'I expect Italy to be absolutely steaming': Gary Gold's strong Six Nations take

Former Springboks assistant coach, Gary Gold, says England face being physically dominated by Italy when the sides meet in Rome a week on Saturday, unless they can find a quick fix.

Gold, who is currently part of Eddie Jones’ coaching team with Japan, has been watching the Six Nations ebb and flow with interest, and has written up his findings in a blog post.

The South African believes Italy will ‘smell blood’ after seeing England dismantled by Scotland and then Ireland, as they look to secure a first-ever Test win against the Red Rose.

“Italy lost 33–8 in Lille on Sunday. That looks one-sided. If you only saw the scoreboard, you’d move on. But if you’re building a rugby programme — and Gonzalo Quesada very much is — there are things happening in this Italian squad that should worry every team left on their schedule,” he commented.

“The number that jumps out more than any other in the entire tournament? Italy’s dominant tackle count: 46 across three matches. That’s comfortably the most of any team. It’s nearly three times what England have managed. And if you think that’s a novelty stat, you haven’t coached in a tight Test match.

“Dominant tackles are the moments that stop momentum, force handling errors, and shift the psychological balance of a contest. When you’re consistently putting ball carriers on their backs, you’re not just defending — you’re making a statement. You’re building an identity. And it’s the kind of foundation that translates directly to World Cup rugby.

“We saw what that physicality looks like when it clicks in Round 1 in Rome, where Italy ground out an 18–15 upset over Scotland. They’ve also won 24 turnovers across the tournament — fourth overall, but not far off the top. And their scrum? Also 100%, matching France.

“The scoreline in Lille flatters the French somewhat; Italy fronted up physically but were undone by the sheer quality of French execution in the wide channels. That happens when you play the best team in the tournament away from home. It doesn’t invalidate the foundation.”

Meanwhile, Gold says the ‘warning lights’ have come on fast for England.

“A 31–20 Calcutta Cup loss to Scotland at Murrayfield in Round 2. Then a 42–21 hammering by Ireland at Twickenham in Round 3 — Ireland’s biggest ever win on English soil. The home crowd were stunned. And when you look at the data behind those results, you can see why the coaches will be concerned,” he wrote.

“England’s 81% tackle success is the worst in the Championship. Their 16 dominant tackles across three rounds ties them with Wales at the bottom of that column. For a side that built its recent winning run on defensive intensity, that is an alarming decline. They’ve also conceded 32 penalties — the most of any team — and picked up three yellow cards. The discipline has frayed alongside the defense, and the two are usually connected.

“Now, this is not a place to throw stones. This forum isn’t about criticism for its own sake. But the numbers are the numbers, and they tell a story that Borthwick and his staff will already know: something in the defensive system has come loose. The question is whether the drop-off has been so sudden that it can be corrected just as quickly.

“England have the players — nobody is questioning the talent in that squad. But talent without cohesion is just potential, and potential doesn’t win Test matches in Rome.

And that’s the brutal reality of England’s run-in. Italy away, then France at home (sic – they’re away) on the final day. It is not remotely unreasonable to imagine a team that won twelve tough Tests in a row now losing four in succession. Not because they’re weak — but because the margins in Test rugby are that small, and the next two opponents will smell blood.

“I expect Italy to be absolutely steaming when they welcome England to the Stadio Olimpico,” he added. “They beat Scotland there in Round 1. They know they can physically dominate opponents in that environment.

“They’ll see this as a major opportunity to jump up the Six Nations log before their final game away to Ireland (sic – Wales). And with England’s defensive numbers where they are, Italy will fancy it — and they should.”