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Five potential big name casualties in a 36-man Lions squad
Warren Gatland opted for a 41-man British and Irish Lions squad to travel to New Zealand in 2017, but is going for a slimline 36-man squad to take on South Africa later this year.
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This is not unfamiliar territory though, as the Kiwi took a 37-man squad to Australia in 2013 with a split of 21 forwards and 16 backs.
A squad of 36 means five players will miss out who were originally in a 41-man draft squad. Given the nature of the opposition and Gatland’s proclivity to select forward-heavy squads in the past with Wales, he may go for 21 forwards and 15 backs. This would suggest two forwards miss out from the 41, and three backs.
Sam Simmonds
In a larger squad, Exeter Chiefs’ Sam Simmonds could have been a useful weapon, but his exile from England will obviously not help.
With so many loose forwards playing at the top of their game during the Guinness Six Nations, Gatland will likely opt for current internationals.
With the likes of locks Tadhg Beirne, Iain Henderson and Maro Itoje also able to operate at No6, the luxury back row options are likely to be the ones to miss out in Gatland’s refined squad.
Billy Vunipola
Sacrifices will have to be made in the back row, and form may be the deciding factor with Billy Vunipola’s omission after a sluggish Six Nations. Though it would make sense to drop an openside, it would be cruel for one of Justin Tipuric, Tom Curry or player of the Six Nations Hamish Watson to miss out. With Taulupe Faletau the nailed on starter at No8, and CJ Stander able to cover No8 and flanker (and even Tom Curry to do the same), Vunipola is the favourite to miss out.
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Dan Biggar and Finn Russell
Even though Owen Farrell can shift to inside centre, it would be strange if Gatland took more than three fly-halves to South Africa. In fact, in 2013 he only took two, which may be his course of action this year as well, with Stuart Hogg serving as a backup No10.
The England captain is more or less assured of a place, meaning Johnny Sexton, Dan Biggar and Finn Russell will battle for two more places. The denouement of Sexton’s Six Nations may have saved him, and even though he will be 36 come the Test series, a strong showing in the Heineken Champions Cup will make a convincing case to go.
Russell provides an attacking threat that the other three do not, which helps him, but that is not necessarily Gatland’s style. Neither he nor Biggar featured in the Tests four years ago against the All Blacks and they could miss out completely this time around.
Duhan van der Merwe
Versatility is key in a small squad, meaning players like Liam Williams, who is able to cover fullback and the wing, and George North, who has proven he can slot in at outside centre and the wing, are more valuable.
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Meanwhile, wingers Jonny May, Anthony Watson and Josh Adams have been favourites to be picked for a number of years now, as is the guaranteed selection Hogg at fullback.
That leaves a contest between Scotland’s Duhan van der Merwe to face the country of his birth and Wales’ Louis Rees-Zammit. The former provides power and the latter pace to crudely compare the two, and though van der Merwe may have finished the Six Nations as top try scorer, the Welshman seems to have the X-factor at the moment and may just shade him.
LIONS SQUAD: After a seismic Guinness Six Nations, Josh Raisey 👨💻 tries to predict the full, 41-man squad that @lionsofficial kingpin Warren Gatland is likely to name this May. https://t.co/6Ob8ZjXkIW
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) March 22, 2021
Comments on RugbyPass
Je suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
1 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusades , you can keep going.
1 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
25 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
25 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
25 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
25 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
11 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
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