'Call me crazy' - Andy Goode predicts Premiership top four
Pre-season predictions can make you look foolish and there’ll be people queuing up to call me crazy but I think Northampton will make the Premiership play-offs this season.
They might have finished ninth last time around, lost 14 games in the league alone and shipped over 50 points four times in all competitions but the whole environment had become stale and there are still quite a few players at the club who were there when they finished top of the table in 2015 and won the title the year before that.
I think Ben Franks will offer a lot more than he did at London Irish, Haskell will be a big influence, Taqele Naiyaravoro is an absolute monster on the wing and the biggest addition of all is obviously at fly half.
Saints have now got a top class number 10 and if they can get him on the pitch often enough, that make the world of difference.
The signings will all provide a boost but there’s also Heinrich Brussow, who hardly played for them in his first season, and Dylan Hartley will be almost like a new signing because he’s hardly played for them recently and should have the motivation of leading his club to success in order to regain the England armband ahead of the World Cup.
It isn’t the new players that will make the biggest difference, though, it’s the change at the top. Chris Boyd is a brilliant coach and a new environment and fresh ideas will make a huge difference at Franklin’s Gardens, while the addition of Sam Vesty underneath him shouldn’t be underestimated either.
Northampton Saints
Ins: Dom Barrow (Leicester Tigers), Dan Biggar (Ospreys), Charlie Davies(Dragons), Will Davis (Ealing Trailfinders), Ben Franks (London Irish), Joe Gray (Harlequins), James Haskell (Wasps), Andrew Kellaway, Taqele Naiyaravoro(both Waratahs), Andy Symons (Gloucester) and Matt Worley (Racing 92)
Outs: Will Allman (released), Matt Beesley (Ealing Trailfinders), Kieran Brookes(Wasps), Charlie Clare (Bedford Blues), Christian Day (retired), Jamie Elliott (Bedford Blues), Juan Pablo Estelles (Rosario), Ben Foden (Rugby United New York), Nic Groom (Lions), Rob Horne (retired), Tom Kessell (Coventry), Campese Ma’afu (Leicester Tigers), Stephen Myler (London Irish), George North(Ospreys), Ben Nutley (Coventry), Jordan Onojaife (Ealing Trailfinders), Michael Paterson (released) and Tom Stephenson (London Irish)
Picking Northampton to finish fourth might seem like a radical prediction but I can’t see there being any changes at all in the positions above that.
Exeter, Saracens and Wasps have finished as the top three teams in the Premiership for three straight seasons now and have finished clear of the rest by at least seven points in every one of those campaigns, so there’s no reason to think that they won’t be the standout trio again.
I think they’ll finish in the same order as last season as well with the Chiefs top of the pile once more. They will get hit with a few more international call-ups this year but the way they operate and their consistency across key periods during the international windows makes them favourites for me.
Sandy Park is a brutal place for other teams to go and their away form was among the best in the league last season as well.
Alex Cuthbert is the only new face and they have lost some experience in the form of Julian Salvi, Kai Horstmann, Will Chudley and especially Thomas Waldrom but none of those players were first choice last season so I don’t see them being any weaker this time around.
Injuries will play a massive part as always and if Exeter are hit worse than their rivals, then their consistency will obviously be tested but the squad ethos and way they play does mean that unheralded players have tended to fill in and step up to the plate in a way that other clubs must be envious of. They have 30 players who can all play at a similar level.
That doesn’t mean they’ll be lifting the trophy aloft in May because it’s about peaking at the climax of the campaign and they were completely outplayed and outmuscled in the final a few months ago but it does make them favourites to finish top.
Exeter Chiefs
Ins: Alex Cuthbert (Cardiff Blues)
Outs: Will Chudley (Bath), Harrison Cully (Brixham RFC), Ed Holmes (Bristol Bears), Kai Horstmann (retired), Shaun Malton (Bristol Bears), Carl Rimmer (retired), Julian Salvi (retired) and Thomas Waldrom (Wellington Lions)
Saracens have the superstars but it’s difficult for them to finish top of the pile when for so much of the campaign they’re missing the likes of the Vunipolas, Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje, Jamie George, Alex Lozowski and more, with Michael Rhodes added to that list as well this season.
Farrell and Lozowski could both be away for large chunks of time with England, while Joe Simmonds and Gareth Steenson are unlikely to be.
So, it’s hard to back Sarries to finish as number one seeds but there’s no doubt that they’ll be in the play-offs and the international quality at their disposal definitely makes them favourites to retain their title.
Saracens
Ins: Viliami Hakalo (Nottingham), Alex Lewington (London Irish), David Strettle (Clermont) and Tom Woolstencroft (London Irish)
Outs: Schalk Brits (retired), Danny Cutmore (Cornish Pirates), Nathan Earle(Harlequins), Mike Ellery (England 7s), Mark Flanagan (Bedford Blues), Matt Hankin (retired), Kieran Longbottom (Western Force), Tadgh McElroy (Bedford Blues, loan), Jack Nay (Bedford Blues, loan) and Chris Wyles (retired)
Losing Jimmy Gopperth to a long-term injury is a massive blow to Wasps because it puts a lot of pressure on Lima Sopoaga to settle and hit the ground running and Billy Searle to step up as well.
It’s not an easy thing to do to come from the Southern Hemisphere to a very different league and fit in straightaway, especially as a playmaker, but he has probably been the second best number 10 in the world at times recently.
He can’t be drip fed in now because of Gopperth’s injury and he’ll be under the microscope from the off but Brad Shields will make a big difference as well and I see Wasps finishing third again.
Danny Cipriani and James Haskell have both played huge roles at the club but they have been replaced by star names and Nizaam Carr has returned as well after making a major impact in his short spell in Coventry last season, so on paper the squad looks stronger.
Wasps
Ins: Joe Atkinson (London Scottish), Kieran Brookes (Northampton Saints), Nizaam Carr (Stormers), Ambrose Curtis (Manawatu), Antonio ‘TJ’ Harris (Academy), Michael Le Bourgeois (Bedford Blues), Charlie Matthews (Harlequins), Ben Morris (Nottingham), Ross Neal (London Scottish), Billy Searle (Bristol Bears), Brad Shields (Hurricanes), Lima Sopoaga (Highlanders), Will Stuart (Academy), Tom West (Academy) and Zurab Zhvania (Stade Francais)
Outs: Guy Armitage (Ealing Trailfinders), Danny Cipriani (Gloucester), Paul Doran-Jones (released), Kyle Eastmond (Leicester Tigers), James Haskell (Northampton Saints), Sam Jones (retired), Alex Lundberg (Ealing Trailfinders), Brendan Macken (released), Marty Moore (Ulster), Will Owen (Nottingham), Matt Symons (Harlequins) and Guy Thompson (Leicester Tigers)
They’re at the top for different reasons but a combination of coaching, culture, style of play and star quality sets Exeter, Saracens and Wasps apart from the rest and I don’t see that changing this season.
Chris Boyd has the capacity to sprinkle a bit of that similar stardust on Saints this season and call me crazy but I believe they’re going to be the best of the rest.
Comments on RugbyPass
Like tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
14 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
13 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
4 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
4 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
26 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
14 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
26 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
14 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
84 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
2 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
4 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
14 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
13 Go to commentsI like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
14 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
14 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
14 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to comments