Certainties, probables, possibles and wild cards: Who will Ian Foster name in the first All Blacks squad of the year?
Ian Foster will name his first All Blacks squad of the year on Monday evening, having watched New Zealand’s finest go hammer and tongs for the past seventeen weeks.
With just six tests played last year due to the impacts of the global pandemic, 2021 presents itself as an opportunity for Foster to really start afresh and begin the rebuild following a third-place finish at the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan.
36 men are set to be included in Monday’s squad – but a late string of injuries to Ofa Tu’ungafasi and Anton Lienert-Brown have complicated things while a number of men are nearing a return from injury but might be lacking match fitness. As such, don’t be surprised if Foster does decide to increase that number up a little bit and bring in a few extra men to cover some of the temporarily walking wounded.
Which of New Zealand’s players are guaranteed selection, who will be close to the squad but perhaps not be feeling certain of their selection, and who could be an outside chance of representing the All Blacks in their upcoming series with Tonga and Fiji?
Hookers
Guaranteed: Codie Taylor, Dane Coles
Probable: Asafo Aumua
Possible: Samisoni Taukei’aho
Foster will likely stick with the same trio that was used in 2020 but expect Hurricanes tyro Asafo Aumua to clock up considerably more miles this year as the All Blacks look to transition to a future without Dane Coles.
Chiefs rake Samisoni Taukei’aho is one of the most dynamic ball carriers in New Zealand but will likely still be considered too much of a liability at lineout time.
Props
Guaranteed: Nepo Laulala, Karl Tu’inukuafe, Tyrel Lomax
Probable: Angus Ta’avao, George Bower
Possible: Joe Moody, Alex Hodgman, Aidan Ross, Ethan de Groot
Here’s where things get interesting. Joe Moody and Ofa Tuungafasi, last year’s first-choice pairing, are likely to both be unavailable for the majority of the series which might cause a few headaches for Foster and co. Neither Karl Tu’inukuafe nor Tyrel Lomax are complete packages but will likely retain their spots thanks to an absence of options while Angus Ta’avao could earn a re-call, given there aren’t any tighthead props banging down the selection door right now.
George Bower is all but a certainty to take over from Moody in much the same way as he has done for the Crusaders this year while it’s a toss between Alex Hodgman, Aidan Ross and Ethan de Groot for the final loosehead spot. Ross has been the most consistent throughout the season while Hodgman earned his All Blacks debut last year but hasn’t necessarily kicked on this season. 22-year-old de Groot probably has the highest ceiling but was monstered by Nepo Laulala in the Trans-Tasman final.
Highlanders prop Ethan de Groot has one more chance to impress the All Blacks selectors ahead of Monday's squad announcement in tonight's Super Rugby Trans-Tasman final – but he has some competition. #SuperRugbyTT #BLUvHIG #AllBlacks
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Locks
Guaranteed: Samuel Whitelock, Scott Barrett, Patrick Tuipulotu, Brodie Retallick
Probable: Tupou Vaa’i
Possible: Mitchell Dunshea
The All Blacks have four experienced second-rowers that will likely all be called upon to clock up some minutes in July and it’s likely they’ll opt for a fifth – simply because it would be impossible to leave out last year’s big mover, Tupou Vaa’i, after a storming second season with the Chiefs.
Mitchell Dunshea is the next cab off the ranks, cementing himself ahead of Quinten Strange at the Crusaders, while Pari Pari Parkinson will turn out for the Maori All Blacks after making his return from injury for the Highlanders this year. Sam Darry at the Blues could be one for the future.
Loose forwards
Guaranteed: Dalton Papalii, Hoskins Sotutu
Probable: Ardie Savea, Shannon Frizell, Akira Ioane, Luke Jacobson
Possible: Du’Plessis Kirifi, Tom Robinson, Ethan Blackadder, Cullen Grace
Like the front row, injuries in the loose forwards could force Foster to make a few changes for July. Captain Sam Cane will certainly be absent while Shannon Frizell is nearing a return to fitness – but won’t have any opportunities to play before the upcoming tests. Ardie Savea, meanwhile, limped off against the Reds last weekend but is a sure thing if fit.
Dalton Papalii and Hoskins Sotutu have been superb for the Blues this year and should both get some good opportunities for the All Blacks this season while Akira Ioane’s absence from the Maori squad seemingly assures his place in the national team.
After missing out in 2020 thanks to another injury-affected season, Luke Jacobson has stormed back into action this year and will likely go to war with Sotutu for the No 8 jersey.
If the All Blacks want a third openside flanker or need a replacement for Savea, Du’Plessis Kirifi will likely get the nod while the trio of Tom Robinson, Ethan Blackadder and Cullen Grace are vying for one spot in the squad. Robinson has versatility, Blackadder has form and Grace is the incumbent.
Halfbacks
Guaranteed: Aaron Smith, Brad Weber
Probable: N/A
Possible: TJ Perenara, Finlay Christie, Mitchell Drummond, Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi
Fairly straightforward here. Aaron Smith and Brad Weber are the incumbents and TJ Perenara isn’t eligible for selection – but dispensation could be granted at the last moment.
With just six matches in last year's test calendar, new head coach Ian Foster had little time to really stamp his mark on the #AllBlacks. That's all set to change in 2021, with a bumper year ahead of the NZ national side.
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Assuming Perenara isn’t a goer, then Finlay Christie is the next cab off the ranks and pipped Mitchell Drummond for the bench spot in the South team in last year’s North v South clash. Drummond, however, has represented the All Blacks once before.
Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi hasn’t had a great year, playing negligible minutes for the Chiefs, but maybe the selectors still want to persist with the 26-year-old? Was he overlooked by Chiefs coach Clayton McMillan for the Maori All Blacks altogether, in favour of Bryn Hall and Sam Nock, or has he been called into the All Blacks?
First fives
Guaranteed: Richie Mo’unga, Beauden Barrett
Probable: N/A
Possible: N/A
Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett will fight for the starting flyhalf berth over the coming months and with Damian McKenzie also a certainty to make the squad, there’s no need for a third No 10 option – especially given Otere Black is heading offshore and none of the other candidates have set the world alight.
Centres
Guaranteed: Rieko Ioane
Probable: Anton Lienert-Brown, David Havili
Possible: Braydon Ennor, Peter Umaga-Jensen, Quinn Tupaea, Ngani Laumape
Anton Lienert-Brown will be unavailable for at least some of the July series but Foster and his fellow selectors may keep the Chiefs talisman in the squad regardless. Rieko Ioane has continued to play in the midfield for the Blues and is the only real certainty for selection while David Havili is nursing a small injury but will likely get the call-up if fit.
Ngani Laumape is heading offshore – right when a spot at No 12 beckons for the departing Hurricane thanks to the absences of Lienert-Brown and Jack Goodhue.
Braydon Ennor has made limited appearances for the Crusaders since returning from injury but will likely be persevered with while Peter Umaga-Jensen earned a solitary cap last year but has been used primarily off the bench for the Hurricanes. Quinn Tupaea isn’t up to international standard yet but with so many options injured or undercooked, maybe he’s the man for the job?
Outside backs
Guaranteed: Jordie Barrett, Damian McKenzie, Will Jordan, Sevu Reece
Probable: Leicester Fainga’anuku
Possible: George Bridge, Salesi Rayasi, Jona Nareki
Wild card: Zarn Sullivan
With Caleb Clarke likely to return next year (or possibly later in the season), the All Blacks won’t go too ham with their outside back selections.
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Jordie Barrett, Will Jordan and Damian McKenzie can all play fullback (as can Beauden Barrett and David Havili), but the former two might also find themselves clocking up some minutes on the wings. Leicester Fainga’anuku but be close to a certainty thanks to his solid performance on the wing and in the midfield for the Crusaders.
George Bridge is nearing full fitness which could see him slot straight back onto the left wing in Clarke’s absences. Otherwise, it’s likely that one of Jona Nareki or Salesi Rayasi will get the call-up – but Foster may not deem the young wings ready for the international stage just yet.
What about Blues fullback Zarn Sullivan? The 20-year-old somewhat surprisingly wasn’t named in the Maori All Blacks squad for their upcoming series with Samoa. Dan Carter, Aaron Cruden and Beauden Barrett were all 21 when they earned their first caps for New Zealand so it wouldn’t be completely out of the question for Sullivan to follow a similar trajectory.
Likely 36-man All Blacks squad
Hookers: Codie Taylor, Dane Coles, Asafo Aumua
Props: Karl Tu’inukuafe, George Bower, Aidan Ross, Nepo Laulala, Tyrel Lomax, Angus Ta’avao
Locks: Samuel Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Scott Barrett, Patrick Tuipulotu, Tupou Vaa’i
Loose forwards: Akira Ioane, Dalton Papalii, Hoskins Sotutu, Luke Jacobson, Ethan Blackadder, Ardie Savea/Du’Plessis Kirifi, Shannon Frizell/Tom Robinson,
Halfbacks: Aaron Smith, Brad Weber, TJ Perenara/Finlay Christie
First fives: Richie Mo’unga, Beauden Barrett
Midfield: Rieko Ioane, David Havili, Braydon Ennor, Anton Lienert-Brown/Peter Umaga-Jensen
Outside backs: Jordie Barrett, Damian McKenzie, Will Jordan, Sevu Reece, Leicester Fainga’anuku, George Bridge, Jona Nareki
Comments on RugbyPass
Yeah nah he comes across as a funny bloke, but that stopped abruptly after the Nutcracker Prince debacle✋
1 Go to commentsAt this point I can’t watch him without thinking he’s a dirty slimebag. He should have been banned for the same amount of time that Quinn was out. It took Tupaea near on a fricking year to get fit enough to play again and his leg will never be the same. The other crap thing is that he was at ABs level and now he has to claw his way back there when he could have had several games under his belt.
4 Go to commentsThe Black Ferns 7’s have been without Captain Sarah Hirini now since Dec 23 in Dubai where she suffered a bad ACL injury - hopefully she is on the road to recovery for Madrid and Paris. Now also have Tyler King and Shiray kaka on the Injured List but the Team still found a way to win in Singapore and claim the overall Title.
1 Go to commentsUtter grub, hope he gets his leg broken. Shocking he is still playing after intentionally breaking quinn tupaeas knee
4 Go to commentsGreat to see NZ 7s teams finally coming into form and playing at the level that is expected of them.
2 Go to commentsChief Cheapshot on the market again.
4 Go to commentsCrusaders went all in to buy Hotham and Kemara staight from Hamilton Boys. Then they picked up Reihana and Hohepa; all have been dropped for superstar Havili, who is a very good fullback, that’s it. Ennor and Goodhue were schoolboy stars too but went backwards at the Crusaders. Maybe they have finally decided to give another poach Levi Aumua the ball?
13 Go to commentsJoe S has some talent to pick from. The Reds loosies look the best in Super? Aus might just give Razor a headache this year. Int. experience v Cantab greenhorn:) Should be fun.
13 Go to commentsEnd to end play, “THE FANS” this game was entertainment of the best. The conditions added to the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsSorry to say, but sadly the sadas were just ordinary and havilli at 10 as an abs selection just won’t cut it. He’s better suited in the centre’s and is a victim of past charge down kicks, he’s too slow under pressure. There’s better talent further north and I don’t mean dmac however I believe razor will sort him out. A feature of his presents on the park is the fact that the guys will follow him.
13 Go to commentsMarler was brilliant throughout both in the scrum and open play. His slap made virtually no contact with Ramos who milked it for a penalty when he could have been a decent sportsman and laughed it off, it was non-violent and shouldn't have been penalised. Smith failed repeatedly to kick when necessary and put up a couple of bombs into the TLS 22 that just handed back possession at key moments to the other side.
3 Go to commentsCros was outstanding and rightly awarded France TVs player of the match award. Mallia was brilliant as usual (the y is below the 6 on a UK keyboard and he deserves better than that). Level also seems to have been scored harshly as he walked the ball into touch under pressure from a Lynagh kick from well outside his own half which should never have led to a 50-22. Agree with BullShark that Dupont, while class at times, seemed to go missing for patches in the second half with props, hookers and wings frequently filling in at 9 as he couldn't get off the deck and up to the next ruck on time. A 7 by his standards at best, his kicking was also too long, too often. Kinghorn's overall contribution was worth well more than a five.
4 Go to commentsThe Harlequins team must be in minus figures. Did the reporter actually watch the game?
4 Go to commentsHow on earth did Walker escape a red card? Not dangerous? Dupont has his face in a mask earlier this season. Shocking decision. What is the point of TMOs? We had the Fassi ‘non-penalty try’ yesterday and now this.
2 Go to commentsCould have been a different result but yet again French tv able to affect the result by not showing the very clear high shot on harlequin centre if this would have been on a French player would have been on screen at least five times
3 Go to commentsAmazing. The losing team’s ratings are higher than the winning team’s. Mallia definitely didn’t deserve a y. What game were you watching? Should have got a w or an x. ADP hardly featured in that second half. At one point I wondered when he’d been subbed. Seems to me as if he gets an automatic 9 just for getting onto the team sheet.
4 Go to commentsI’m sorry. That second half was far from enthralling. It was painful to watch.
2 Go to commentsVery generous! If you’d missed the game, reading this you’d conclude that it was the Quins front row that cost them the game. Marler getting a blanket 6 for his demented contribution to the game. Puzzling.
3 Go to commentsCan’t see Toulouse beating Leinster at this rate.
7 Go to commentsADP was having a very average game until winning that penalty for Toulouse, sticking his big head in the way. “The head of God”?
7 Go to comments