.
4 Go to commentsDagg is still trying to get enough headlines to make himself relevant enough to get a job. The Crusaders went back to square one at all levels. Shelve this season and nail the next one.
5 Go to commentsHe was in such great form. Sad for him but only a short term injury and it will be great to see him back for the finals.
1 Go to commentsAfter their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
5 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
3 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
4 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
3 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
38 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to comments