Three-way race to be number one in World Rugby men's rankings

Ireland, South Africa and New Zealand could all be ranked number one in the world in a few days’ time, adding another fascinating sub-plot to what should be a brilliant weekend of Test rugby.

As many as 13 matches, including some notable Rugby World Cup 2023 replays, will count towards the rankings, but it’s what happens at the top that will grab most people’s attention.

South Africa conceded number one status to Ireland when they lost to Argentina in September, bringing to an end a 13-month unbroken reign, dating back to the quarter-finals of Rugby World Cup 2023.

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Ireland have been ranked first in the six weeks since but Friday night’s clash against the All Blacks in Dublin is the first time they have been tested on the field of play since replacing the Springboks at number one.

Andy Farrell’s side are guaranteed to remain on top of the rankings if they beat the All Blacks and extend their winning record at home to 20 matches, regardless of the outcome of South Africa’s match against Scotland at Murrayfield.

However, if Ireland fail to win, South Africa will return to number one in the world if they make it nine wins in a row against Scotland. A draw would also be enough for the Springboks if Ireland lose.

New Zealand’s 24-22 win over England at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham, may not have led to them improving on third place but it has put them in a position to climb to first place this weekend.

The All Blacks haven’t been number one since the Rugby World Cup 2019 semi-final, but it will be theirs for the taking if they beat Ireland and South Africa lose to Scotland, a scenario which would see the All Blacks leapfrog both sides.

If South Africa draw with Scotland then New Zealand must have beaten Ireland by more than 15 points in the earlier of the two kick-offs to claim top spot and effectively swap places with Ireland.

Meanwhile, France cannot improve their rating in fourth with victory over Japan as a result of the 14.65 points difference between the sides before home weighting is factored in.

However, there is scope for plenty of movement among the other teams in action in the Autumn Nations Series or men’s internationals this weekend.

Four teams can end the weekend in fourth – current incumbents France and then Argentina, England and Scotland if Les Bleus lose at home to Japan.

Los Pumas will jump two places to fourth if they beat Italy and France are beaten on home soil by Japan, regardless of what England do against Australia.

For England to climb to fourth they must not only defeat Australia, but also hope that Argentina and Scotland fail to win and France lose by more than 15 points.

If Argentina and Scotland do win then England will fall a place to sixth even if they beat the Wallabies by more than 15 points – two if France’s defeat is by a smaller margin. England have not been as low as seventh since February 2016.

Italy are currently at their highest-ever position of eighth and cannot go any higher, even if they beat Argentina by more than 15 points as there is not a combination of results to make this possible.

The Azzurri could beat Los Pumas and still fall a place if Australia beat England at Allianz Stadium.

As for the match in Cardiff, there is a lot riding on the outcome for both Wales and Fiji. Fiji could climb as many as two places with victory over Wales, but it is dependent on the scoreline and results of other matches involving teams around them.

Wales cannot improve on 11th place even if they beat Fiji by more than 15 points, although the deficit between themselves and the top 10 would be cut to just 0.03 rating points.

There is a scenario where Wales could drop to a new low of 12th – if they lose to Fiji by more than 15 points and Japan beat France by the same margin.

Japan would jump three places in this case, also climbing above both Samoa and Georgia who are not in test action this weekend, with the latter playing the All Blacks XV in Montpellier.

Away from the Autumn Nations Series, there are seven matches on three continents this weekend which can also impact the rankings.

Two of these fixtures in Europe – Canada v Chile and Spain v Uruguay – involve teams separated by only one place and in each, the lower-ranked team (Canada and Spain) will leapfrog their opponents if they win.

Spain will also climb above a Tonga side beaten by Romania, while Canada can return to the top 20 for the first time since February 2019 with victory over Chile – the side that ended their hopes of qualifying for Rugby World Cup 2023 – and the Oaks lose.

Chile can enter the top 20 for the first time with victory if Romania lose, or the Oaks draw and Chile win by more than 15 points. However, Los Condores will fall a place to 23rd if they lose and Hong Kong China beat their visitors Brazil in the first of two tests between the nations this month.

Portugal cannot improve on 15th place even if they beat USA by more than 15 points in Coimbra as they can only gain a maximum of 0.31 rating points. Defeat for Portugal could see them fall as many as three places depending on the margin and other results with USA becoming the higher ranked of the two nations if they win by more than 15 points.

Uruguay can climb a place to 16th if they beat Spain and Tonga lose to Romania.

The Men’s Elgon Cup 2024 first leg also features two sides separated by one place but Kenya will move above Uganda if they taste victory in Nairobi.

Brazil, though, have the most to gain this weekend as victory over Hong Kong China would lift them four places to 26th with a new high of 23rd possible if they win by more than 15 points.

Czechia cannot improve their position by beating Croatia in the Rugby Europe Men’s Trophy 2024-25, but will slip below their visitors if they suffer defeat.

The Rugby Europe Men’s Conference 2024-25 match between Ukraine and Slovakia will not count towards the rankings as the latter are not a full member of World Rugby.