How the final act of the 2017 Six Nations could change the 2019 World Cup
The Irish should be cheering on the French this weekend. More weirdly, and depending on what happens in Paris, Welsh rugby fans may actually WANT England to win the Grand Slam. Here’s why…
The Six Nations championship – and the destination of the wooden spoon – may have been decided a week early, but this final round of matches is no dead rubber.
What happens in Edinburgh, Paris and Dublin this weekend could shape events in Kyoto, Japan, on May 10, as international rugby’s very own, very specific chaos butterfly flaps its wings for the final time before the draw for the 2019 World Cup takes place.
Similar to its more commonly known chaos theory cousin, the hurricane butterfly, what lepidoptera rugbychaotica does this weekend in those three European cities could have a big effect on the other side of the world in several weeks’ time.
Thanks to their top-three pool finishes in the 2015 World Cup, all the Six Nations and Rugby Championship sides, as well as Japan and Georgia, are included in the draw. Fiji, currently ranked 10th have yet to qualify.
The 12 sides will be split into three groups of four based on World Rugby’s rankings on May 10, which will not change from the rankings decided, following this weekend’s matches. Using current standings, the 12 confirmed teams at Japan 2019 breakdown as follows:
Draw Tier 1: New Zealand, England, Australia, Ireland
Draw Tier 2: Scotland, Wales, South Africa, France
Draw Tier 3: Argentina, Japan, Georgia, Italy
Two further tiers for teams yet to qualify from their tournaments will be included in the draw.
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Tier 1 teams will be drawn first into four separate pools. Those four pools will be filled in turn by teams drawn from tier 2, then tier 3, and so on.
France and Wales meet in a match that could have the biggest impact on the all-important rankings. Rob Howley’s Wales will take Ireland’s top-four place – and their tier 1 slot – if they win in Paris and England complete the first-ever back-to-back Grand Slam in the 17-year history of the Six Nations in Dublin.
Meanwhile, if France loses by 15 points or more, they will drop one crucial place to ninth in World Rugby’s rankings, surrendering their tier 2 slot to Argentina, and becoming all the more likely to be drawn in an impossible pool.
meanwhile, things may be looking good for Scotland, despite last week’s shellacking by England, as Vern Cotter prepares to hand over the keys to the head coach’s office to Gregor Townsend. Stern Vern’s final match in charge is at home against Italy, and it has all the hallmarks of a big farewell party to the man who has restored a fair portion of Scottish pride to the rugby rank and file.
Ranking points are calculated using a formula based on opposing teams’ current standings. As a result, Scotland, currently basking in their best World Rugby ranking of fifth, stand to gain no points no matter how well they beat 15th-placed Italy. Even if they lose a close game, they will remain in the top eight – which would mean they would be included in the second tier of teams in May’s big draw. But, should the unthinkable happen and Italy win by 15 points or more, Scotland will drop to ninth. That would put them in the third tier for the draw.
And, as you have no doubt worked out, if Wales win in Paris, Ireland have to win in Dublin to preserve their top four, top-tier status.
All of which means that Irish fans, despite their shared Celtic bond with Wales, should probably support France in Paris. Of course, if Wales win, anyone heading into Cardiff city centre later one, could witness the strange sight and sound of Welsh rugby fans cheering and chanting – maybe even singing! – for England in the final match of ‘Super Saturday’.
Such is the effect of international rugby’s chaos butterfly.
Comments on RugbyPass
It was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
53 Go to commentsBrayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
5 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to commentsOf the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.
29 Go to commentsIrish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
5 Go to commentsI certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
1 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
1 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to commentsJust such a genuine good bloke…and probably the best all round player in his generation. Good guys do come first sometimes and he handled the W.Cup loss with great attitude.
2 Go to commentsWord in France is that he’s on the radar of a few Top14 clubs.
5 Go to commentsGet blocking Travis, this guy has styles and he’s gonna make a swift impact…!
1 Go to commentsWhat remorse? She claimed that her dangerous tackle wasn’t worthy of a red! She should be compensating the injured player for loss of earnings at the minimum. Her ban should include the recovery time of the injured player as well as the paltry 3 match ban.
5 Go to commentsArdie is a legend. Finished and klaar. Two things: “Yeah, yeah, I have had a few conversations with Razor just around feedback on my game and what I am doing well, what I need to improve on or work-ons. It’s kind of been minimal, mate, but it’s all that I need over here in terms of how to be better, how to get better and what I am doing well.” I hope he’s downplaying it - and that it’s not that “minimal”. The amount of communication and behind the scenes preparation the Bok coaches put into players - Rassie and co would be all over Ardie and being clear on what is expected of him. This stands out for me as something teams should really be looking at in terms of the boks success from a coaching point of view. And was surprised by the comment - “minimal”. In terms of the “debate” around Ireland and South Africa. Nice one Ardie. Indeed. There’s no debate.
2 Go to commentsThere’s a bit of depth there but realistically Australian players have a long way to go to now catch up. The game is moving on fast and Australia are falling behind. Australian sides still don’t priories the breakdown like they should, it’s a non-negotiable if you want to compete on the international stage. That goes for forwards and backs. The Australian team could have a back row that could make a difference but the problem is they don’t have a tight five that can do the business. Tupou is limited in defence, overweight and unfit and the locks are a long way from international standard. Frost is soft and Salakai-Loto is too small so that means they need a Valentini at 8 who has to do the hard graft so limits the effectiveness of the backrow. Schmidt really needs to get a hard working, tough tight 5 if he wants to get this team firing.
3 Go to commentsSorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to comments