What we learned from the June Internationals
Ireland came away with a historic 2-1 away series victory over the Wallabies, the All Blacks swept France 3-0 and the Springboks came alive to beat England 2-1 under new coach Rassie Erasmus. The rest of the Celtic nations took turns beating on the hapless Argentina and Fiji won the Pacific Nations Cup.
Here are the biggest takeaways from the month of international rugby.
Ireland are the All Blacks’ biggest threat
Ireland fought a close series with Australia that swung on the slimmest of margins. It wasn’t a dominant display of power like the All Blacks’ dismissal of France, but it showed that Ireland is prepared to play smart rugby and grind out wins.
Ireland’s second test blueprint is exactly what they need to bring when they play the All Blacks in Dublin later this year. They starved Australia of possession for near on sixty minutes while accumulating enough points to put the game out of reach.
France looked good when they were able to hold the ball for extended periods against the All Blacks, but their lack of composure and execution meant they couldn’t keep it quite long enough. Ireland, however, are a far better side when it comes to controlling the ball and the clock, with a zero offload policy and clinical recycling.
The best way to stay in the game against the All Blacks is to retain the ball and play ‘keep away’. England’s defensive kicking will play into the hands of the All Blacks, while Ireland’s possession-based game will match up far better.
Referees are making too many headlines
The officiating has grabbed way too many headlines in this international period, taking away the gloss from some of the fascinating contests. From the Grosso tackle, the Fall and Folau cards and a new take on obstruction, the referees have left too many fans scratching their heads.
In the lead up to the under-20 World Championship, RugbyPass highlighted the dangers of aerial contests and the murky rules regarding their policing. That proved to be timely as the June internationals were dogged by controversial calls around the jump ball area on both sides of the ditch.
Then there was the downright bizarre, with McKenzie’s first try in the third test standing after being reviewed by both the referee and the TMO for obstruction. The referee clearly influenced the play by obstructing Baptiste Serin from making a tackle attempt. The worrying outcome here is this try was reviewed and still awarded.
When players lose trust in referees then we have a serious problem and who could blame the French for losing faith in the officials? Unfortunately, the run of bad calls against them takes away from the fact that they were well and truly beaten by the better side.
Springbok resurgence a nice start
Rassie Erasmus has made a statement in his first test series in charge of the Springboks, downing England 2-1 at home. While this is a great start and gives hope to the Springboks for next year, it is too small a sample size to derive any meaning from.
South Africa have always been tough at home, regardless of who is coaching. Under the guidance of Allister Coetzee they lost by a point to the All Blacks in Newlands last year. What matters more is how they follow up in the Rugby Championship, on the road, against New Zealand and Australia.
The return of overseas stars Willie le Roux, Faf De Klerk and Duane Vermeulen certainly made a big difference and if they can grow around this core the Springboks will be a serious World Cup contender.
The Wallabies will be quarter-finalists at the RWC
This is a bold prediction but after another series loss, the Wallabies are no more than pretenders.
Chieka’s win percentage against Tier One nations outside of Italy and Argentina since the last World Cup is now around 35%. They can compete in games and stay close but aren’t smart enough to close them out consistently. This has been proven conclusively over the last three years as his sides have failed time and time again.
Having a passenger as an international 10 just doesn’t work – having Will Genia and Kurtley Beale compensate for Foley is not a proven formula for success. The problem is there is no other option for the Wallabies unless Beale plays flyhalf.
Argentina is heading back to Tier 2 status, fast
The worrying slide of Argentina continued with embarrassing defeats against Wales and Scotland. On the face of it, losing to those two countries is not so bad, only for the fact that Scotland lost to the USA a week ago.
Since the 2015 World Cup, Argentina have been a doormat in the Rugby Championship, winning one game in 2016 and none last year. The vast majority of their side make up the Jaguares Super Rugby team, who conversely are enjoying their most successful season yet.
They are stuck between club success and international failure at the moment and have seemingly been left behind as the game evolves. Their head coach will step down but they have limited time to turn things around before next year’s World Cup.
Now what, Eddie?
Eddie Jones may have saved his job by avoiding a three-nil sweep in South Africa, but now there are glaringly obvious flaws to fix before the end of year All Blacks test. His players will get a summer break and refresh before Premiership rugby restarts, which should help rejuvenate his squad.
He needs to find an attack coach and figure out how to play more than one game plan, as he recently found out that if you don’t adjust it can lead to big problems.
With the All Blacks starting Damian McKenzie for the first time, everything from exit plays to pattern plays were changed to suit his game. When Beauden Barrett is at 10 the All Blacks adjust everything once again to suit.
Having Cipriani in the mix long-term will require suitable changes to enable him to flourish, rather than squashing his strengths by forcing him into Jones’ current game plan. If they can figure that out, England will be a contender next year. If not, history will repeat.
Comments on RugbyPass
Great story. Rugby needs new investment in teams like Brussels another pro league in Europe would be great.
1 Go to commentsAlso, looking at the data from last year, it seemed like by far the two biggest predictors of success were (1) kicking more than your opponents, and (2) having a higher rate of line-out wins than your opponents. I haven’t gone through the stats this year with a fine tooth comb, but the increase in kicks per game and the increase in tries from lineouts would suggest that these two metrics are only getting more important. England’s move away from a kick-heavy game to win against Ireland was seen by some as evidence that running rugby is on the rise. Alternatively it could be taken as evidence that if one team kicks more, and the other team wins more lineouts (as England did) a match is bound to be close to a draw.
2 Go to commentsI have been finding it odd that points per 22 entry has become such a talked about stat, given that your points per entry can be driven down by having more entries. These data would seem to confirm that it isn’t a useful metric, or at any rate is less useful than total entries.
2 Go to commentsI think the last two games England have played is some of their best rugby they have played under Borthwick. There has been a lot more attacking instinct and as a reward have created some well worked tries. Ollie Lawrence is a good foil at 12 as he offers the hard direct lines whilst the rest of the backs can play open. As much as it pains me to say but I do hope England keep playing this way. On a side note my favourite try of the weekend was Lorenzo Pani’s for the nice loop play that put him away and his finish was excellent. Thanks as always Nick.
39 Go to commentsMost exciting player on the planet right now, worth the price of a ticket.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith and Ireland live rent free in Safa’s heads. Their comments only triggers because its true. If the Boks had dismantled a 14 man AB’s, then there would be more respect. But they didnt, in fact quite the opposite, the 14 man NZ were clearly better. And the Bok have always been ordinary between RWC’s, thats why their supporters are now ‘only RWC’s matter’. They know thats BS. Its BS to both AB’s and Bok’s due to their history. But now its all the Safas have. Now we’ll hear excuses when they lose “oh we didnt have all our players available, the ABs/France/Eng/Irel were at full strength”, forgetting for a minute that its because of their own dumb policy. Oh well, makes a change from blaming ‘cheating refs’.
23 Go to commentsNo Nick, they did not, in fact, justify any ‘probables’ label. At no time did they seriously compete for the championship. Ireland led from start to finish and in the end, as a result of glaring referee errors, were never under serious pressure to lose their crown.
39 Go to commentsMoney for him, and his family, has been the sole motivator since he signed for Queensland aged 17. Why else sign for Melbourne. Tupou is poorly advised. If he’d stayed and developed in NZ he would have had a long Test career. If Leinster offer him a few more coins than he’s currently earning, he’s goneburger.
4 Go to commentsFinn. No one would say Ford had played well up until the last game. One standout performance in 5 is hardly in form . It should be a given that a 10 will control play . Not in Fords case be praised for suddenly doing so. Where was he against Scotland ,Italy. The pundits were saying how far away from play he was standing and one even said that the Ireland game was his last chance saloon to perform . Not exactly top form catching anyones eye. If he can play like this game after game then great. Keep him in . But after 90 odd caps we all know he just doesnt keep it going . By all means keep him there but the issue is that Borthwick will persist even when he plays poorly. Which is more often than not. Thats why i am concerned that Smith ,despite fab form , cannot get a game at his preferred spot. Can you imagine Ford at full back .
5 Go to commentsI do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
6 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
39 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
2 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
4 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to commentsFinn Russell logic: “World” = 4 countries. Ireland may be at or near the top. FR’s bigger concern should be he and his fellow Scots (incl. the Bloemfontein ones) sliding back down to below top 10
42 Go to commentsMind games have begun. Ireland learned their lesson after saying they could beat England with 13 players or whatever. Still, if they win at Loftus, that would be impressive - final frontier etc.
58 Go to comments$950k for a Prop that isn’t fit enough to play 10 mins of rugby? Surely there is someone better to replace Big Mike with
4 Go to commentsFour Kiwis in that backline. A solid statement on the lack of invention, risk-taking and joy in the NH game; game of attrition and head- banging tedium. Longterm medical problems aplenty in the future!
6 Go to comments