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Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for Round 5.
A solid Round 4 for the Oracle with only the Brumbies getting in the way of an otherwise perfect week. With 7/8 correct picks his season record is up to 24/34 or 71%.
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Crusaders vs Force (Christchurch)
After a string of come-from-impossible-position wins you can bet the Crusaders won’t want to try that particular stunt for the fourth week running. Two reasons exist for that: one, they should never fall 20 points behind the Force to begin with, and two, if anyone gets that far back of the Force the game will be shut down and turned into a scrappy, error-ridden affair that makes a big revival impossible. It won’t happen, and unless Scott Robertson plays the fool with his team selections the home side should be good enough to win by 20 and not spot the opposition that sort of lead.
Pick: Crusaders
Rebels vs Waratahs (Melbourne)
On recent showings, this game could simply be pig-ugly. The Rebels were always going to struggle this season but the Waratahs should be a great deal better than they are; one gets the impression they’ve been treading water waiting for Bernard Foley to return and they’ll be three times the team once he has. He is back on the team list for this week, so I expect the Waratahs to start playing like a real rugby team and give the Rebels a hiding.
Pick: Waratahs
Blues vs Bulls (Albany)
Now free of New Zealand opposition, the Blues should feel a whole lot better about themselves. They’ve lost their last two games rather than the opposition winning them, but those teams are better than the Bulls who have, frankly, been disappointing. They have the potential to be a lot better than they are, but until things start to click and basic errors are eliminated, it will only be potential. This is a game the Blues should win by a bit; if they can play with the same purpose as in the first half at Christchurch and keep going for 80 minutes it could be well worth watching.
Pick: Blues
Brumbies vs Highlanders (Canberra)
Here’s a chance for Stephen Larkham to extract his revenge for getting robbed last year in the quarter-finals. Actually, the Brumbies were as boring as hell in that game, playing for penalties and yellow cards that were not forthcoming because Angus Gardner is too good a ref to get suckered in by all the screaming and arm- waving. It’s hard to get a handle on the Brumbies at present; they should have won the two games they lost and deserved to win the two they did, although the opposition was mediocre. The Highlanders are better than 1-3 but have a never-ending injury toll to contend with. I’ll wait till I see who’s fit and who is not, but I have a feeling that the visitors might just be stretched a little thin. Much as I hate to say it, I can see the Brumbies winning here.
Pick: Brumbies
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Sunwolves vs Stormers (Singapore)
Short and sharp here: the Stormers will win by a lot. They are a lot better than the Sunwolves, especially up front, and I can’t see any way the hosts should be able to stay with their visitors.
Pick: Stormers
Kings vs Lions (Port Elizabeth)
For a prediction here, just copy the one above and change names as appropriate. The Kings play a spoiling type of game, trying to stay close and hoping for the best. The Lions play an expansive sort of game, saying ‘Stay with us if you can’. Most teams cannot. The Kings certainly won’t. Notwithstanding a wet day or a Lions B team, expect a 30-plus margin.
Pick: Lions
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Cheetahs vs Sharks (Bloemfontein)
While neither side has been setting the world on fire, the Sharks have been a lot better than the Cheetahs and despite their limited attacking repertoire, I find a fair bit to like in what they do. They don’t try to play above their limits. They don’t take many risks. They don’t make many mistakes. They can make teams pay for errors. Rugby 101 maybe, but it is the best plan they have and it’s working. The Cheetahs will leave too much ball lying around against a side like the Sharks, who will likely strangle them slowly. It could be ugly, but the Durban loyal won’t care.
Pick: Sharks
Jaguares vs Reds (Buenos Aires)
Given how poorly the Reds played at Johannesburg, and the fact they’ll be without Quade Cooper, and may also be without James Slipper, you could write your own ticket on them at the bookies this week. The Jaguares are cynical and scrappy at times, but they are also a test team and starting to play like one. It should be three in a row for the South Americans, and three by fairly solid margins at that.
Pick: Jaguares
TL;DR: Crusaders / Waratahs / Blues / Brumbies / Stormers / Lions / Sharks / Jaguares
Comments on RugbyPass
It’s a good, timely wake up call for NZ Rugby (seem to be a few of them lately!) - sort out the bureaucratic nonsense at board level. We can’t expect to stay the number one option without keeping fans/players engaged. We’ve obviously been bleeding players to league for years but can’t let the floodgates open (although I think this headline is hyperbolic as it’s a result of a recent Warriors pathways system where they are tracking things more closely) Understand the need to focus boys on rugby if they’re at a proud rugby school too, don’t think it’s harsh at all re Barakat in Hamilton. Reward the committed players with squad positions. An elite 1st XV system in NZ has done more for league than they even realise, think it’s good to protect our game further.
6 Go to commentsDon’t pay a blind bit of notice to Lukie… he likes the sound of his own voice and is always looking for something controversial to say. He has been banging on about Leinster's defensive system all season like he knows something Jacques Nienebar doesn’t. Which is the reason why he didn’t apply for the job obviously
14 Go to commentsWho got the benefits out of Schmidt, Lowe, Aki, and Gibson Park?
14 Go to commentsWhat’s new its a common occurrence, just the journos out there expecting a negative spin. The outcome will be beneficial to jordie and Leinster. The home grown lads hav got some experience to step up to and be more competitive, that or spend the 6 months keeping the bench warm.
14 Go to commentsI’m all for speeding up the game. But can we be certain that the slowness of the game contributed to fans walking out? I’m not so sure. Super rugby largely suffered from most fans only being able to, really, follow the games played in their own time zone. So at least a third of the fan base wasn’t engaged at any point in time. As a Saffer following SA teams in the URC - I now watch virtually every European game played on the weekend. In SR, I wouldn’t be bothered to follow the games being played on the other side of the world, at weird hours, if my team wasn’t playing. I now follow the whole tournament and not just the games in my time zone. Second, with New Zealand teams always winning. It’s like formula one. When one team dominates, people lose interest. After COVID, with SA leaving and Australia dipping in form, SR became an even greater one horse race. Thats why I think Japan’s league needs to get in the mix. The international flavor of those teams could make for a great spectacle. But surely if we believe that shaving seconds off lost time events in rugby is going to draw fans back, we should be shown some figures that supports this idea before we draw any major conclusions. Where are the stats that shows these changes have made that sort of impact? We’ve measured down to the average no. Of seconds per game. Where the measurement of the impact on the fanbase? Does a rugby “fan” who lost interest because of ball in play time suddenly have a revived interest because we’ve saved or brought back into play a matter of seconds or a few minutes each game? I doubt it. I don’t thinks it’s even a noticeable difference to be impactful. The 20 min red card idea. Agreed. Let’s give it a go. But I think it’s fairer that the player sent off is substituted and plays no further part in the game as a consequence.
2 Go to commentsThose are pretty good draws for the two top Aussie teams. I certainly wouldn't want my Chiefs to have a quarter final in Brisbane. None of the top teams will want the Crusaders.
1 Go to commentsHonestly, I am a bit lost here …. Ireland - RSA was (at least in my opinion) perhaps (from a purely technical / rugby-skills-show point of view) the pinnacle of the RWC2023 - almost flawless playing (putting aside the kicking of RSA which was the difference between the two teams), rugby at it’s very best …. if I were a Bok and after the game some Irish lads came around saying “see you in 5 weeks same place”, I definitely wouldn’t have thought of it as being in any way “arrogant”, rather a sort of jolly “if we both continue to play like this, no one could stop us” - besides, few of us fans would have, at that time, been surprised to see the same teams playing on 23 september and 28 october 2023 ….. well, we all know Ireland chose to hit a slump to keep the QF curse alive …..
135 Go to commentsThere’s value gleaned from having an All Black star running and training with your team. How many games he starts (or even where he plays in the backline) will be decided on a week by week basis based on the needs for that week. But the overall learning and growth for all concerned, I’d think, is massively beneficial. Especially for Irish players.
14 Go to commentsSon, whith just " raw athlete “ , you are able to beat “ better rugby players “ by 74 points…. May be England should recruit in athletics….
1 Go to commentsPffft. It’s not a one-way street bud and Irish teams don’t seem to have had an issue taking kiwi players previously.
14 Go to commentsParticularly great to have captain Scott Barrett back after going off last week for the Crusaders. Codie Taylor a real leader and mighty Tamaiti Williams join Fletcher Newell in the front row. Those 2 will make a big difference. Great bench with the likes of Tom Christie, Jamie Hannah etc who are playing well. Should be a great derby.
1 Go to commentsDoes a blitz defence not have a weekness against a well-placed grubber kick, perhaps angled cleverly. All the defence is up and the full-back can only cover so much ground. Thoughts?
28 Go to commentsWhile Iose is destructive in the Canes set-up, he is not big for an international 8 and could struggle against the top teams. With his speed, he could be developed into a seven but, as Ben points out, he doesn’t show a scavenging game with the Canes or make dominating tackles. Sotutu has shown a step up this year and attitude plus motivation seems to be the big areas of growth. Deserves another AB shot imo.
3 Go to commentsNaholo is my only question mark for this side. He wasn’t the only one who had a forgettable game against the Brumbies but he was passive, defensively poor and generally lacked energy. Needs to get a whole lot busier for me. I would have liked to see Sullivan on that wing with Higgins on the bench (if staying with a 6-2 as BeegMike points out on here!)
3 Go to commentsWell, I am sure that Eben said exactly what he meant to say, exactly how he meant to say it. Does he strike you as a man that doesn't know arrogance when he sees it. He should know it because he has shaken the arrogance out of many foes before.
135 Go to commentsPls get it into your thick arrogant heads that the final was played by two Southern Hemisphere teams. The best against the best and that Argentina was just unlucky otherwise non of the Northetn Hemisphere teams would have seen the light of day.
135 Go to commentsAs long as New Zealand youth are involved in sport they are passionate for, and are well supported, it’s all good. I love league as well as rugby. NRL clubs have long since scouted the First 15 competitions, the NH and Japan scout super rugby and NPC. It’s a miracle there’s any players left for the all blacks to pick from.
6 Go to commentsI'm a Bok fan, so I don't say this lightly, but he is one of my all time favourite players. I am really going to miss watching him play. Thanks for many great memories. You are a true legend of the game.
3 Go to commentsBest way to deal with all of this is to play another game.
135 Go to commentsIt’s 12-15 games Luke. Ringrose has barely played in 2024 and Henshaw and Keenan have also been out for spells in the same time period. There are always injuries and for younger players to play with the likes of Barrett will be great for them. It’s just looking for negatives where there are none.
14 Go to comments