Why now is the perfect time for Italy to shock England

Italy versus England could be a 30 for 30 ESPN doco but not a pleasant one, as the Azzurri have 30 losses from the 30 matches played between the two nations going back to 1991.

Smart money will not ride Italy for a historic first-ever win in the opening round of the Six Nations at Stadio Olympico, there is no form to indicate that they can defy history yet.

But despite contrasting Rugby World Cup campaigns, Italy shipped 96 points to the All Blacks before a pool stage exit, England won bronze after reaching the semi-finals, English rugby is dealing with a malaise that suggests it is rotting from the core.

When someone as competitive as captain Owen Farrell has had enough as a 32-year-old, a player who has gone on record about wanting to play as long as possible and measures greatness by longevity at the peak, something has gone very wrong.

They’ve dished up insipid performances like the 53-10 hammering to France last Six Nations, booed off the Twickenham pitch by their own fans.

They’ve produced the bizzare, utterly baffling wins over Argentina with 14-men at the World Cup. And then they had South Africa on the ropes in a World Cup semi-final, with Farrell’s dagger drop goal building a 15-6 lead before a final quarter collapse.

They seemed to play better with less men on the field last year, and the joke is the players were so bad when they lose one, they become better by subtraction.

Steve Borthwick has swept the changes for the Six Nations with less than half of his 2023 World Cup squad featuring. Maybe that is a good thing, but it also gives Italy a level playing field.

Borthwick has hit the reset button and is beginning a rebuild, which means unproven & untried combinations, a lack of cohesion and experience.

The tide of change is bubbling underneath the surface for Italy which breeds hope for a brighter future in a competition where they have been a doormat since inception.

In that context, this clash with England is intriguing as expectations are building that Italy can deliver competitiveness and finally make the tournament a six team event.

In 2020 the U20 side produced wins over Scotland and Wales. In 2021 they had close losses to France and Ireland, the two benchmark teams.

2022 went a step further with a historic first-ever win over England by 6-0 and two more wins over Scotland and Wales.

In 2023 they were again competitive with two closes losses and two wins, again over Scotland and Wales, while at the World U20 Championships they knocked over South Africa at home.

A number of the players from those bumper U20 sides are filtering through to the test side. Nearly half of this year’s squad were Italy U20 reps since 2020, 16 of the 34.

Uncapped South Africa-born Ross Vintcent has been named, boom 21-year-old centre Tommaso Menoncello is back from injury, both from the 2021 crop.

Of the 34-man squad 17 players are from Benetton, who are sitting second on the United Rugby Championship ladder with 7 wins 1 loss behind Leinster.

Benetton are in winning form and Italy can rely upon some of that cohesion to build the combinations in the national side.

More so than Borthwick’s England side who will have very little cohesion to rely upon.

Everyone will remember the 96 points that the All Blacks put on Italy at the Rugby World Cup and few will remember the 17 scored by the Azzurri.

Argentina managed 12 points in their first fixture of the year against New Zealand and just six in the semi-final. The two European powers Ireland and France scored 24 and 27, respectively. Italy’s 17 is not half-bad.

England travel to Rome with a new side, Marcus Smith is out, Italy can trouble them and could absolutely shock them in the right circumstances.

If they can run England close this weekend by losing by 5-10 points, it suggests a competitive Italy is just around the corner.