What the Wallabies need to do to beat the All Blacks
Reflecting back on last year’s series, halfback Will Genia highlighted a lack of trust in the Wallabies new defence system for the implosion in the first Bledisloe last year in Sydney.
“When we reviewed this game we went back and that was certainly the case, guys weren’t sticking their roles and because guys were hesitant in terms of trusting the system, we were all over the shop, guys were sitting back, guys were double defending, guys not chasing on the inside, just defending out of the system because of the lack of trust,” he told Rugby.com.au.
“It certainly showed and it was a very poor performance.”
The Wallabies found themselves down 54-6 before a spirited second-half performance saw a 54-34 final scoreline. The backs, in particular, had a poor defensive outing, with 17 missed tackles between Curtis Rona, Kurtley Beale, Samu Kerevi and Henry Speight alone.
The second test saw a much-improved performance with a backline re-jig, before a win at home in the third test with only Beale from the aforementioned in the lineup.
Looking back at the lessons from games two and three, what can the Wallabies take into the opening Bledisloe encounter this weekend, and how can they beat the All Blacks?
Defence-first selections
Simply making the right selections will increase the Wallabies chances of winning, by valuing defensive stability over attacking firepower.
The Wallabies competitiveness immediately improved last year after bringing in veteran centre Tevita Kuridrani, fullback/wing Dane Haylett-Petty and Reece Hodge at the expense of Henry Speight, Samu Kerevi and Curtis Rona.
It seems that Cheika is learning from last year, by cutting Rona and Naivalu from the final squad, looking for more defensive capabilities. Although keeping Billy Meakes around might have been a good option – he was one of the best defensive midfielders in Australia this year.
The biggest problem they have is who will play 13, with first choice centres Kerevi and Kuridrani out injured. That might be a blessing in disguise as Beale, Kerevi and Kuridrani filled three of the top four rankings in missed tackles for centres in Super Rugby this year.
Beale is integral to the Wallabies attacking plans, so despite defensive frailties, he will always be picked when available. Which means he needs a solid defender outside him to cover.
There is no current answer that will solve the centre problem with great confidence, so whoever they pick will be targeted.
Hodge looms as a makeshift experiment. Dane Haylett-Petty needs to be picked on one wing, but Marika Koroibete is a questionable defender on the other side. In an ideal world, Hodge would be picked on the left wing.
Another reason why the Wallabies need defensively strong wingers instead of speedy finishers is the All Blacks pack possesses more dynamic athletes who roam the flanks. The pack is purpose-built for phase patterns where edge forwards get mismatches. Codie Taylor and Liam Squire will present danger on the edge, and faced with one-on-one matchups with Koroibete, will be one area the All Blacks go to frequently.
If the Wallabies want as little disruption as possible, Matt Toomua is really the only straight swap option at centre without putting other guys out of position. However, handling defensive duties one position wider is harder than it seems. With Goodhue set to start, this presents a more containable matchup for Toomua, who has less speed than a player like Rieko Ioane.
They could also move Folau to centre, Beale to fullback so Toomua can start at 12 in a three-player switch, but this will risk disrupting much of the attacking pattern and Folau’s experience at centre is very limited.
Cheika will probably go with Hodge at centre and Koroibete on the left wing, but Toomua directly into 13 with no other disruptions could be the best answer.
Possession vs. Territorial Strategy
The Wallabies win in the third test last year was built on the back of defence – they missed just nine tackles in the match, and heaped pressure on the All Blacks with nearly 60% possession. The lower defensive workload kept their system stable and it took a mammoth weight of possession to finally break down the All Blacks.
Sam Cane was forced to make 27 tackles, and missed four others. The Wallabies were relatively fresh, making just 90 tackles in the match to the All Blacks 152.
Ball control is probably the best method of play against the All Blacks, the longer they are without it the longer it is before they score. It isn’t a foolproof method – they don’t need loads of possession to win – but it will go a long way to keeping the game close.
Outside of exit situations deep inside the 22, the Wallabies can’t afford to aimlessly kick possession away from their own half, which they have done in the past. They kick too much from their own 40, often ending up with minimal net gains and handing over possession.
Foley and Beale can be guilty of kicking too many ‘settlers’ when the pattern becomes disorganised. Genia should handle most of the kicking duties, and these have to be contestable with aerial specialists Folau and Haylett-Petty available to chase.
The third test was a blueprint for the Wallabies, especially the second half. Control the clock and maintain possession for as long as possible, building pressure for the likes of Beale and Folau to work on the back of.
Set-piece
One area where the All Blacks are light years ahead of the Wallabies is set-piece attack, especially inside the 5, where mismatches are identified, created and exploited by the backs. Often you don’t need to break a tackle completely, just win the ‘contact’ being so close to the try line. This could be through brute force or using shifty footwork to get through an ineffective tackle.
The All Blacks get a high number of attacking opportunities inside this area of the field often by turning down penalty kicks in favour of scrums or kicking to the corner. New Zealand Super Rugby sides, in particular, have come accustomed to playing for seven points rather than three and it has ultimately paid dividends.
Australian sides still follow a three points-first approach, which has repeatedly failed them over the last two years. Kicking for nearly every available three, especially long-range shots, hasn’t been enough when your opposition are continually playing for seven at the other end.
There has to be a paradigm shift in thinking to play for more tries, especially early in games. You need to score 30-40 points to beat the All Blacks on a regular basis. They scored an average of 35.8 per game last year. You can’t rely solely on the odd occasion they have an off night.
Changing this approach will give the Wallabies more opportunities inside the All Blacks 22, where they could adopt some of the same principles.
The All Blacks exploit mismatches they want to target, with a higher percentage of back plays. The pushover or trapping at eight’s feet for a scrum penalty is a tactic used too much by Australian sides, wasting the extra space backs have to use.
In the second test last year, the All Blacks erased a 17-point deficit, scoring three of their tries from set-piece five metres out. The smallest defender, Will Genia, was isolated one-on-one against a much bigger man twice, and Aaron Smith was too elusive for Michael Hooper one-on-one.
Genia didn’t shy away from the assignment, he was just physically overpowered by Rieko Ioane and Beauden Barrett. Last year with the diminutive Damian McKenzie as a fullback, how many times did the Wallabies isolate him one-on-one with their best weapon Folau? Not enough, if at all.
The simple yet effective ability to create mismatches in small or wider spaces separates the All Blacks attacking prowess from others.
The Wallabies have to show more attacking intent and use the set-piece platform to create isolation mismatches with their best athlete – Israel Folau.
The Big Three – Pocock, Genia and Folau
The three most important men in this test are Pocock, Genia and Folau. Their defensive trump card, their playmaker and their strike weapon.
Pocock will take away about 10 points off the opposition score if he continues to do what he did against Ireland.
Will Genia has been the best playmaker of any of the Australian sides in Super Rugby this year, and must be given a high number of plays from set-piece as the primary creator. Any play designs that include Genia as the decision maker and Folau as one of the options have to be deployed with efficiency.
Israel Folau finished the third test last year with 17 carries, the most he had all year in a man-of-the-match performance. He is the best-attacking weapon the Wallabies have, so getting him as many touches as possible will go along way to winning this match. There could be too much of a focus of giving Folau aerial contests when he is just as effective as a damaging ball runner.
Can they do it?
Can they win? Yes. Will they? Unlikely.
The Wallabies are capable of winning as they proved in Brisbane. But in order for them to regularly push the All Blacks, they need to get a lot smarter about how they play the game. Playing conservative and under-utilising their best players will end up failing them again.
Clinical and innovative play hasn’t been a hallmark of this side under Cheika, and he hasn’t produced any meaningful results in three years. They will be up against it but need to start taking strategic steps in the right direction, which might not be possible with current management.
A large portion of the rugby world will be hoping they can prove otherwise to make this a meaningful fixture (for at least the Australian public) once again.
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Comments on RugbyPass
Don’t pay a blind bit of notice to Lukie… he likes the sound of his own voice and is always looking for something controversial to say. He has been banging on about Leinster's defensive system all season like he knows something Jacques Nienebar doesn’t. Which is the reason why he didn’t apply for the job obviously
14 Go to commentsWho got the benefits out of Schmidt, Lowe, Aki, and Gibson Park?
14 Go to commentsWhat’s new its a common occurrence, just the journos out there expecting a negative spin. The outcome will be beneficial to jordie and Leinster. The home grown lads hav got some experience to step up to and be more competitive, that or spend the 6 months keeping the bench warm.
14 Go to commentsI’m all for speeding up the game. But can we be certain that the slowness of the game contributed to fans walking out? I’m not so sure. Super rugby largely suffered from most fans only being able to, really, follow the games played in their own time zone. So at least a third of the fan base wasn’t engaged at any point in time. As a Saffer following SA teams in the URC - I now watch virtually every European game played on the weekend. In SR, I wouldn’t be bothered to follow the games being played on the other side of the world, at weird hours, if my team wasn’t playing. I now follow the whole tournament and not just the games in my time zone. Second, with New Zealand teams always winning. It’s like formula one. When one team dominates, people lose interest. After COVID, with SA leaving and Australia dipping in form, SR became an even greater one horse race. Thats why I think Japan’s league needs to get in the mix. The international flavor of those teams could make for a great spectacle. But surely if we believe that shaving seconds off lost time events in rugby is going to draw fans back, we should be shown some figures that supports this idea before we draw any major conclusions. Where are the stats that shows these changes have made that sort of impact? We’ve measured down to the average no. Of seconds per game. Where the measurement of the impact on the fanbase? Does a rugby “fan” who lost interest because of ball in play time suddenly have a revived interest because we’ve saved or brought back into play a matter of seconds or a few minutes each game? I doubt it. I don’t thinks it’s even a noticeable difference to be impactful. The 20 min red card idea. Agreed. Let’s give it a go. But I think it’s fairer that the player sent off is substituted and plays no further part in the game as a consequence.
1 Go to commentsThose are pretty good draws for the two top Aussie teams. I certainly wouldn't want my Chiefs to have a quarter final in Brisbane. None of the top teams will want the Crusaders.
1 Go to commentsHonestly, I am a bit lost here …. Ireland - RSA was (at least in my opinion) perhaps (from a purely technical / rugby-skills-show point of view) the pinnacle of the RWC2023 - almost flawless playing (putting aside the kicking of RSA which was the difference between the two teams), rugby at it’s very best …. if I were a Bok and after the game some Irish lads came around saying “see you in 5 weeks same place”, I definitely wouldn’t have thought of it as being in any way “arrogant”, rather a sort of jolly “if we both continue to play like this, no one could stop us” - besides, few of us fans would have, at that time, been surprised to see the same teams playing on 23 september and 28 october 2023 ….. well, we all know Ireland chose to hit a slump to keep the QF curse alive …..
135 Go to commentsThere’s value gleaned from having an All Black star running and training with your team. How many games he starts (or even where he plays in the backline) will be decided on a week by week basis based on the needs for that week. But the overall learning and growth for all concerned, I’d think, is massively beneficial. Especially for Irish players.
14 Go to commentsSon, whith just " raw athlete “ , you are able to beat “ better rugby players “ by 74 points…. May be England should recruit in athletics….
1 Go to commentsPffft. It’s not a one-way street bud and Irish teams don’t seem to have had an issue taking kiwi players previously.
14 Go to commentsParticularly great to have captain Scott Barrett back after going off last week for the Crusaders. Codie Taylor a real leader and mighty Tamaiti Williams join Fletcher Newell in the front row. Those 2 will make a big difference. Great bench with the likes of Tom Christie, Jamie Hannah etc who are playing well. Should be a great derby.
1 Go to commentsDoes a blitz defence not have a weekness against a well-placed grubber kick, perhaps angled cleverly. All the defence is up and the full-back can only cover so much ground. Thoughts?
28 Go to commentsWhile Iose is destructive in the Canes set-up, he is not big for an international 8 and could struggle against the top teams. With his speed, he could be developed into a seven but, as Ben points out, he doesn’t show a scavenging game with the Canes or make dominating tackles. Sotutu has shown a step up this year and attitude plus motivation seems to be the big areas of growth. Deserves another AB shot imo.
3 Go to commentsNaholo is my only question mark for this side. He wasn’t the only one who had a forgettable game against the Brumbies but he was passive, defensively poor and generally lacked energy. Needs to get a whole lot busier for me. I would have liked to see Sullivan on that wing with Higgins on the bench (if staying with a 6-2 as BeegMike points out on here!)
3 Go to commentsWell, I am sure that Eben said exactly what he meant to say, exactly how he meant to say it. Does he strike you as a man that doesn't know arrogance when he sees it. He should know it because he has shaken the arrogance out of many foes before.
135 Go to commentsPls get it into your thick arrogant heads that the final was played by two Southern Hemisphere teams. The best against the best and that Argentina was just unlucky otherwise non of the Northetn Hemisphere teams would have seen the light of day.
135 Go to commentsAs long as New Zealand youth are involved in sport they are passionate for, and are well supported, it’s all good. I love league as well as rugby. NRL clubs have long since scouted the First 15 competitions, the NH and Japan scout super rugby and NPC. It’s a miracle there’s any players left for the all blacks to pick from.
5 Go to commentsI'm a Bok fan, so I don't say this lightly, but he is one of my all time favourite players. I am really going to miss watching him play. Thanks for many great memories. You are a true legend of the game.
3 Go to commentsBest way to deal with all of this is to play another game.
135 Go to commentsIt’s 12-15 games Luke. Ringrose has barely played in 2024 and Henshaw and Keenan have also been out for spells in the same time period. There are always injuries and for younger players to play with the likes of Barrett will be great for them. It’s just looking for negatives where there are none.
14 Go to commentsAndy Goode pushing his own agenda with very dubious considerations on refereeing performances. Luke Pearce speaking a bit of French doesn’t make him a good and adequate referee for the Champions Cup final; his latest refereeing performance in particular was not so great.
4 Go to comments