Pre-match analysis - England vs France
With 10 of the last 15 fixtures going the way of England, as well as France not tasting victory at Twickenham in the Guinness Six Nations since 2005, the balance of power in ‘Le Crunch’ currently resides north of the Channel, but there are few fixtures that still raise the hackles in the same way this one does.
A rivalry built on distinct cultural differences, as well as cultural similarities on and around the rugby pitch, national pride is at the core of that anticipation. Yet, form can count for little in such affairs, with a tense atmosphere and bubbling emotions more than capable of swinging the outcome on the pitch.
That said, England will go into the contest full of confidence after defeating reigning Six Nations champions Ireland in Dublin, whilst France will feel dejected, having been well on their way to upsetting Wales in Paris, before proceeding to shoot themselves in the foot multiple times in an implosion of a second half.
The Coaches
In Eddie Jones and Jacques Brunel, England and France have two of the most experienced international coaches in world rugby, but it is there the similarities seem to end.
Whilst Jones has 30 victories in his 37 tests with England, an impressive win rate of 81%, Brunel has only won three of his 12 games in charge of France, making for a rather paltry success rate of 25%. To be fair to the former Italy head coach, that set of results does include a three-match tour of New Zealand and a victory over England in last year’s Six Nations, but the returns since his hire at the end of 2017 have not been what the French Rugby Federation would have hoped for when they sacked Brunel’s predecessor, Guy Novès.
Brunel and his side may have seen off England in Paris last year, but it’s hard to argue against the coaching advantage falling to England here, especially with the intensity and intelligence of their defensive showing against Ireland, with the growing influence of new defence coach John Mitchell beginning to show.
Advantage: England
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Watch: The England squad in training
The Players
Kyle Sinckler (73) vs Jefferson Poirot (75)
With Uini Atonio out, there is even more pressure for Poirot to deliver this weekend. Up against Sinckler, the French loosehead faces a swiftly improving scrummager and an operator in the loose that is capable of helping England fire in their quest to get over the gain-line. Sinckler impacts the game both as a ball-carrier and as a player capable of shifting the point of contact with soft hands and good distribution. If Poirot can go to work at the scrum and begin to tire the tighthead, he will help France negate Sinckler’s proficient ability in the loose, but the set-piece is no longer the chink in the Englishman’s armour that it used to be.
Advantage: Sinckler
Jamie George (91) vs Guilhem Guirado (82)
If there is one French player who has not deserved Les Bleus’ misfortune over the last few years, it’s their captain, Guirado. The Toulon hooker has been a remarkably consistent performer at a high level in a side which has struggled to replicate the standards he has driven. As for England, George has sparkled at club level with Saracens and performed admirably at international level, providing set-piece security and impressive work rate and conditioning. As well as he has gone, however, hooker is one of the few positions where France might feel they have an advantage in the player head-to-heads.
Advantage: Guirado
Ben Youngs (72) vs Morgan Parra (80)
Two of the better controlling scrum-halves in international rugby, Youngs versus Parra is an intriguing contest at Twickenham on Sunday. Youngs was sublime in Dublin, out-duelling arguably the world’s best in Conor Murray, although with a fair amount of assistance from his wings Jonny May and Jack Nowell on the kick chase. If he can get that same precision from his boot again, as well as the energy and decision-making of his chasers, then England will be on their way to another victory. However, Parra has had success against the England back three before and he is more than capable of exposing any positional naivety or disconnects that England show in the back field.
Advantage: Even
Elliot Daly (74) vs Yoann Huget (80)
A surprising selection from Brunel, moving Huget to full-back, not only because of his fumble in the Wales game, but also the availability of Toulouse’s Thomas Ramos, who has been having an excellent 2018/19 season. Ireland managed to find Daly deep and drag him up on a number of occasions, allowing their chase to occupy the space and win the contested balls, something which Parra, Huget and Camille Lopez will need to do on Sunday, if they are to have any chance of leaving Twickenham with a win. Even if they can do that, it still might not be enough, with Daly once again showing his creative worth last weekend, proving to be the perfect link man with the wings, laying on two of England’s four tries.
Advantage: Daly
Manu Tuilagi (71) vs Geoffrey Doumayrou (81)
Despite still being just 19 years of age, Romain Ntamack dealt well with his international debut last week, showing no signs of being daunted by the additional expectations, but he has found himself replaced by Doumayrou this weekend. The La Rochelle man will now have to go up against the formidable challenge of Tuilagi. Part of England’s success in Dublin was down to how they interchanged Tuilagi and Henry Slade in the midfield, keeping Ireland’s defence guessing as to where Tuilagi would hit the line, and if they do that again this weekend, it’s going to take a lot of composure for Doumayrou to track and deal with. If France move him further out in the defensive line, preferring Mathieu Bastareaud to look after Tuilagi, his task changes to the versatile and hard-to-read Slade.
Advantage: Tuilagi
Key Battlegrounds
Kicking Game
With both Daly and Huget taking up spots at full-back, not to mention France opting for two regular centres on the wings, both teams will be keen to exploit the space through the box-kicking of their nines and the territorial kicking games of Owen Farrell and Lopez. If England can start to lure Damian Penaud and Gaël Fickou up into the defensive line, they will be able to move Huget around and find plenty of grass to kick into. If May and Chris Ashton chase as well again as May and Nowell did against Ireland, England will reap the rewards.
As for France, they will need to keep the ball on a string. May and Ashton are agile and quick, capable of dropping deep if France try to pin the ball in the corners, but by drawing Daly forward to the point where he is rushing to meet the kick and cannot set himself underneath and own the space, they have a good chance of winning the ball back.
Advantage: England
Gain-line
Always a critical component in a game, but this is perhaps France’s greatest hope of success on Sunday. They are a heavyweight team – despite opting to go smaller and more mobile this weekend – built on power carriers who love to break the gain-line and get their side moving forward. If they can find success in this area, which Ireland struggled to do, then they have a chance of rattling the aggressive English defence and negating their impressive line-speed.
For Jones’ side, denying France any kind of quick ball at the contact area will be key to preventing this, so it will require another industrious display from the likes of Mako Vunipola, Mark Wilson and Tom Curry. If they outwork and outsmart France at the breakdown, there’s a good chance they will win the gain-line contest for the second week in a row, with the likes of Billy Vunipoa and Tuilagi capable of getting England moving forward.
Advantage: England
Conclusion
Form doesn’t mean everything in this contest, but equally, coming off two results as contrasting as those ones these teams recorded in the opening round, it seems too big of a gap for France to traverse on Sunday.
England are the better conditioned team, they have settled combinations in a number of positions and there is a balance to the side that hasn’t always been there during Jones’ tenure. The loss of Maro Itoje will hurt, but second row is one of the positions where England have genuinely top-class international depth to call upon.
France are capable of springing the upset, but based on their match against Wales, the conditioning and decision-making struggles among the squad, and the fact that England have home advantage, it’s hard to predict any outcome other than an England win.
England by 14.
Watch: England vs Ireland analysis
Comments on RugbyPass
Why is this dude getting so much coverage? Usually knobs like this get cancelled.
2 Go to commentsWow. What was that? A 3 million word meandering article about what exactly?
1 Go to commentsNice piece of writing. And yes the Sharks pulled a rabbit from the hat and were a little lucky with that penalty try that wasn’t given… however the Sharks (with their resources) should be way more consistent and should be putting teams like Claremont away for breakfast. I expect more from them and hope they kick on now.
8 Go to commentsJust what the Sharks needed to get things going in the right direction Defence on the outside really creates havoc for the whole team and needs to be addressed.
8 Go to commentsWell done guys both teams will be ready to play knockout rugby.
1 Go to commentsSurprised that Ramos isn't starting at 15. But what a squad of galacticos!
2 Go to commentsWhy is it a snub? What journalistic garbage is that? Sure the guy is a great player, but there are plenty of loose forwards and not all of them can be Springboks. Also, I know of no-one who doubts Rassie’s judgment. South Africa has a conveyor belt of loose forwards that just keeps producing, so the competition is intense. I certainly wish him well, but there is no entitlement and there is no snub.
17 Go to commentsSkelton may be brought back for the Wallabies so that would be the only reason that may hinder Wilson. Easily the form, most skilful and game IQ of any Oz 8. Valentini’s best and favourite position is 6, but lineouts may be an issue with Skelton, Valentini and Wilson. Will be interesting what Schmidt goes for but for me Wilson should be picked on form. Schmidt rewards work rate, skill and consistency. All that glitters every so often won’t be in contention. Greely is one of those players that has a knack of making the right decision. A coach is going to love him because he knows week in week out he’s going to get the job done. The second try Greely wasn’t the guy who made the initial break it was Flook, Greely was at the bottom of the ruck when Flook was off along the sideline. Greely got up and made the effort to catch up with play but also read the play nicely and hit the pass from Campbell at pace and then held the pass beautifully to Ryan.
6 Go to commentsSpot on Ben. Dead right. Havili looked great at 10. Easily the highest rugby IQ of any NZ player these days. Getting a kick charged down is a result of getting used to adjusting your depth to the line at 10, which he will sort out with time. But other than that it was an outstanding first effort in that position this year. I think the NZ media has misunderstood this directive from Razor. Havili might rank behind B Barrett this year, but Beuden is 33 this month and won't last much longer. DMaC is great but flaky and not really a test match animal (his efforts in Dunedin versus Aus last year for example). If Razor can't have Mounga, DMaC is too unstructured for Razor (and is just too small for test rugby). Havili will end up our first choice first five, and in partnership with Jodie will be excellent. Two triple threat operators in tandem, and big bodies and tough tacklers to boot. Jordoe will be the ABs goal kicker. I am an Aucklander and Blues (and Warriors) fan, but Havili at 10 is going to be sensational in time… he can be the best first five in the world by the end of this year. No question.
6 Go to commentsSharks deserved to be far further back by the last quarter. Their tackling was awful, their set pieces were disappointing, their defensive organization was poor (especially on the Kok side of the D line), they kept making unnecessary errors, and they never looked like cracking the Clermont defense during those first 60m. Masuku kept them in touch, with some help from the Clermont generosity on penalty opportunities. Agree with the writer of this article. It was belligerence, and ability to raise their pressure game just enough, that turned the last quarter into a Bok-style shutout. Clermont have a reputation of not playing the full 80m, and there was a bit of that for sure. But, quite often when the intensity of a team drops off in the last quarter credit is due to the opponent for tiring them out. At 60m, with the Kok try, you thought that just maybe the game was on. At 70m, with the Mapimpi contribution, one felt that Clermont were fading, while facing a team that would maintain the pressure game through the final whistle. Good win in the end, but the Sharks are still playing way below their potential. And with their resources, and a coach that has had enough time to figure things out, they are running out of excuses.
8 Go to commentsGood riddance
1 Go to commentswel the crusaders were beaten by a queensland reds side that hadnt beaten them at home since 1999 and queensland reds partied like it was 1999
6 Go to commentsHard to disagree with the 5 points - with the exception that Wilson should be a squad member but, depending on the other loose forward selections, is not yet a shoo-in. McReight is. Aussie is looking a lot better this year and JS has some selection options. Also, Havili’s tendency to get caught, charged down is also a liability at times but he seemed focused (mostly) and is definitely a consideration for utility back-up. Still feel Reihana is a better prospect at 1st five for Saders.
6 Go to commentsYeah nah, still not sure on Havili tbh. Even though I’m a Crusaders fan through and through I’d be stunned if Razor considers him after seeing some of the stunning talent coming through up North.
6 Go to commentsThink it was a great defensive performance by Northampton. They didn't have stage fright in the first half, the Nienaber defense smothered them. They limited Leinster to 15-3 in the first half. It could have been over by then. A great try from Leinster in the start of the second half looked to have sealed it. But Byrne missed another conversion. Northampton started trying little kicks behind the Leinster wingers. Leinster messed one and Smith brilliantly made the conversion. Leinster decided to tighten the game after Byrne missed a straight forward penalty. A few errors got NH into the 22 and they scored and converted with a few minutes left. Another brilliant steal from Lawes saw NH have a final attack which was turned over by Conan. A classic semi final. World record attendance of 82,300. Leinsters 3 week preparation warranted for this one.
1 Go to commentsJust came back from the game and the atmosphere was amazing. Players stayed afterwards for more than a hour to sign stuff and take photos with fans. Great day out.
8 Go to commentsA great game. The Sharks without Etsebeth are a shadow of the team compared to when he plays. The limitations of Some of the expensive Sharks players are being exposed. Credit to Clermont for some exhilaration play at times.
8 Go to comments100% Mr Owens. But who would want to be a referee.? It must be the most difficult job on earth.
1 Go to commentsStarts to be overdone and oversold this systematic SA narrative…which nevertheless has the merit in this case to recognise blatant refereeing mistakes in their favor
8 Go to commentsNice article. Shades of Steinbeck. They can win the final if they take the game seriously; but only if they take it seriously.
8 Go to comments