Pivac's honeymoon period will be shorter than Ed Griffiths' return to Saracens if Wales fluff their lines
Bonhomie and heartfelt platitudes have been the order of the day in this Six Nations build-up for Wayne Pivac, but he is about to find out that a welcome in the hillsides is reserved only for those coaches who can provide a big ‘W’ at the final whistle. His honeymoon period will be shorter than Ed Griffiths’ return to Saracens if Wales fluff their lines in front of 70,000 fans under the Principality Stadium roof.
Thankfully the portents bode well.
Wales have never lost to Italy on home turf and while the 18-18 draw in 2006 was received with barely concealed disbelief, Italy are winless in the Six Nations since 2015, so a victory over the World Cup semi-finalists would set off the sort of seismic shock waves last seen in Pompeii, so what can we make of his first roll of the dis?
I feel the need, the need for speed…
Wales now have two viable back threes who could scorch the earth. On Saturday, it’s the turn of Leigh Halfpenny, Johnny McNicholl and Josh Adams to audition for permanent roles but conceivably the following weekend in Dublin, it could be Louis Rees-Zammitt, Liam Williams and George North lining-up against Ireland. In anyone’s book, that’s a giddy array of talent and below that, you’d assume if fit Owen Lane, Hallam Amos and the in-form Steff Evans could do a job for Wales.
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WATCH: Saracens centre Nick Tompkins looks set to make his Wales debut after being named on the bench for Saturday’s Guinness Six Nations opener against Italy.
The hope is the 10-12-13 axis can utilise such flair by playing expansive rugby. McNicholl, particularly, has looked like a Test player playing regional rugby for some time and has been name checked by coaches as looking ‘razor sharp’ in training. Don’t forget that North, who has stepped inside to 13 as he tries out for his ‘second career’, has tormented the Azzurri in recent years with eight tries in his last five appearances. He will know the message is writ-large, about getting more key involvements on the ball. With Jonathan Davies watching from the commentary box, we will find out if the big North Walian can replicate his esteemed team-mate.
Will we see him putting boot to ball as an exit strategy? How well will he marshal the exposed 13 channel and how will his communication hold up in a different role? The 91-cap wing will know that Nick Tompkins, a far more experienced player in the 13 shirt, will be chomping at the bit to show that Granny Enid’s boy can pass muster at Test level.
Josh Navidi will be missed but Wales have options
The news Josh Navidi has a hamstring injury was met with glum faces from around the Wales camp yesterday. As a jack-of-all-trades, the Cardiff Blue is a mightily useful addition the backrow mix and was sorely missed in the World Cup semi-final. He can play the power game, hit the rucks, spoil opposition ball and tackle himself raw but one man’s loss is another man’s gain and Ross Moriarty will be desperate to make sure he clings on as a key cog in the Wales 23.
Even before Navidi was injured, I thought Navidi was destined to make an impact from the bench, with the raw dynamism of Wainwright preferred. The Dragon best complements the prodigiously-gifted, duo Taulupe Faletau and Justin Tipuric and as a trio, they’ll need to click because the backrow is the Italian’s most effective area and in Braam Steyn, Jake Polledri and Sebastien Negri able to match their Welsh counterparts with brimstone and fire. Wales have another option in Cory Hill who has shown he can play on the blindside but it is the fiercely competitive Moriarty who has most to gain from Navidi’s absence.
The scrum-half battle is bubbling away nicely…
We don’t know the extent of Gareth Davies’ groin injury but we can rest assured the West Walian is cursing his luck knowing that it has gifted his old sparring partner, Rhys Webb, with an early chance to assert his authority on proceedings, probably on a tiring Italian pack.
For Tomos Williams, it will be only his sixth start in 17 appearances, and there is a desire from the Welsh management to see if he can influence games from the whistle, not in his familiar guise of impact sub. Knowing Webb is on the bench could unsettle the No 9 from Treorchy or serve to motivate him, but either way, Pivac needs to know how he’ll cope. If they don’t switch halfbacks together, Webb could share the pitch with someone who knows his game instinctively, in Dan Biggar and how that relationship reconnects will be duly noted by Pivac ahead of the Ireland game.
Stephen Jones’ early SOS a silver lining for Wales
It would be hard to underestimate just how much Stephen Jones learnt about the Welsh squad during an intense six weeks at the World Cup. While Pivac performs the management duties, Jones is very much the hands-on tracksuit coach and how the mechanics of the backline operates is down to him.
There has been an onus on not pulling apart so much of the solid foundations laid by the Gatland era, so during this Championship we may see a Gatland-Pivac hybrid style of play but if space is sought and the offload count rises, signature Jones plays may start to emerge which should give us an indication of where Wales’ game plan is going to differ to the previous era.
Jones is already hugely familiar with his new management team. A former teammate and close friend, Martyn Williams, is on hand as a sounding board while Sam Warburton offers youthful energy and at 31, an ear in the camp to sense the mood. On paper, at least, it looks like Pivac has assembled a shrewd bunch of lieutenants to take Wales forward and Jones is front, middle and centre of that group.
Places up for grabs at the coal face
The front row is one of the less glamorous environments in Test rugby. Little heralded but you know if it isn’t functioning correctly soon enough. While Ken Owens looks a key tenet of the front row, who binds either side him at scrum-time is less sure. Wyn Jones overtook Rob Evans at loosehead ahead of the World Cup, but he’ll know that the handling skills of Evans and the explosive carrying game of Rhys Carre will mean a dropping of standards is verboten.
On the other side, Dillon Lewis has to ensure the stability of the scrum to compliment his breakdown work and energetic carries in the tight knowing Leon Brown, whose scrummaging has improved infinitely, and WillGriff John – a man who looks like he’d be equally at home lugging Atlas Stones – is breathing down his neck. This while first-choice Tomas Francis convalesces from the shoulder injury incurred when tackling behemoth, Duane Vermeulen in Japan. Jonathan Humphreys will have his wrench out ready to tinker, and will be eager to know what he’s working with. Tadhg Furlong and Cian Healy await.
Comments on RugbyPass
Also, looking at the data from last year, it seemed like by far the two biggest predictors of success were (1) kicking more than your opponents, and (2) having a higher rate of line-out wins than your opponents. I haven’t gone through the stats this year with a fine tooth comb, but the increase in kicks per game and the increase in tries from lineouts would suggest that these two metrics are only getting more important. England’s move away from a kick-heavy game to win against Ireland was seen by some as evidence that running rugby is on the rise. Alternatively it could be taken as evidence that if one team kicks more, and the other team wins more lineouts (as England did) a match is bound to be close to a draw.
2 Go to commentsI have been finding it odd that points per 22 entry has become such a talked about stat, given that your points per entry can be driven down by having more entries. These data would seem to confirm that it isn’t a useful metric, or at any rate is less useful than total entries.
2 Go to commentsI think the last two games England have played is some of their best rugby they have played under Borthwick. There has been a lot more attacking instinct and as a reward have created some well worked tries. Ollie Lawrence is a good foil at 12 as he offers the hard direct lines whilst the rest of the backs can play open. As much as it pains me to say but I do hope England keep playing this way. On a side note my favourite try of the weekend was Lorenzo Pani’s for the nice loop play that put him away and his finish was excellent. Thanks as always Nick.
39 Go to commentsMost exciting player on the planet right now, worth the price of a ticket.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith and Ireland live rent free in Safa’s heads. Their comments only triggers because its true. If the Boks had dismantled a 14 man AB’s, then there would be more respect. But they didnt, in fact quite the opposite, the 14 man NZ were clearly better. And the Bok have always been ordinary between RWC’s, thats why their supporters are now ‘only RWC’s matter’. They know thats BS. Its BS to both AB’s and Bok’s due to their history. But now its all the Safas have. Now we’ll hear excuses when they lose “oh we didnt have all our players available, the ABs/France/Eng/Irel were at full strength”, forgetting for a minute that its because of their own dumb policy. Oh well, makes a change from blaming ‘cheating refs’.
23 Go to commentsNo Nick, they did not, in fact, justify any ‘probables’ label. At no time did they seriously compete for the championship. Ireland led from start to finish and in the end, as a result of glaring referee errors, were never under serious pressure to lose their crown.
39 Go to commentsMoney for him, and his family, has been the sole motivator since he signed for Queensland aged 17. Why else sign for Melbourne. Tupou is poorly advised. If he’d stayed and developed in NZ he would have had a long Test career. If Leinster offer him a few more coins than he’s currently earning, he’s goneburger.
4 Go to commentsFinn. No one would say Ford had played well up until the last game. One standout performance in 5 is hardly in form . It should be a given that a 10 will control play . Not in Fords case be praised for suddenly doing so. Where was he against Scotland ,Italy. The pundits were saying how far away from play he was standing and one even said that the Ireland game was his last chance saloon to perform . Not exactly top form catching anyones eye. If he can play like this game after game then great. Keep him in . But after 90 odd caps we all know he just doesnt keep it going . By all means keep him there but the issue is that Borthwick will persist even when he plays poorly. Which is more often than not. Thats why i am concerned that Smith ,despite fab form , cannot get a game at his preferred spot. Can you imagine Ford at full back .
5 Go to commentsI do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
6 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
39 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
2 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
4 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to commentsFinn Russell logic: “World” = 4 countries. Ireland may be at or near the top. FR’s bigger concern should be he and his fellow Scots (incl. the Bloemfontein ones) sliding back down to below top 10
42 Go to commentsMind games have begun. Ireland learned their lesson after saying they could beat England with 13 players or whatever. Still, if they win at Loftus, that would be impressive - final frontier etc.
58 Go to comments$950k for a Prop that isn’t fit enough to play 10 mins of rugby? Surely there is someone better to replace Big Mike with
4 Go to commentsFour Kiwis in that backline. A solid statement on the lack of invention, risk-taking and joy in the NH game; game of attrition and head- banging tedium. Longterm medical problems aplenty in the future!
6 Go to commentsGood article, I learnt quite a lot. A big sliding door moment was in the mid 00s when they rejected Steve Anderson's long term transformation and he wrote Ireland's strategy instead.
2 Go to comments