Hong Kong China or South Korea: Who’s qualifying for Australia 2027?

The Asia Rugby Championship 2025 is heading towards its climax, with South Korea and Hong Kong China set to face off on July 5th, the winner securing a coveted spot in the Rugby World Cup.

The Asian qualification process began in 2024, eventually seeing four nations qualify for the 2025 Asia Rugby Championship: Hong Kong China, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, and Sri Lanka.

In the opening round, Sri Lanka nearly caused a major upset, losing by just four points to South Korea. Although the Mugunghwas claimed a 38-34 victory, it was a less-than-convincing display from one of the main contenders for the World Cup berth.

Hong Kong China took on the UAE and quickly dispatched one of World Rugby’s newest nations, with Andrew Douglas’s side securing a 43-10 win.

Round two kicked off with a bang as the UAE stunned South Korea in a fierce encounter that shook up the predictions. Meanwhile, Hong Kong China remained unfazed, cruising to a dominant 78-07 victory over Sri Lanka.

So, where does the race stand? Hong Kong China sits comfortably atop the table with 10 points and needs only a draw to finally taste the sweet nectar of World Cup qualification. However, South Korea, who will oppose them next Saturday, won’t easily relinquish their dream of reaching the Men’s Rugby World Cup for the first time.

The two nations have met 37 times before, with Hong Kong China holding a 21-16 edge. South Korea’s last victory over their Asian rivals came in 2013, and since then, they have endured a 12-match losing streak.

Having featured in the 2018 and 2022 World Rugby repechage tournaments, Hong Kong has steadily strengthened its squad, developing a centralised contracts programme that includes captain and back row Joshua Hrstich, Luke van der Smit, scrum-half Jack Combes, and Thomas Hill.

Bedford Blues’ Matt Worley has been one of Hong Kong’s standout performers, crossing the whitewash four times in the Asia Rugby Championship and boasting 16 tries in fourteen caps.

South Korea will enter the clash as underdogs. Their main strength lies in the set-piece, with a particularly ruthless scrum. Prop Na Kwan Young is among the most experienced players, alongside hooker Kim Jeep and centre Kim Nam Uk. Jang Hyun Goo leads the team’s scoring in the 2025 Asia Rugby Championship, kicking 15 points since round one.

As both sides prepare for what promises to be a historic showdown, Hong Kong China’s more experienced and in-form squad may give them the edge against South Korea’s challenge.

However, the stakes extend beyond this match. Should South Korea lose, they risk missing out on the Asia/Africa playoff, with the UAE just two points behind and facing Sri Lanka on July 4th. A UAE win combined with a Hong Kong China victory over South Korea would keep the World Cup qualification race wide open.

The decisive fixture is scheduled for 8 am UTC / 5 pm KST on July 5th at South Korea’s Incheon Namdong Asiad Rugby Field. One thing is certain: the winner will claim the Asian 1 qualification spot and become the 27th nation to qualify for the men’s Rugby World Cup.