LONG READ 'The All Blacks have been surpassed by South Africa, Ireland and even France as the game’s dominant force'

Since the world rankings system came into effect, it hasn’t always proven to be an accurate gauge to assess the game’s true pecking order.

The system is widely recognised to be imperfect, but few would argue that the current positioning of South Africa at number one and Ireland at number two is anything other than a perfect reflection of the world game’s power base.

When these two clashed in July, it was apparent they were playing at a different level. There was an intensity to their two-test series that was not replicated anywhere else.

The collisions were brutal, the speed was relentless and the accuracy from both teams was consistently high.

At the same time these two cataclysmic tests played out, England and the All Blacks were involved in their own compelling mini-series, which was certainly intense and willing, but never managed to reach the same heights as the rugby that was being played in the Republic.

And this is the cold truth that the All Blacks must confront now on the eve of their successive Rugby Championship tests against South Africa.

The All Blacks, after dominating the world game between 2010 and 2019, have been surpassed by South Africa, Ireland and maybe even France as the game’s dominant rugby force.

Much has been made of how far and how hard the All Blacks have fallen in the last four years, but the hyperbolic conclusions that an empire has collapsed, or an aura has been lost don’t accurately surmise what’s happened.

The truth is much less dramatic, but no less significant. The All Blacks have lost their ability to outthink the rest of the world and to keep evolving and growing their game to stay ahead of the chasing pack.

They have become followers and copiers when once they were the great innovators and trend-setters.

The hallmark of their success between 2010 and 2019 was that they could, almost without fail, deliver a quality of performance no matter the opposition, stage of the season or climactic conditions and hence, in that period, they won 87 per cent of their tests.

While South Africa’s win ratio was 65 per cent – lower than the All Blacks’ – theirs was bolstered by a series win against the British and Irish Lions and a successive World Cup title.

Their record in that period was insane, head and shoulders ahead of every other country and a testament to their standards and ability to get the best out of themselves and keep finding ways to tweak the way they played.

But between 2020 and 2023, the win ratio dropped to 70 per cent. There were mitigating factors to explain it to some extent – the impact of Covid in reshaping Super Rugby to a trans-Pacific competition and the financial pressures squeezing their talent identification and development programmes left New Zealand’s elite players of all ages under-exposed to the rest of the world.

The net result was that they lost their right to be considered the smartest and most adaptive rugby nation on the planet, something borne out by the fact that for the first time in the professional age, the All Blacks didn’t produce the most dominant win ratio in the last World Cup cycle.

Ireland and France who both won 80 per cent of their tests in that period were the two most dominant teams and while South Africa’s win ratio was 65 per cent – lower than the All Blacks’ – theirs was bolstered by a series win against the British and Irish Lions and a successive World Cup title.

What compounded the sense that the All Blacks have fallen back to the pack, was their inferior head-to-head record against Ireland, South Africa and France.

They played Ireland five times in the last World Cup cycle and only won twice; they won three of seven against South Africa and lost both encounters against the French.

That the All Blacks won the Rugby Championship in 2021, 2022 and 2023 and made the World Cup final – defeating Ireland in the quarter-final – suggests they remain a good team and makes a nonsense of this idea they have collapsed as a meaningful rugby force.

But they are no longer the team the rest of the world would automatically consider the best: they are not the country setting the standards or raising the bar technically and tactically.

In other words, their current ranking of number three in the world is accurate and reflective of where they truly sit and that it is entirely reasonable and statistically justified that the mighty All Blacks are not in the conversation about being the world’s best team.

NZR’s financial masterplan to commercialise the All Blacks is based not just on the statistical record of the All Blacks – but the reputation they have built about being the great innovators.

To be back in the pack amongst the also rans is new territory for the All Blacks – but it is also territory they can’t sustainably occupy because it taints the whole brand story of relentless success, and impacts New Zealand Rugby’s ability to make money from their prized asset.

When the All Blacks had an 87 per cent win ratio over a decade, multi-national corporations came knocking on NZR’s door looking to throw sponsorship money around.

In 2021, Ineos, Altrad and Taisho collectively paid an estimated $60 million per annum to have their name somewhere on the All Blacks’ kit for the next six years.

Now that the All Blacks are only winning 70 per cent of their tests, NZR  might find when they come to renew these deals in 2026, that the sales proposition has weakened – more significantly than many might realise.

NZR’s financial masterplan to commercialise the All Blacks is based not just on the statistical record of the All Blacks – but the reputation they have built about being the great innovators and a nation so rich in rugby intellect that they will never be down for long.

That perception is fading though, and the world no longer views the All Blacks as being the team to catch: the team to emulate in style, structure and mind-set.

Right now, the two most powerful and marketable rugby brands are Ireland and the Springboks – because these two are seen to be the most innovative, the most likely to keep evolving and to keep winning.

This was always the All Blacks’ default setting – the strategic and style leaders of the global game, with New Zealand recognised as the spiritual home of rugby.

Not now. Not with the Springboks having won back-to-back World Cups and Ireland producing the consistency of performance that suggests their development systems, coaching programmes and high-performance pathways are better than everyone else’s.

And if the Scott Robertson era is to be deemed a success, he’s going to have to deliver an improved win ratio across his tenure, and more specifically, he’s going to have to produce a dominant head-to-head record against South Africa, Ireland and France.

These statistics need to improve to rekindle the perception of New Zealand being rugby’s centre of excellence.

They’ve been pretty innovative and have evolved really well in the last few games, so that’s the exciting part. You get to see enough of them in test footy, and you see how coach Rassie Erasmus’ mind works.

Scott Robertson

Which means that the next two weeks are going to be critical in the All Blacks’ quest to get back into the conversation about who is the world’s best rugby team.

If they are going to not only close the points gap in the rankings, but shift opinion about their potential, the All Blacks need to be able to show they can stress and break South Africa on their home patch.

Robertson acknowledged as much before he headed to the Republic. “They’ve got a clear DNA, South Africa,” he said of the enormity of playing two tests there.

“They’re just a different challenge. They’re set piece orientated but can get you in some great kick battles and put pressure on you in different ways,” said the All Black coach.

“They’ve been pretty innovative and have evolved really well in the last few games, so that’s the exciting part. You get to see enough of them in test footy, and you see how coach Rassie Erasmus’ mind works.

“He’s pretty special. They’ve got a great group there, so they are going to be two great test matches.”

He didn’t offer an opinion on what would constitute a successful trip, but as Ireland one won and lost one in July, and the All Blacks, as a minimum, will have to do the same to ignite a sense of excitement about where they are heading.

But they must do more than win a test over there – they have to show an element of innovation and outthink the Springboks as well as outplay them.

There has to be a touch of magic about the way the All Blacks play under Robertson – something to ignite the imagination and suggest that New Zealand is bouncing back.

Between 2010 and 2019, the All Blacks only lost one Rugby Championship test in South Africa and in the 21 times they met in that period across all competitions, New Zealand won 17, lost three and drew once. That’s the sort of dominance they need to assert to change.

The world needs a reminder that the All Blacks are smart and resourceful as well as resilient but above all else, if New Zealand are going to start to convince as a team on the rise, they need to show they can win in hostile venues such as Ellis Park and Cape Town.

Between 2010 and 2019, the All Blacks only lost one Rugby Championship test in South Africa and in the 21 times they met in that period across all competitions, New Zealand won 17, lost three and drew once.

That’s the sort of dominance they need to assert to change the narrative and restore their position as the automatic favourites every time they take the field.