Analysis: Did the All Blacks ‘bottle it’ and shadow-box against Ireland?
After a review at the ‘macro’ factors surrounding the All Blacks try-scoring troubles abroad this November, a review of the ‘micro’ details of the Dublin test reveals a very uncharacteristic All Blacks game.
Aside from the execution errors, the decisions and game strategy executed by the players was very foreign, unlike anything we have seen for them this year.
“We are still stuck between the old way, and the new way, and we haven’t got it right yet,” explained Hansen after the 16-9 defeat.
There are many aspects of this All Blacks performance that just don’t add up on the face of it. The deeper you dive, the more suspect it becomes.
The first observation being the forward pack, the tight five in particular, looked like they had played a game already before stepping onto the pitch.
This performance had some of the poorest transitions into shape you will see from an All Blacks side, almost right from the start, with many of the tight five failing to retreat on kicks, and set up adequately with the pod ball carrier, dropping three-man pods down to two like flies, getting into position late and disrupting the flow during phase play.
It was like the forwards had run a marathon before the game, or were carrying significant injuries, with many walking around the field during play.
We know the main All Blacks squad skipped the Japan test to head to the UK a week early. Did they get flogged with pre-season conditioning for two weeks in order to be able to simulate fatigue during late-World Cup knockout games, turning these two massive games into a semi-final and final trial run?
With this tour being the only chance to play the top Northern Hemisphere sides before the World Cup, it wouldn’t be out of the question to turn this trip into a World Cup dress rehearsal and experiment with such an exercise.
It is also plausible the team could have just hit a wall with late-season fatigue, but with the quality of personnel on the field, it’s hard to fathom that they would be gassed after just ten minutes.
It was clear that something just wasn’t right and it only got worse throughout the match.
The All Blacks opened the game with a territorial kicking back and forth, before winning an attacking opportunity inside Ireland’s 22 inside the first three minutes.
It would be the first and last time in the match they would breach Ireland’s five-metre line. The Irish defence soaked up 12 phases, mainly of one-out forward carriers, before Read became isolated and Josh van der Flier and CJ Stander were on him like magnets.
It was odd in two ways, the approach was forward-dominate and conservative in an attempt to bully their way over but it also began to fall apart quite quickly despite being early in the match.
They played one-out rugby in tight quarters but lost shape in this early attacking raid, players were over-committing to rucks and they were churning through carriers. It looked like the 84th minute, not the 4th minute.
By phase 10 Owen Franks (3) is left with only Ardie Savea (7) inside. Jack Goodhue (13) offers an unders line outside him and back-up cleaning support. Four All Blacks are on the ground in a heap at the last ruck.
Franks takes the carry and is joined by Savea, Goodhue and even Ryan Crotty as cleaners, using another four players at the breakdown.
The previous ruck comes around the corner for the next carry, with Kieran Read (8) setting up first and Karl Tuinukuafe (1) and Sam Whitelock (5) struggling to make it around in support. The pass has already been delivered and both aren’t in ideal position yet.
Read is tackled and the Irish loose forward duo of van der Flier and Stander are quick to target the isolated runner, finding strong position over the ball and winning a penalty for holding on.
Aside from the concerning lack of energy, the tactics are worth pointing out.
This just isn’t All Blacks rugby in 2018 – they tend to stick with a width game inside the opposition 22, staying within their pattern and playing edge-to-edge through back door passes. However, this tight game off 9 is what Ireland do inside the opposition 22.
Just one week after beating the English at their own game at Twickenham, is it a possibility that they tried to do the same thing against Ireland and shelve their normal game plan?
Further abnormal behaviour from this side was the distinct lack of ball-movement from the forwards, in favour of one-dimensional carries. This was at times, a necessity given the inability to set-up correctly.
Here in the 12th minute in the early stages of the contest, the All Blacks spread to the right edge and we see a group of forwards, half of them walking, to set up the next carry back.
Aaron Smith has the pass loaded and only Ardie Savea is in position, with Whitelock in front of him and Tuinukuafe also on his left side.
As the play develops the spacing is a mess, and costs the side an opportunity to use McKenzie out the back. One Irish defender bites in on Whitelock leaving a massive gap between the next man Josh van der Flier.
The All Blacks are not prepared for, and not interested in, using a swivel pass and releasing McKenzie for this opportunity.
This carry-first approach was apparent throughout the whole game, evident in some telling statistics.
The forward pack, bench or starting, had zero offloads, just one tip pass and used the backdoor pass just four times from a possible 29 situations in the game. That’s only 13 percent of the time they moved the ball once the target received the ball off 9.
As a comparison, during the third test against France in one of the most clinical performances of the year, Damian McKenzie got the ball 60 percent of the time he lined up in the diamond.
From the minimal set-piece platforms they had, it’s not apparent what they were working for.
They often worked the same way with multiple carries and succeeded in creating short numbers in the Ireland defence, but didn’t use them. Above on the third phase the same way after a scrum, the halfback’s pass has released with only three defenders covering outside Squire.
Damian McKenzie (15) is looking for an unders line off 9 outside the two forwards, over commits and has to back-pedal.
With Garry Ringrose biting down, if Squire is able to play Barrett out the back the All Blacks would have an opportunity down the left edge with Rieko Ioane out of shot, even with McKenzie having to recover.
Squire is intent on playing the pre-programmed carry in the movement, with eyes only for contact despite drawing two defenders.
On the next phase, Barrett tries the first of four grubber kicks used in this area of the field during the match, all four which were cleaned up and recovered by Ireland.
Another carry by Squire late in the first half has McKenzie wrapping around the outside with an overlap developing, but the ball dies again in the tackle.
Even in the transition game, with limited turnovers the All Blacks usual ‘two-pass’ approach and intent of pushing to the edge was absent.
With Ardie Savea (7) winning a loose ball on Ireland’s scrum early in the second half, he breaks to the open side with a full back line but opts to carry with acres of space available on the edge. On his next turnover opportunity, he uses a kick through that resulted in a 22 restart.
There was a distinct lack of intent to move the ball in situations the All Blacks usually thrive in. At times it was due to a lack organisation before the play, which looked to be the result of fatigue.
The decision-making and game plan was night and day from their last test against the Wallabies in Yokohama. As good as Ireland’s defence and line speed is, the decisions and game strategy are two controllables that are determined by the All Blacks, not pressure from the opposition.
Did they shadow-box this game to stop Ireland getting familiar with them? Did they deliberately exhaust their players in the preparation as part of a bigger plan? The performance on attack was so far off what you normally get from this side that suspicions start to formulate, especially when world-class players struggle to align consistently and hold onto the ball.
As much as a conspiracy theory as it sounds, the All Blacks received Board-level approval from the NZR to play a second string side in Japan. There has to be a reason for that. Is a pre-World Cup simulation exercise, that involved putting the players under exhaustion, out of the realms of possibility? Or did they just hit a massive, end-of-season wall?
They didn’t play like their normal selves, in more ways than one. It’s probably time to give them an off-season to recover.
Comments on RugbyPass
Good on Clarke for taking on the criticism and addressing his deficiencies, principally his laziness.
2 Go to comments“It is the people’s favourite against the actual favourite. It is the people’s champions against the actual champions. I’m joking, but it’s going to be a fantastic series.” Why did Darcy make that joke knowing it would be used as click bait? Why did RP headline it as a serious comment? Anyway, the tired comment isn’t very astute. SA players may have played more games etc. Darcy over estimated as a pundit.
21 Go to commentsNot sure Frisch will ever make the French team with Depoortère and Costes waiting in the wings to take over from Danty and Fickou.
1 Go to commentsThe Irish are tired and the Boks are old. The test series won't confirm who is best in the world, it will confirm which team needs to pursue the task of rebuilding with the most urgency.
21 Go to commentsGrant, the first time I have seen an article written by you. Maybe I have missed your previous stuff. These days all professional players effectively play a common season so all top players are equally tired, or rested. That is the job of the coaching ticket to build squad depth and juggle resources so players are ‘ fresh’ when the big games come. Possibly Ireland are less inclined to juggle squad compared to Rassie, who is prepared to take the risk to rest players as well as build depth throughout the year so come WC he has a full squad, experienced and rested enough to win 7 games. After all, to win WC you need to get through the tournament and then win the final big 3 games. Ireland should try and build a bit so come final 3 they are ready. So far only played final 1(QF). I am so looking forward to the Irish tour. Hopefully Rassie has enough time to align his guys, as he draws them from across the globe, and not from 2 sides locally( eg Leinster, Munster). No excuses, going to be exciting.
21 Go to commentsIn football, teams get fined and sometimes docked points for deliberately fielding weakened teams yet Leinster can pretty much do as they please with no comebacks. Could it be because Ireland run the URC? Could it be that Ireland run the ERC? Whichever it is, it stinks!!
6 Go to commentsIreland are only the People’s Champions in Irish eyes. The rest of the world do not care for them very much because of attitudes of people like Gordon, Ferris, Best, Jackman…I could go on!!
21 Go to commentsNot sure how Karl Dickson can ever ref a Quins game, he played for the club for 8 years as understudy to Care and is still close friends with half the team
3 Go to commentsAre bookies taking bets on how many times Vunipola's eventual statement will use the term “elders"? My money is on at least 4 times.
4 Go to commentsSo Ireland will be tired, despite having the most rested test squad in the world. They only play tests, champions cup and urc play off games ffs! Case in point; Leinster sent a B squad to SA for their last two games while their first xv rested up and trained at their leisure for the sf vs Saints at the so called ‘neutral venue’ of Croke Park. So tired? Do me a favour… And as for “people’s champions”? Seriously??? Outside of Ireland they are respected for their ability to win 6N. And of course plenty of inconsequential test friendlies without any real pressure. WC ko games when the pressure is white hot? Not so much…
21 Go to commentsSurprising how standing down or benching a player can do wonders for their motivation. Several players this week in that category.
2 Go to commentsHaha lads lads lads, that’s how you have a holiday In Majorca
4 Go to commentshit on Lynagh was defo late and card-worthy. The other 2 are bang on OK. Hurts you at Test level if youre timing is off and the nostrils are flared. Jerry C knew when to lean in on one, Finau just needs to keep his discipline and head straight.
7 Go to commentsSlade was exceptional against Gloucester. Not only was he doing the classic Slade stuff of running amazing lines and timing passes to perfection to put his wingers into space, he was kicking goals, flying off the line smashing people and crashing into rucks like a flanker… his hair even looked on point. 😍
1 Go to commentsThat’s really sad, hope everyone involved is ok. At least he had pants on.
4 Go to commentsTo be fair it was nowhere bear the Leinster first team (for which, btw, Leinster copped nothing like the outrage that Jake White did for sending a rotated team to the UK). But it’s fun to watch the Stormers doing their thing. They are attracting big, diverse crowds of young fans, and deservedly so. Great to see.
1 Go to commentsIt might be legal but he’s sailing pretty close to the wind. Not a lot needs to go wrong for Finau to end up in the bin. Was it late? Not quite, but borderline. High? A couple of CM within the laws, no room for error with that one. Did he wrap the arms? There was a token effort to wrap one arm, the intent was clearly to hit with the shoulder. So yeah, it’s legal, just. But as we all know, a very slight change in the dynamics could easily have him seeing red. Hopefully not when it really matters.
7 Go to commentsCan we also show some love for Tane Edmed’s fantastic draw and pass? Put his body on the line and committed the defender before letting go of that pass. Flawless skill.
7 Go to commentsYou forget this is Rassie Erasmus who is still holding the Springbok keys. Even with Felix Jones orchestrating a really tight RWC SF last year. It still wasn't enough to get England past their particular Springbok Monkey in world cups. The reason is FJ was going off of what they did in 2019 not necessarily adapting to current Springboks. So yes, Australia can get passed England because let's be honest, England have a one track strategy, Springboks do not. Even with rush defense I wouldn't be surprised if Rassie continually tweaks it. Also bear in mind Rassie is happy to sacrifice a few mid year and inter World Cup matches to pin point how opposition plays and how to again tweak strategies to get his Springboks in peak performance for the next World Cup. As much as most teams like to win games in front of them and try to win everything, Rassie always makes sure to learn and train for the greatest showdown International Rugby has to offer. Tbh, most people remember World Cup wins and ignore intermediate losses as a result but will remember also WC losses, Ireland, even if they won games in the interim. So even if games are won against the Springboks, it's likely Rassie is just getting a feel for how opposition is moving and adapt accordingly…in time. For Rassie, a loss is never a loss because he uses it as a chance to learn and improve. Sometimes during a game, again like the England match in last year's Semi Final.
7 Go to commentsDanny don't care. He pretends to care but he don't. He says all this stuff to justify his reasoning but no one can claim that legitimately. He knew exactly what he was doing and wondered if his old team mate would overlook it, which he did. Ref has got to be sidelined or properly trained. It's one thing for refs to move up the ranks but if it was me I would require refs to either have played in different clubs or not at all having the temptation to bias in high stakes games like this. This has got to be stamped out. But then again World Rugby is so destroying the game of rugby in an attempt to be more “safe” and “concussion free”. What they are doing is making it more infuriating for the fans and more difficult for the refs to officiate evenly and consistently. It's fast become Australian Rules football. If guys don't want concussions, they should have played chess. Stop complaining you oldies of the game. When they played the game was vastly heavier hitting than it is now but of course they can't see that.
3 Go to comments