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'Wales should have been ahead in the first half': Hope for Gatland
It may seem counter-intuitive to take positives from a half that was lost by 20 points to zero, but stats appear to be on the side of Wales following their showing against Scotland on Saturday.
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Scotland surged to a 20-0 lead against Warren Gatland’s side at half-time in the Guinness Six Nations clash at the Principality Stadium, leaving many scrambling to scroll through the history books at the break to look up various record defeats.
The scoreboard was very clearly not on Wales’ side after 40 minutes, but curiously there was one stat that was- and one that will give Gatland plenty of hope moving forward.
On BBC’s Scrum V on Sunday, Sean Holley revealed that Wales had actually accumulated more Expected Points in that first half, with 17.9 points to Scotland’s 14.4.
“Wales should have been ahead in the first half and, ultimately, should have won the game,” he said, which is a statement that has not necessarily been well-received online.
🏴 “Wales should have been ahead in the first half and, ultimately, should have won the game.”@_SeanHolley walks us through expected points… 📈
📺 Tune in LIVE on BBC Two#BBCRugby #SixNations pic.twitter.com/bBPSiS9mOd
— BBC ScrumV (@BBCScrumV) February 4, 2024
The positive for Gatland is that, despite a very lopsided scoreline at the break, it was a case of Wales underachieving whilst Scotland overachieved. Holley said that XP takes into account “entries into the 22, possession, territory, carries, line breaks,” showing the chances were there for Wales, they just did not capitalise on them. That is a promising position that most teams would not usually find themselves in after shipping a point every two minutes.
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What is even more bizarre is that Wales’ XP in the second half was lower than the first, down to 14.7, suggesting they hugely overachieved in that second 40. Meanwhile, Scotland performed as expected after the break, scoring seven points with an XP of 7.4, doing enough to hold on.
In total, that suggests Wales should have actually won the match, or at least had the opportunities to win the match. Of course, being wasteful is not a desirable trait, but it could be worse.
Scotland’s win will go down as one of the strangest wins in recent Six Nations history, but these stats are perhaps even stranger.
Comments on RugbyPass
Ben Smith you really make some good points in this article, the Springboks were not close to perfect and good still beat the All Blacks, imagine if they were as good as they were against France what a hiding the All Blacks would have gotten… maybe another Twickenham drubbing
219 Go to commentsIt is a good argument to keep the Rebels for one more year but also isnt this just opening the door as well for keeping them beyond 2025. If they can create some sort of financial stability in the next year and if their performances lift as they have this season then how would RA even cull them after that? It might be the most cost effective decision at this stage and perhaps many people are guilty of keeping relationships going because of the cost to decouple but then again when does that ever work out well?
16 Go to commentsDear Ben Smith you are a genius! God please become the next all blacks coach that can take on the mighty BOKS. Your rugby acumen is second to none - imagine your dads sperm bounced as unfortunately as that oval ball did….we would not be blessed with your presence. Just as the all blacks were missing a man you too are missing a chromosome for 80% of your life, so your insights are not only profound but ring true from your own experiences. Just as the TMO interfered with citing an illegal pass I am sure your local authorities interfere with your illegal passes you make on women - How dare they!!! God forbid that rugby be officiated fairly. You are the right man for the job. Next all blacks coach is here ladies and gentlemen Miss Ben Smith (He/She/They/IT)
219 Go to commentsHuge engine this guy and great to see him back ..The amount of clean outs he does at the ruck are ridiculous !!
3 Go to commentsThe level of desperation in this article is just embarrassing.
219 Go to commentsSome silly trolling in the comments.
9 Go to commentsEverywhere you turn some irish journo is advocating Ireland as the greatest, reasoning that the wc is a 4 year cycle event so, they say wc doesn’t matter it’s the rugby in between that should account for the accolade. If there was no wc then some substance could be gained, however in my opinion the moment that defined Ireland’s fate against the abs was 37 phases of repeated head bashing against a brick wall. If a change in strategy or a tinker with the game plan was executed then things could've been vastly different. And to point a finger the let down was in the hands of the number 10.
44 Go to commentsI have heard it asked if RA is essentially one of the part owners and I suppose therefor should be on the other side of these two parties. If they purchased the rebels and guaranteed them, and are responsible enough they incur Rebels penalties, where is this line drawn? Seems rough to have to pay a penalty for something were your involvement sees you on the side of the conned party, the creditors. If the Rebels directors themselves have given the club their money, 6mil worth right, why aren’t they also listed as sitting with RA and the Tax office? And the legal threat was either way, new Rebels or defunct, I can’t see how RA assume the threat was less likely enough to warrant comment about it in this article. Surely RA ignore that and only worry about whether they can defend it or not, which they have reported as being comfortable with. So in effect wouldn’t it be more accurate to say there is no further legal threat (or worry) in denying the deal. Unless the directors have reneged on that. > Returns of a Japanese team or even Argentinean side, the Jaguares, were said to be on the cards, as were the ideas of standing up brand new teams in Hawaii or even Los Angeles – crazy ideas that seemingly forgot the time zone issues often cited as a turn-off for viewers when the competition contained teams from South Africa. Those timezones are great for SR and are what will probably be needed to unlock its future (cant see it remaining without _atleast _help from Aus), day games here are night games on the West Coast of america, were potential viewers triple, win win. With one of the best and easiest ways to unlock that being to play games or a host a team there. Less good the further across Aus you get though. Jaguares wouldn’t be the same Jaguares, but I still would think it’s better having them than keeping the Rebels. The other options aren’t really realistic 25’ options, no. From reading this authors last article I think if the new board can get the investment they seem to be confident in, you keeping them simply for the amount of money they’ll be investing in the game. Then ditch them later if they’re not good enough without such a high budget. Use them to get Jaguares reintergration stronger, with more key players on board, and have success drive success.
16 Go to commentsYeah, and ours is waaay bigger than yours. Just as you's get a semi…oh hold on that never happens
44 Go to commentsLove watching
1 Go to commentsThe Melbourne Rebels lineout is a complete disaster so not surprisingly a kiwi coach of the Wallabies hires the worst lineout coach in the country and a foreigner to boot. No surprises whatsoever here…….
6 Go to commentsThank your for wasting 2 minutes of my life Daniel. There is a useful message in there somewhere but your delivery sucks.
7 Go to commentsBen Smith, you are cry baby
219 Go to commentsSux that homophobia is still a thing though. I wonder how many players who could have become legends never kept playing rugby because they felt unwelcome.
7 Go to commentsCrazy he’s only 28, feel like he’s been around forever - don’t mind the move, safe pair of hands and creates depth in a thin position for ABs. Hopefully aides Kemara’s growth also without thrusting too much responsibility on him
1 Go to commentsMen should show strength and be mean, but they should be able to show emotion to those close yo them in certain times, birth of your child, death of family, proud moment. This article is stupid
7 Go to commentsWhat a weak article…absolute drivel and clickbait, well done. Will stick to rugby365 thanks
7 Go to commentsHonest, discipline, humility… Priceless.
2 Go to commentsSo many excuses. No mention of the SA number 2 being taken out illegally in the 2nd minute. That act of foul play had a massive impact on the SA game. Face it, NZ play pretty dirty very regularly, and it’s only since 2016 they’ve been held to higher officiating standards via stricter officiating and TMO reviews. They deserved to have a man down. Sorry. Fix the yellow and red cards and NZ will win more RWCs. Plus, there WAS a knock on invalidating the one try, so it was NOT a try. Period. Here’s a Kleenex…
219 Go to commentsOverheard conversation between NZ and SA rugby fans everywhere: We’re the greatest! No! we’re the greatest! We’re the greatest! No we’re the greatest! Ireland are arrogant! True but they beat you! We’re the greatest! No! we’re the greatest! Etc. etc, etc.
44 Go to comments