The slim chance Wales have to break back into top 10

Wales have an opportunity to break back into the top 10 of the World Rugby rankings this weekend, according to the latest ranking permutations published by World Rugby.

In July Wales dropped out of the top ten in the official World Rugby Rankings for the first time. A 2-0 series defeat against the Wallabies this summer extended Wales’ losing run to nine Tests – one short of equalling the record sequence in 2002 and 2003 under Steve Hansen.

They are on the verge of their worst run since they began playing international rugby 143 years ago.

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Wales are currently ranked 11th but could regain their spot in the top ten. It all depends on the outcome of several matches in the Asahi Super Dry Pacific Nations Cup 2024.

For Wales to move up they need 10th-ranked Fiji to lose to the USA by more than 15 points in their semi-final match this weekend.

Fixture

Pacific Nations Cup

Fiji

22 - 3

Full-time

USA

All Stats and Data

Fiji cannot gain any additional rating points from a win due to the significant 12.35-point differential between them and the lower-ranked USA. If Fiji suffers a heavy defeat they could fall one place; allowing Warren Gatland’s side to take their position.

“Wales are clearly in a transition period, with the amount of players they have lost, are injured or unavailable,” former Wales captain Biggar told the PA news agency earlier this year. “I do think Warren is going with the mindset of building depth and exposing players with a World Cup plan.

“And I think there were some positive signs in that Test series. I thought Ben Thomas looked quite comfortable in the number 10 shirt, Sam Costelow when he came off the bench did really well, and I thought the back-row worked incredibly hard.

“The bottom line at the minute is Wales are in a rebuilding phase, and I thought there were enough promising signs on that tour to have something to build on.

Other matches in the Pacific Nations Cup will also impact the rankings. Japan, ranked 14th, could rise to 13th if they win their semi-final against Samoa. Conversely, if 13th-ranked Samoa wins, they would leapfrog Georgia into 12th place.

If Mahonri Schwalger’s side wins by more than 15 points and Fiji loses by a similar margin, the two Pacific Island nations would be separated by just 0.13 rating points in 11th and 12th.

The USA has a chance to rise at least two places with a win over Fiji, potentially climbing three places if the margin is greater than 15 points or if Tonga loses to Canada in the fifth-place play-off. Meanwhile, Tonga cannot move beyond their current 16th position, though a loss to Canada could see them fall as many as three places.

additional reporting PA